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Expecting Brexit and UK migration: Should I go?

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  • Di Iasio, Valentina
  • Wahba, Jackline

Abstract

This paper examines the impact of the 2016 UK referendum and expecting Brexit on migration flows and net migration in the UK. We employ a Difference-in-Differences strategy and compare EU migration to non-EU migration before and immediately after the UK referendum of June 2016. We also investigate the potential secondary effects of the referendum on non-EU migrants by using different methodologies and various robustness checks. Our results show that after the referendum (i) migration inflows from the EU declined, (ii) emigration of EU migrants increased and (iii) net migration flows from EU countries to the UK fell. Our results are not driven by the potential spillover impacts on non-EU migrant workers. Overall, the findings show that migration in the UK declined after the Brexit referendum, even before any policy change.

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  • Di Iasio, Valentina & Wahba, Jackline, 2023. "Expecting Brexit and UK migration: Should I go?," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 157(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:eecrev:v:157:y:2023:i:c:s0014292123001137
    DOI: 10.1016/j.euroecorev.2023.104484
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    Cited by:

    1. Castro-Pires, Henrique & Mello, Marco & Moscelli, Giuseppe, 2023. "Foreign Nurses and Hospital Quality: Evidence from Brexit," IZA Discussion Papers 16616, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    2. Clifton-Sprigg, Joanna & Homburg, Ines & James, Jonathan & Vujic, Suncica, 2023. "A Bad Break-up? Assessing the Effects of the 2016 Brexit Referendum on Migration," IZA Discussion Papers 16468, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    3. Drinkwater, Stephen & Blackaby, David H. & Robinson, Catherine, 2024. "What Mattered Most in the Brexit Vote? Evidence from Detailed Regression and Decomposition Analysis," IZA Discussion Papers 16841, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    UK migration; EU migration; Brexit;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • F22 - International Economics - - International Factor Movements and International Business - - - International Migration
    • J61 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Mobility, Unemployment, Vacancies, and Immigrant Workers - - - Geographic Labor Mobility; Immigrant Workers
    • J48 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Particular Labor Markets - - - Particular Labor Markets; Public Policy

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