IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/iza/izadps/dp16156.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Expecting Brexit and UK Migration: Should I Go?

Author

Listed:
  • Di Iasio, Valentina

    (University of Southampton)

  • Wahba, Jackline

    (University of Southampton)

Abstract

This paper examines the impact of the 2016 UK referendum and expecting Brexit on migration flows and net migration in the UK. We employ a Difference-in-Differences strategy and compare EU migration to non-EU migration before and immediately after the UK referendum of June 2016. We also investigate the potential secondary effects of the referendum on non-EU migrants by using different methodologies and various robustness checks. Our results show that after the referendum (i) migration inflows from the EU declined, (ii) emigration of EU migrants increased and (iii) net migration flows from EU countries to the UK fell. Our results are not driven by the potential spillover impacts on non-EU migrant workers. Overall, the findings show that migration in the UK declined after the Brexit referendum, even before any policy change.

Suggested Citation

  • Di Iasio, Valentina & Wahba, Jackline, 2023. "Expecting Brexit and UK Migration: Should I Go?," IZA Discussion Papers 16156, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    • Handle: RePEc:iza:izadps:dp16156
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://docs.iza.org/dp16156.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Assaf Razin & Jackline Wahba, 2015. "Welfare Magnet Hypothesis, Fiscal Burden, and Immigration Skill Selectivity," Scandinavian Journal of Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 117(2), pages 369-402, April.
    2. Michèle V. K. Belot & Timothy J. Hatton, 2012. "Immigrant Selection in the OECD," Scandinavian Journal of Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 114(4), pages 1105-1128, December.
    3. Chassamboulli, Andri & Peri, Giovanni, 2020. "The economic effect of immigration policies: analyzing and simulating the U.S. case," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 114(C).
    4. Henrik Kleven & Camille Landais & Mathilde Muñoz & Stefanie Stantcheva, 2020. "Taxation and Migration: Evidence and Policy Implications," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 34(2), pages 119-142, Spring.
    5. Jane Falkingham & Corrado Giulietti & Jackline Wahba & Chuhong Wang, 2021. "The impact of Brexit on international students’ return intentions," Manchester School, University of Manchester, vol. 89(2), pages 139-171, March.
    6. Bijwaard, Govert E. & Wahba, Jackline, 2014. "Do high-income or low-income immigrants leave faster?," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 108(C), pages 54-68.
    7. Ole Agersnap & Amalie Jensen & Henrik Kleven, 2020. "The Welfare Magnet Hypothesis: Evidence from an Immigrant Welfare Scheme in Denmark," American Economic Review: Insights, American Economic Association, vol. 2(4), pages 527-542, December.
    8. Scott R. Baker & Nicholas Bloom & Steven J. Davis, 2016. "Measuring Economic Policy Uncertainty," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 131(4), pages 1593-1636.
    9. Christian Dustmann & Tommaso Frattini & Ian P. Preston, 2013. "The Effect of Immigration along the Distribution of Wages," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 80(1), pages 145-173.
    10. Nicholas Bloom & Philip Bunn & Scarlet Chen & Paul Mizen & Pawel Smietanka & Greg Thwaites & Garry Young, 2018. "Brexit and Uncertainty: Insights from the Decision Maker Panel," Fiscal Studies, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 39(4), pages 555-580, December.
    11. Timothy Hatton, 2005. "Explaining trends in UK immigration," Journal of Population Economics, Springer;European Society for Population Economics, vol. 18(4), pages 719-740, November.
    12. Christian Dustmann & Joseph-Simon Görlach, 2016. "The Economics of Temporary Migrations," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 54(1), pages 98-136, March.
    13. Dhingra, Swati & Machin, Stephen & Overman, Henry, 2017. "Local Economic Effects of Brexit," National Institute Economic Review, National Institute of Economic and Social Research, vol. 242, pages 24-36, November.
    14. Anna Mayda, 2010. "International migration: a panel data analysis of the determinants of bilateral flows," Journal of Population Economics, Springer;European Society for Population Economics, vol. 23(4), pages 1249-1274, September.
    15. George J. Borjas & Bernt Bratsberg, 2021. "Who Leaves? The Outmigration Of The Foreign-Born," World Scientific Book Chapters, in: Foundational Essays in Immigration Economics, chapter 5, pages 93-104, World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd..
    16. Michael A. Clemens & Ethan G. Lewis & Hannah M. Postel, 2018. "Immigration Restrictions as Active Labor Market Policy: Evidence from the Mexican Bracero Exclusion," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 108(6), pages 1468-1487, June.
    17. Michel Beine & Pauline Bourgeon & Jean‐Charles Bricongne, 2019. "Aggregate Fluctuations and International Migration," Scandinavian Journal of Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 121(1), pages 117-152, January.
    18. Michel Beine & Simone Bertoli & Jesús Fernández-Huertas Moraga, 2016. "A Practitioners’ Guide to Gravity Models of International Migration," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 39(4), pages 496-512, April.
    19. Christian Dustmann & Tommaso Frattini, 2014. "The Fiscal Effects of Immigration to the UK," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 124(580), pages 593-643, November.
    20. Swati Dhingra & Thomas Sampson, 2022. "Expecting Brexit," Annual Review of Economics, Annual Reviews, vol. 14(1), pages 495-519, August.
    21. Erhan Artuc & Caglar Ozden, 2018. "Transit Migration: All Roads Lead to America," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 128(612), pages 306-334, July.
    22. Swati Dhingra & Gianmarco Ottaviano & John Van Reenen & Jonathan Wadsworth, 2016. "Brexit and the Impact of Immigration on the UK," CEP Brexit Analysis Papers 05, Centre for Economic Performance, LSE.
    23. Bloom, Nicholas & Bunn, Philip & Chen, Scarlet & Mizen, Paul & Smietanka, Pawel & Thwaites, Gregory, 2019. "The impact of Brexit on UK firms," Bank of England working papers 818, Bank of England.
    24. Grogger, Jeffrey & Hanson, Gordon H., 2011. "Income maximization and the selection and sorting of international migrants," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 95(1), pages 42-57, May.
    25. Bertoli, Simone & Fernández-Huertas Moraga, Jesús, 2015. "The size of the cliff at the border," Regional Science and Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 51(C), pages 1-6.
    26. Michel Beine & Simone Bertoli & Jesús Fernández-Huertas Moraga, 2016. "A Practitioners’ Guide to Gravity Models of International Migration," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 39(4), pages 496-512, April.
    27. Martin Huber & Andreas Steinmayr, 2021. "A Framework for Separating Individual-Level Treatment Effects From Spillover Effects," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 39(2), pages 422-436, March.
    28. Assaf Razin & Jackline Wahba, 2015. "Welfare Magnet Hypothesis, Fiscal Burden, and Immigration Skill Selectivity," Scandinavian Journal of Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 117(2), pages 369-402, April.
    29. Marco Manacorda & Alan Manning & Jonathan Wadsworth, 2012. "The Impact Of Immigration On The Structure Of Wages: Theory And Evidence From Britain," Journal of the European Economic Association, European Economic Association, vol. 10(1), pages 120-151, February.
    30. Mathias Czaika & Hein De Haas, 2013. "The Effectiveness of Immigration Policies," Population and Development Review, The Population Council, Inc., vol. 39(3), pages 487-508, September.
    31. Helena Skyt Nielsen & Nina Smith & Aycan Çelikaksoy, 2009. "The Effect of Marriage on Education of Immigrants: Evidence from a Policy Reform Restricting Marriage Migration," Scandinavian Journal of Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 111(3), pages 457-486, September.
    32. Carr, Joel & Clifton-Sprigg, Joanna & James, Jonathan & Vujic, Suncica, 2020. "Love Thy Neighbour? Brexit and Hate Crime," IZA Discussion Papers 13902, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    33. Bratu, Cristina & Dahlberg, Matz & Engdahl, Mattias & Nikolka, Till, 2020. "Spillover effects of stricter immigration policies," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 190(C).
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Piserà, Stefano, 2024. "Hidden effects of Brexit," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 67(PB).
    2. Drinkwater, Stephen & Blackaby, David H. & Robinson, Catherine, 2024. "What Mattered Most in the Brexit Vote? Evidence from Detailed Regression and Decomposition Analysis," IZA Discussion Papers 16841, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    3. Castro-Pires, Henrique & Mello, Marco & Moscelli, Giuseppe, 2023. "Foreign Nurses and Hospital Quality: Evidence from Brexit," IZA Discussion Papers 16616, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    4. Clifton-Sprigg, Joanna & Homburg, Ines & James, Jonathan & Vujic, Suncica, 2023. "A Bad Break-up? Assessing the Effects of the 2016 Brexit Referendum on Migration," IZA Discussion Papers 16468, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Vincenzo Bove & Georgios Efthyvoulou & Harry Pickard, 2023. "Government ideology and international migration," Scandinavian Journal of Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 125(1), pages 107-138, January.
    2. Albert MILLOGO & Ines TROJETTE & Nicolas PÉRIDY, 2021. "Are government policies efficient to regulate immigration? Evidence from France," Region et Developpement, Region et Developpement, LEAD, Universite du Sud - Toulon Var, vol. 53, pages 23-49.
    3. Burzyński, Michał, 2018. "Time, Space, And Skills In Designing Migration Policy," Journal of Demographic Economics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 84(4), pages 355-417, December.
    4. Di Iasio, Valentina & Wahba, Jackline, 2023. "Natives' Attitudes and Immigration Flows to Europe," IZA Discussion Papers 15942, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    5. Corneo, Giacomo & Neidhöfer, Guido, 2021. "Income redistribution and self-selection of immigrants," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 198(C).
    6. Bredtmann, Julia & Nowotny, Klaus & Otten, Sebastian, 2020. "Linguistic distance, networks and migrants’ regional location choice," Labour Economics, Elsevier, vol. 65(C).
    7. Di Iasio, Valentina & Wahba, Jackline, 2024. "The Determinants of Refugees’ Destinations: Where do refugees locate within the EU?," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 177(C).
    8. Beverelli, Cosimo & Orefice, Gianluca, 2019. "Migration deflection: The role of Preferential Trade Agreements," Regional Science and Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 79(C).
    9. Michel Beine & Luisito Bertinelli & Rana Cömertpay & Anastasia Litina & Jean-François Maystadt, 2020. "The Gravity Model of Forced Displacement Using Mobile Phone Data," DEM Discussion Paper Series 20-13, Department of Economics at the University of Luxembourg.
    10. Julia Bredtmann & Klaus Nowotny & Sebastian Otten, 2017. "Linguistic Distance, Networks and Migrants’ Regional Location Choice," RF Berlin - CReAM Discussion Paper Series 1712, Rockwool Foundation Berlin (RF Berlin) - Centre for Research and Analysis of Migration (CReAM).
    11. Mathias Czaika & Christopher R. Parsons, 2017. "The Gravity of High-Skilled Migration Policies," Demography, Springer;Population Association of America (PAA), vol. 54(2), pages 603-630, April.
    12. Govert E. Bijwaard & Jackline Wahba, 2023. "Return Versus onward Migration: Go Back or Move On?," Review of Income and Wealth, International Association for Research in Income and Wealth, vol. 69(3), pages 640-667, September.
    13. Beine, Michel & Bertinelli, Luisito & Cömertpay, Rana & Litina, Anastasia & Maystadt, Jean-François, 2021. "A gravity analysis of refugee mobility using mobile phone data," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 150(C).
    14. Cosimo Beverelli, 2022. "Pull factors for migration: The impact of migrant integration policies," Economics and Politics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 34(1), pages 171-191, March.
    15. Aziz, Nusrate & Chowdhury, Murshed & Cooray, Arusha, 2022. "Why do people from wealthy countries migrate?," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 73(C).
    16. Zovanga L Kone & Maggie Y Liu & Aaditya Mattoo & Caglar Ozden & Siddharth Sharma, 2018. "Internal borders and migration in India," Journal of Economic Geography, Oxford University Press, vol. 18(4), pages 729-759.
    17. Anthony Edo & Lionel Ragot & Hillel Rapoport & Sulin Sardoschau & Andreas Steinmayr & Arthur Sweetman, 2020. "An introduction to the economics of immigration in OECD countries," Canadian Journal of Economics/Revue canadienne d'économique, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 53(4), pages 1365-1403, November.
    18. Zaiceva, A. & Zimmermann, K.F., 2016. "Migration and the Demographic Shift," Handbook of the Economics of Population Aging, in: Piggott, John & Woodland, Alan (ed.), Handbook of the Economics of Population Aging, edition 1, volume 1, chapter 0, pages 119-177, Elsevier.
    19. Hatton, Timothy J., 2014. "The economics of international migration: A short history of the debate," Labour Economics, Elsevier, vol. 30(C), pages 43-50.
    20. Guo, Rufei & Zhang, Junsen & Zhou, Minghai, 2024. "The demography of the great migration in China," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 167(C).

    More about this item

    Keywords

    EU migration; UK migration; Brexit;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • F22 - International Economics - - International Factor Movements and International Business - - - International Migration
    • J61 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Mobility, Unemployment, Vacancies, and Immigrant Workers - - - Geographic Labor Mobility; Immigrant Workers
    • J48 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Particular Labor Markets - - - Particular Labor Markets; Public Policy

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:iza:izadps:dp16156. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Holger Hinte (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/izaaade.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.