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Macroeconomic Determinants of International Migration to the UK

Listed author(s):
  • Forte, Giuseppe

    ()

    (King's College London)

  • Portes, Jonathan

    ()

    (King's College London)

This paper examines the determinants of long-term international migration to the UK; we explore the extent to which migration is driven by macroeconomic variables (GDP per capita, unemployment rate) as well as law and policy (the existence of "free movement" rights for EEA nationals). We find a very large impact from free movement within the EEA. We also find that macroeconomic variables – UK GDP growth and GDP at origin – are significant drivers of migration flows; evidence for the impact of the unemployment rate in countries of origin, or of the exchange rate, however, is weak. We conclude that, while future migration flows will be driven by a number of factors, macroeconomic and otherwise, Brexit and the end of free movement will result in a large fall in immigration from EEA countries to the UK.

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File URL: http://ftp.iza.org/dp10802.pdf
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Paper provided by Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA) in its series IZA Discussion Papers with number 10802.

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Length: 35 pages
Date of creation: May 2017
Handle: RePEc:iza:izadps:dp10802
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  1. Monique Ebell, 2016. "Assessing the Impact of Trade Agreements on Trade," National Institute Economic Review, National Institute of Economic and Social Research, vol. 238(1), pages 31-42, November.
  2. James E. Anderson & Eric van Wincoop, 2003. "Gravity with Gravitas: A Solution to the Border Puzzle," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 93(1), pages 170-192, March.
  3. Beine, M. & Bricongne,J-C. & Bourgeon, P., 2013. "Aggregate Fluctuations and International Migration," Working papers 453, Banque de France.
  4. Schmidheiny, Kurt & Brülhart, Marius, 2011. "On the equivalence of location choice models: Conditional logit, nested logit and Poisson," Journal of Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 69(2), pages 214-222, March.
  5. Peter Egger & Mario Larch & Kevin E. Staub & Rainer Winkelmann, 2011. "The Trade Effects of Endogenous Preferential Trade Agreements," American Economic Journal: Economic Policy, American Economic Association, vol. 3(3), pages 113-143, August.
  6. Chudik, Alexander & Pesaran, M. Hashem, 2015. "Common correlated effects estimation of heterogeneous dynamic panel data models with weakly exogenous regressors," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 188(2), pages 393-420.
  7. repec:oup:oxford:v:33:y:2017:i:suppl_1:p:s31-s44. is not listed on IDEAS
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