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Climate Change, Internal Migration and the Future Spatial Distribution of Population: A Case Study of New Zealand

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Abstract

This paper evaluates the impact of climate change on the future spatial distribution of population in New Zealand, with a focus on the effects of climate variables on internal migration dynamics. Specifically, a gravity modelling framework is first used to identify climate variables that have statistically significant associations with internal migration. The gravity model is then embedded within a cohort-component population projection model to evaluate the effect of different climate change scenarios on regional populations. Three climate variables are found to have statistically significant associations with internal migration: (1) mean sea level pressure in the destination; (2) surface radiation in the origin; and (3) wind speed at ten metres at the destination. Including these variables in the population projection model makes a small difference to the regional population distribution, and the difference between different climate scenarios is negligible. Overall, the results suggest that, while statistically significant, climate change will have a negligible effect on the population distribution of New Zealand at the regional level.

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  • Michael P. Cameron, 2017. "Climate Change, Internal Migration and the Future Spatial Distribution of Population: A Case Study of New Zealand," Working Papers in Economics 17/03, University of Waikato.
  • Handle: RePEc:wai:econwp:17/03
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    Cited by:

    1. Rongwei Wu & Degang Yang & Lu Zhang & Jinwei Huo, 2018. "Spatio-Temporal Patterns and Determinants of Inter-Provincial Migration in China 1995–2015," Sustainability, MDPI, Open Access Journal, vol. 10(11), pages 1-22, October.
    2. Dets Igor A., 2020. "Possible Impact of Global Warming and Other Factors Affecting Migration in Russia with Emphasis on Siberia," Quaestiones Geographicae, Sciendo, vol. 39(3), pages 111-123, September.
    3. Qin Ji & Jianping Yang & Can Wang & Hongju Chen & Qingshan He & Zhenqi Sun & Quntao Duan & Yao Li, 2021. "The Risk of the Population in a Changing Climate over the Tibetan Plateau, China: Integrating Hazard, Population Exposure and Vulnerability," Sustainability, MDPI, Open Access Journal, vol. 13(7), pages 1-20, March.
    4. Ngoc Thi Minh Tran & Michael P. Cameron & Jacques Poot, 2017. "Local Institutional Quality and Return Migration: Evidence from Vietnam," Working Papers in Economics 17/10, University of Waikato.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    climate change; internal migration; gravity model; New Zealand;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • J11 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics - - - Demographic Trends, Macroeconomic Effects, and Forecasts
    • Q54 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Environmental Economics - - - Climate; Natural Disasters and their Management; Global Warming
    • R23 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - Household Analysis - - - Regional Migration; Regional Labor Markets; Population

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