IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/
MyIDEAS: Login to save this paper or follow this series

Credit portfolio modelling and its effect on capital requirements

  • Bülbül, Dilek
  • Lambert, Claudia
Registered author(s):

    The subprime crisis revealed that the adoption of suitable systems for the management of credit risk is of utmost concern. The Basel Committee on Banking Supervision (2009) advises banks to use credit portfolio models with caution when assessing the capital adequacy. This paper investigates whether decisions on total risk-based capital ratios are channeled through credit portfolio models. In other words, do credit portfolio models serve as a relevant determinant for banks to adjust their capital allocation? To empirically test the relationship we measure the average treatment effect by conducting a quasi-natural experiment in which we employ a propensity-matching approach to panel data. We find that the adoption of credit portfolio models positively and significantly affects regulatory capital decisions of banks both directly following the introduction as well as over a longer time horizon. By now it is commonly accepted that overreliance on credit portfolio models composes a fundamental cause of the current financial crisis. Our results put the debate about overreliance on quantitative models in a new perspective. This knowledge may prove valuable for regulators who aim to understand bank behaviour and thus advance regulation.

    If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.

    File URL: http://econstor.eu/bitstream/10419/57776/1/715125044.pdf
    Download Restriction: no

    Paper provided by Deutsche Bundesbank, Research Centre in its series Discussion Papers with number 11/2012.

    as
    in new window

    Length:
    Date of creation: 2012
    Date of revision:
    Handle: RePEc:zbw:bubdps:112012
    Contact details of provider: Postal: Postfach 10 06 02, 60006 Frankfurt
    Phone: 0 69 / 95 66 - 34 55
    Fax: 0 69 / 95 66 30 77
    Web page: http://www.bundesbank.de/
    Email:


    More information through EDIRC

    References listed on IDEAS
    Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:

    as in new window
    1. Carbo, Santiago & Humphrey, David & Maudos, Joaquin & Molyneux, Philip, 2006. "Cross-Country Comparisons of Competition and Pricing Power in European Banking," MPRA Paper 15258, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 2006.
    2. Buser, Stephen A & Chen, Andrew H & Kane, Edward J, 1981. "Federal Deposit Insurance, Regulatory Policy, and Optimal Bank Capital," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 36(1), pages 51-60, March.
    3. Jeffrey Smith & Petra Todd, 2003. "Does Matching Overcome Lalonde's Critique of Nonexperimental Estimators?," University of Western Ontario, CIBC Centre for Human Capital and Productivity Working Papers 20035, University of Western Ontario, CIBC Centre for Human Capital and Productivity.
    4. John H. Boyd & Gianni De Nicolã, 2005. "The Theory of Bank Risk Taking and Competition Revisited," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 60(3), pages 1329-1343, 06.
    5. Rafael Repullo, 2002. "Capital requirements, market power, and risk-taking in banking," Proceedings 809, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago.
    6. Antonio Nicolo’ & Loriana Pelizzon, 2006. "Credit Derivatives, Capital Requirements and Opaque OTC Markets," Working Papers 2006_58, Department of Economics, University of Venice "Ca' Foscari".
    7. Titman, Sheridan & Wessels, Roberto, 1988. " The Determinants of Capital Structure Choice," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 43(1), pages 1-19, March.
    8. Kim, Daesik & Santomero, Anthony M, 1988. " Risk in Banking and Capital Regulation," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 43(5), pages 1219-33, December.
    9. Jacques, Kevin & Nigro, Peter, 1997. "Risk-based capital, portfolio risk, and bank capital: A simultaneous equations approach," Journal of Economics and Business, Elsevier, vol. 49(6), pages 533-547.
    10. Reinhard H. Schmidt, 2009. "The Political Debate about Savings Banks," Schmalenbach Business Review (sbr), LMU Munich School of Management, vol. 61(4), pages 366-392, October.
    11. Frederick T. Furlong & Michael C. Keeley, 1987. "Bank capital regulation and asset risk," Economic Review, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, issue Spr, pages 20-40.
    12. Kareken, John H & Wallace, Neil, 1978. "Deposit Insurance and Bank Regulation: A Partial-Equilibrium Exposition," The Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 51(3), pages 413-38, July.
    13. repec:cup:cbooks:9780521586115 is not listed on IDEAS
    14. Bhattacharya, S. & Boot, A.W.A. & Thakor, A.V., 1995. "The Economics of Bank Regulation," Papers 9516, Centro de Estudios Monetarios Y Financieros-.
    15. John DiNardo & Justin L. Tobias, 2001. "Nonparametric Density and Regression Estimation," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 15(4), pages 11-28, Fall.
    16. Pederzoli, Chiara & Torricelli, Costanza, 2005. "Capital requirements and business cycle regimes: Forward-looking modelling of default probabilities," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 29(12), pages 3121-3140, December.
    17. Keeley, Michael C, 1990. "Deposit Insurance, Risk, and Market Power in Banking," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 80(5), pages 1183-1200, December.
    18. Reint Gropp & Florian Heider, 2010. "The Determinants of Bank Capital Structure," Review of Finance, European Finance Association, vol. 14(4), pages 587-622.
    19. Rajeev H. Dehejia & Sadek Wahba, 2002. "Propensity Score-Matching Methods For Nonexperimental Causal Studies," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 84(1), pages 151-161, February.
    20. Alan D. Morrison & Lucy White, 2005. "Crises and Capital Requirements in Banking," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 95(5), pages 1548-1572, December.
    21. Berger, Allen N. & Herring, Richard J. & Szego, Giorgio P., 1995. "The role of capital in financial institutions," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 19(3-4), pages 393-430, June.
    22. Minton, Bernadette & Stulz, Rene & Williamson, Rohan, 2008. "How Much Do Banks Use Credit Derivatives to Hedge Loans?," Working Paper Series 2008-1, Ohio State University, Charles A. Dice Center for Research in Financial Economics.
    23. Klaus Düllmann & Nancy Masschelein, 2007. "A Tractable Model to Measure Sector Concentration Risk in Credit Portfolios," Journal of Financial Services Research, Springer, vol. 32(1), pages 55-79, October.
    24. Robert B. Avery & Allen N. Berger, 1990. "Risk-based capital and deposit insurance reform," Working Paper 9101, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland.
    25. Jackson, Patricia & Perraudin, William, 2000. "Regulatory implications of credit risk modelling," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 24(1-2), pages 1-14, January.
    26. Jones, David, 2000. "Emerging problems with the Basel Capital Accord: Regulatory capital arbitrage and related issues," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 24(1-2), pages 35-58, January.
    27. Francisco Pérez García & Joaquín Maudos Villarroya & Juan Francisco Fernández de Guevara Radoselovics, 2002. "Market Power In European Banking Sectors," Working Papers. Serie EC 2002-05, Instituto Valenciano de Investigaciones Económicas, S.A. (Ivie).
    28. Cebenoyan, A. Sinan & Strahan, Philip E., 2004. "Risk management, capital structure and lending at banks," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 28(1), pages 19-43, January.
    29. Allen Berger & Leora Klapper & Rima Turk-Ariss, 2009. "Bank Competition and Financial Stability," Journal of Financial Services Research, Springer, vol. 35(2), pages 99-118, April.
    30. Franklin Allen & Elena Carletti & Robert Marquez, 0. "Credit Market Competition and Capital Regulation," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 24(4), pages 983-1018.
    31. William Lang & Julapa Jagtiani, 2010. "The Mortgage and Financial Crises: The Role of Credit Risk Management and Corporate Governance," Atlantic Economic Journal, International Atlantic Economic Society, vol. 38(3), pages 295-316, September.
    32. repec:cup:cbooks:9780521355643 is not listed on IDEAS
    33. Shrieves, Ronald E. & Dahl, Drew, 1992. "The relationship between risk and capital in commercial banks," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 16(2), pages 439-457, April.
    34. Lucy White & Alan D. Morrison, 2002. "Crises and Capital Requirements in Banking," OFRC Working Papers Series 2002fe05, Oxford Financial Research Centre.
    35. Shim, Jeungbo, 2010. "Capital-based regulation, portfolio risk and capital determination: Empirical evidence from the US property-liability insurers," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 34(10), pages 2450-2461, October.
    36. Anil Bangia & Francis X. Diebold & Til Schuermann, 2000. "Ratings Migration and the Business Cycle, With Application to Credit Portfolio Stress Testing," Center for Financial Institutions Working Papers 00-26, Wharton School Center for Financial Institutions, University of Pennsylvania.
    37. Wall, Larry D. & Peterson, David R., 1995. "Bank holding company capital targets in the early 1990s: The regulators versus the markets," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 19(3-4), pages 563-574, June.
    38. Calem, Paul & Rob, Rafael, 1999. "The Impact of Capital-Based Regulation on Bank Risk-Taking," Journal of Financial Intermediation, Elsevier, vol. 8(4), pages 317-352, October.
    39. Raj Aggarwal & Kevin T. Jacques, 1998. "Assessing the impact of prompt corrective action on bank capital and risk," Economic Policy Review, Federal Reserve Bank of New York, issue Oct, pages 23-32.
    40. Mathias Dewatripont & Jean Tirole, 1994. "The prudential regulation of banks," ULB Institutional Repository 2013/9539, ULB -- Universite Libre de Bruxelles.
    41. Alistair Milne & A Elizabeth Whalley, 1999. "Bank capital and risk taking," Bank of England working papers 90, Bank of England.
    42. Douglas W. Diamond & Raghuram G. Rajan, 2000. "A Theory of Bank Capital," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 55(6), pages 2431-2465, December.
    43. Dawood Ashraf & Yener Altunbas & John Goddard, 2007. "Who Transfers Credit Risk? Determinants of the Use of Credit Derivatives by Large US Banks," The European Journal of Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 13(5), pages 483-500.
    44. Rime, Bertrand, 2001. "Capital requirements and bank behaviour: Empirical evidence for Switzerland," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 25(4), pages 789-805, April.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    This item is not listed on Wikipedia, on a reading list or among the top items on IDEAS.

    When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:zbw:bubdps:112012. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (ZBW - German National Library of Economics)

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.

    If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    This information is provided to you by IDEAS at the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis using RePEc data.