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Globalization, robotization and electoral outcomes: Evidence from spatial regressions for Italy

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  • Mauro Caselli
  • Andrea Fracasso
  • Silvio Traverso

Abstract

Criticism of economic globalization and technological progress has gained support in Italy in the last two decades but, due to the di↵erentiated exposure of local communities to this process, political outcomes have varied considerably across the country. By observing the local impact of three global economic phenomena (flows of migrants, foreign competition in international trade, and di↵usion of robots) alongside with the patterns of local electoral outcomes potentially associated with discontent, this work analyses from a spatial perspective the economic forces driving the evolution of general elections in 2001, 2008 and 2013 in Italy. The analysis reveals that all these global factors had an impact on political outcomes associated with discontent, albeit in different ways and changing over time. These novel em- pirical results indicate that these global drivers interacted with elements pertaining to the political supply, such as party federation and scandals. By combining various methodological advances coming from the political geography and the political economy literature, this work attempts to bridge disciplines sharing similar interests but adopting di↵erent tools of analysis.

Suggested Citation

  • Mauro Caselli & Andrea Fracasso & Silvio Traverso, 2019. "Globalization, robotization and electoral outcomes: Evidence from spatial regressions for Italy," DEM Working Papers 2019/5, Department of Economics and Management.
  • Handle: RePEc:trn:utwprg:2019/05
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    Cited by:

    1. Mauro Caselli & Paolo Falco, 2020. "As long as they are cheap. Experimental evidence on the demand for migrant workers," Discussion Papers 20-06, University of Copenhagen. Department of Economics.
    2. Barone, Guglielmo & Kreuter, Helena, 2021. "Low-wage import competition and populist backlash: The case of Italy," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 67(C).
    3. Mauro Caselli & Andrea Fracasso & Sergio Scicchitano, 2020. "From the lockdown to the new normal: An analysis of the limitations to individual mobility in Italy following the Covid-19 crisis," Discussion Paper series in Regional Science & Economic Geography 2020-07, Gran Sasso Science Institute, Social Sciences, revised Oct 2020.
    4. Italo Colantone & Gianmarco Ottaviano & Piero Stanig, 2021. "The Backlash of Globalization," BAFFI CAREFIN Working Papers 21165, BAFFI CAREFIN, Centre for Applied Research on International Markets Banking Finance and Regulation, Universita' Bocconi, Milano, Italy.
    5. Davide Dottori, 2021. "Robots and employment: evidence from Italy," Economia Politica: Journal of Analytical and Institutional Economics, Springer;Fondazione Edison, vol. 38(2), pages 739-795, July.
    6. Mauro Caselli & Andrea Fracasso & Sergio Scicchitano & Silvio Traverso & Enrico Tundis, 2021. "Stop worrying and love the robot: An activity-based approach to assess the impact of robotization on employment dynamics," DEM Working Papers 2021/06, Department of Economics and Management.
    7. Paolo Nicola Barbieri & Beatrice Bonini, 2021. "Political orientation and adherence to social distancing during the COVID-19 pandemic in Italy," Economia Politica: Journal of Analytical and Institutional Economics, Springer;Fondazione Edison, vol. 38(2), pages 483-504, July.
    8. Richard Baldwin & Rebecca Freeman, 2021. "Risks and global supply chains: What we know and what we need to know," NBER Working Papers 29444, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    9. Luigi Bonatti & Andrea Fracasso, 2020. "The Covid-19 Crisis, Italy and Ms Merkel’s Turnaround: Will the EU Ever be the Same Again?," EconPol Policy Reports 25, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich.
    10. Klump, Rainer & Jurkat, Anne & Schneider, Florian, 2021. "Tracking the rise of robots: A survey of the IFR database and its applications," MPRA Paper 110390, University Library of Munich, Germany.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Indirect inference; directional statistics; stable distribution; weighting matrix;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • D72 - Microeconomics - - Analysis of Collective Decision-Making - - - Political Processes: Rent-seeking, Lobbying, Elections, Legislatures, and Voting Behavior
    • F14 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Empirical Studies of Trade
    • F60 - International Economics - - Economic Impacts of Globalization - - - General
    • O33 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Innovation; Research and Development; Technological Change; Intellectual Property Rights - - - Technological Change: Choices and Consequences; Diffusion Processes

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