IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/zbw/glodps/69.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Macroeconomic Determinants of International Migration to the UK

Author

Listed:
  • Forte, Giuseppe
  • Portes, Jonathan

Abstract

This paper examines the determinants of long-term international migration to the UK; we explore the extent to which migration is driven by macroeconomic variables (GDP per capita, unemployment rate) as well as law and policy (the existence of “free movement” rights for EEA nationals). We find a very large impact from free movement within the EEA. We also find that macroeconomic variables – UK GDP growth and GDP at origin – are significant drivers of migration flows; evidence for the impact of the unemployment rate in countries of origin, or of the exchange rate, however, is weak. We conclude that, while future migration flows will be driven by a number of factors, macroeconomic and otherwise, Brexit and the end of free movement will result in a large fall in immigration from EEA countries to the UK.

Suggested Citation

  • Forte, Giuseppe & Portes, Jonathan, 2017. "Macroeconomic Determinants of International Migration to the UK," GLO Discussion Paper Series 69, Global Labor Organization (GLO).
  • Handle: RePEc:zbw:glodps:69
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.econstor.eu/bitstream/10419/157923/1/GLO_DP_0069.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Monique Ebell, 2016. "Assessing the Impact of Trade Agreements on Trade," National Institute Economic Review, National Institute of Economic and Social Research, vol. 238(1), pages 31-42, November.
    2. James E. Anderson & Eric van Wincoop, 2003. "Gravity with Gravitas: A Solution to the Border Puzzle," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 93(1), pages 170-192, March.
    3. Michel Beine & Pauline Bourgeon & Jean-Charles Bricongne, 2013. "Aggregate Fluctuations and International Migration," CESifo Working Paper Series 4379, CESifo.
    4. Schmidheiny, Kurt & Brülhart, Marius, 2011. "On the equivalence of location choice models: Conditional logit, nested logit and Poisson," Journal of Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 69(2), pages 214-222, March.
    5. Sekou Keita, 2016. "Bilateral real exchange rates and migration," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 48(31), pages 2937-2951, July.
    6. Michel Beine & Simone Bertoli & Jesús Fernández-Huertas Moraga, 2016. "A Practitioners’ Guide to Gravity Models of International Migration," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 39(4), pages 496-512, April.
    7. Peter Egger & Mario Larch & Kevin E. Staub & Rainer Winkelmann, 2011. "The Trade Effects of Endogenous Preferential Trade Agreements," American Economic Journal: Economic Policy, American Economic Association, vol. 3(3), pages 113-143, August.
    8. Chudik, Alexander & Pesaran, M. Hashem, 2015. "Common correlated effects estimation of heterogeneous dynamic panel data models with weakly exogenous regressors," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 188(2), pages 393-420.
    9. Michel Beine & Pauline Bourgeon & Jean‐Charles Bricongne, 2019. "Aggregate Fluctuations and International Migration," Scandinavian Journal of Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 121(1), pages 117-152, January.
    10. Jonathan Portes & Giuseppe Forte, 2017. "The economic impact of Brexit-induced reductions in migration," Oxford Review of Economic Policy, Oxford University Press, vol. 33(suppl_1), pages 31-44.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Laila Touhami Morghem & Khawlah Ali Abdalla Spetan, 2020. "Determinants of International Migration: An Applied Study on Selected Arab Countries (1995-2017)," International Journal of Economics and Financial Issues, Econjournals, vol. 10(2), pages 6-19.
    2. Benjamin Born & Gernot J. Müller & Moritz Schularick & Petr Sedlacek, 2017. "The Economic Consequences of the Brexit Vote," Discussion Papers 1738, Centre for Macroeconomics (CFM).
    3. Lewis, John & Swannell, Matt, 2018. "The macroeconomic determinants of migration," Bank of England working papers 729, Bank of England.
    4. Benjamin Born & Gernot Müller & Moritz Schularick & Petr Sedláček, 2017. "The Costs of Economic Nationalism: Evidence from the Brexit Experiment," CESifo Working Paper Series 6780, CESifo.
    5. Benjamin Born & Gernot J Müller & Moritz Schularick & Petr Sedláček, 2019. "The Costs of Economic Nationalism: Evidence from the Brexit Experiment," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 129(623), pages 2722-2744.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Lewis, John & Swannell, Matt, 2018. "The macroeconomic determinants of migration," Bank of England working papers 729, Bank of England.
    2. Brücker, Herbert & Bertoli, Simone & Fernández-Huertas Moraga, Jesús, 2013. "The European Crisis and Migration to Germany: Expectations and the Diversion of Migration Flows," VfS Annual Conference 2013 (Duesseldorf): Competition Policy and Regulation in a Global Economic Order 79693, Verein für Socialpolitik / German Economic Association.
    3. Michel Beine & Simone Bertoli & Jesús Fernández-Huertas Moraga, 2016. "A Practitioners’ Guide to Gravity Models of International Migration," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 39(4), pages 496-512, April.
    4. Rémi Bazillier & Francesco Magris & Daniel Mirza, 2017. "Out-migration and economic cycles," Review of World Economics (Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv), Springer;Institut für Weltwirtschaft (Kiel Institute for the World Economy), vol. 153(1), pages 39-69, February.
    5. Laura Serlenga & Yongcheol Shin, 2021. "Gravity models of interprovincial migration flows in Canada with hierarchical multifactor structure," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 60(1), pages 365-390, January.
    6. Thu Hien DAO & Frédéric DOCQUIER & Mathilde MAUREL & Pierre SCHAUS, 2017. "Global Migration in the 20th and 21st Centuries: the Unstoppable Force of Demography," Working Paper 96d89f28-0e80-4703-9b33-6, Agence française de développement.
    7. Bertoli, Simone & Fernández-Huertas Moraga, Jesús, 2013. "Multilateral resistance to migration," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 102(C), pages 79-100.
    8. Head, Keith & Mayer, Thierry, 2014. "Gravity Equations: Workhorse,Toolkit, and Cookbook," Handbook of International Economics, in: Gopinath, G. & Helpman, . & Rogoff, K. (ed.), Handbook of International Economics, edition 1, volume 4, chapter 0, pages 131-195, Elsevier.
    9. Fatica, Serena, 2009. "Taxation and the quality of institutions: asymmetric effects on FDI," MPRA Paper 24179, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised Jun 2010.
    10. Peter Egger & Martin Gassebner, 2015. "International terrorism as a trade impediment?," Oxford Economic Papers, Oxford University Press, vol. 67(1), pages 42-62.
    11. Christian Elleby & Wusheng Yu & Qian Yu, 2018. "The Chinese Export Displacement Effect Revisited," IFRO Working Paper 2018/02, University of Copenhagen, Department of Food and Resource Economics.
    12. Hugo Rojas-Romagosa & Johannes Bollen, 2018. "Estimating migration changes from the EU’s free movement of people principle," CPB Discussion Paper 385, CPB Netherlands Bureau for Economic Policy Analysis.
    13. Bertoli, Simone & Marchetta, Francesca, 2015. "Bringing It All Back Home – Return Migration and Fertility Choices," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 65(C), pages 27-40.
    14. Zovanga L Kone & Maggie Y Liu & Aaditya Mattoo & Caglar Ozden & Siddharth Sharma, 2018. "Internal borders and migration in India," Journal of Economic Geography, Oxford University Press, vol. 18(4), pages 729-759.
    15. Ruxanda Berlinschi & Ani Harutyunyan, 2016. "Do migrants think differently? Evidence from East European and post-Soviet states," LICOS Discussion Papers 38116, LICOS - Centre for Institutions and Economic Performance, KU Leuven.
    16. Daniel Meierrieks & Laura Renner, 2017. "Stymied ambition: does a lack of economic freedom lead to migration?," Journal of Population Economics, Springer;European Society for Population Economics, vol. 30(3), pages 977-1005, July.
    17. Olivier Damette & Mathilde Maurel & Michael A. Stemmer, 2016. "What does it take to grow out of recession? An error-correction approach towards growth convergence of European and transition countries," Post-Print halshs-01318131, HAL.
    18. Florence Huart & Médédé Tchakpalla, 2019. "Labor Market Conditions and Geographic Mobility in the Eurozone," Comparative Economic Studies, Palgrave Macmillan;Association for Comparative Economic Studies, vol. 61(2), pages 263-284, June.
    19. Tim Hatton, 2013. "The Slump and Immigration Policy in Europe," CEPR Discussion Papers 686, Centre for Economic Policy Research, Research School of Economics, Australian National University.
    20. Bertoli, Simone & Brücker, Herbert & Fernández-Huertas Moraga, Jesús, 2016. "The European crisis and migration to Germany," Regional Science and Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 60(C), pages 61-72.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Brexit; EU; Immigration; UK;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • F22 - International Economics - - International Factor Movements and International Business - - - International Migration
    • J61 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Mobility, Unemployment, Vacancies, and Immigrant Workers - - - Geographic Labor Mobility; Immigrant Workers
    • J68 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Mobility, Unemployment, Vacancies, and Immigrant Workers - - - Public Policy

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:zbw:glodps:69. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: . General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/glabode.html .

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/glabode.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service hosted by the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis . RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.