IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/iza/izadps/dp17864.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Robots Replacing Trade Unions: Novel Data and Evidence from Western Europe

Author

Listed:
  • Agnolin, Paolo

    (Bocconi University)

  • Anelli, Massimo

    (Bocconi University)

  • Colantone, Italo

    (Bocconi University)

  • Stanig, Piero

    (Bocconi University)

Abstract

Labor unions play a crucial role in liberal democracies by influencing labor market and political dynamics, organizing workers’ demands and linking them to parties. However, their importance has progressively diminished in the last decades. We suggest that technological change—and industrial robotization in particular—has contributed to weakening the role of unions. We produce novel granular data on union density at the sub-national and industry level for 15 countries of western Europe over 2002-2018. Employing these data, we estimate the impact of industrial robot adoption on unionization rates. We find that regions more exposed to automation experience a decrease in union density. The decline in unionization occurs via a compositional effect, i.e., a reallocation of employment away from traditionally unionized industries towards less unionized ones. On the other hand, there is no clear evidence of a systematic reduction in union density within industries more exposed to automation.

Suggested Citation

  • Agnolin, Paolo & Anelli, Massimo & Colantone, Italo & Stanig, Piero, 2025. "Robots Replacing Trade Unions: Novel Data and Evidence from Western Europe," IZA Discussion Papers 17864, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    • Handle: RePEc:iza:izadps:dp17864
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://docs.iza.org/dp17864.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Georgios Petropoulos & David Pichler & Francesco Chiacchio, 2018. "The impact of industrial robots on EU employment and wages- A local labour market approach," Bruegel Working Papers 25186, Bruegel.
    2. repec:bla:ecpoli:v:17:y:2002:i:35:p:361-408 is not listed on IDEAS
    3. Henry S Farber & Daniel Herbst & Ilyana Kuziemko & Suresh Naidu, 2021. "Unions and Inequality over the Twentieth Century: New Evidence from Survey Data," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 136(3), pages 1325-1385.
    4. Paul Frymer & Jacob M. Grumbach, 2021. "Labor Unions and White Racial Politics," American Journal of Political Science, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 65(1), pages 225-240, January.
    5. Daniele Checchi & Claudio Lucifora, 2002. "Unions and labour market institutions in Europe [‘Deunionisation, technical change and inequality’]," Economic Policy, CEPR, CESifo, Sciences Po;CES;MSH, vol. 17(35), pages 361-408.
    6. Mummolo, Jonathan & Peterson, Erik, 2018. "Improving the Interpretation of Fixed Effects Regression Results," Political Science Research and Methods, Cambridge University Press, vol. 6(4), pages 829-835, October.
    7. Wolfgang Dauth & Sebastian Findeisen & Jens Suedekum & Nicole Woessner, 2021. "The Adjustment of Labor Markets to Robots [“Skills, Tasks and Technologies: Implications for Employment and Earnings]," Journal of the European Economic Association, European Economic Association, vol. 19(6), pages 3104-3153.
    8. Becher, Michael & Stegmueller, Daniel, 2019. "Cognitive Ability, Union Membership, and Voter Turnout," IAST Working Papers 19-97, Institute for Advanced Study in Toulouse (IAST).
    9. Davide Dottori, 2021. "Robots and employment: evidence from Italy," Economia Politica: Journal of Analytical and Institutional Economics, Springer;Fondazione Edison, vol. 38(2), pages 739-795, July.
    10. Maarten Goos & Alan Manning & Anna Salomons, 2014. "Explaining Job Polarization: Routine-Biased Technological Change and Offshoring," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 104(8), pages 2509-2526, August.
    11. David H. Autor & David Dorn, 2013. "The Growth of Low-Skill Service Jobs and the Polarization of the US Labor Market," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 103(5), pages 1553-1597, August.
    12. Daron Acemoglu & Pascual Restrepo, 2020. "Robots and Jobs: Evidence from US Labor Markets," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 128(6), pages 2188-2244.
    13. repec:oup:ecpoli:v:17:y:2002:i:35:p:361-408 is not listed on IDEAS
    14. David H. Autor & David Dorn & Gordon H. Hanson, 2013. "The China Syndrome: Local Labor Market Effects of Import Competition in the United States," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 103(6), pages 2121-2168, October.
    15. Lipset, Seymour Martin, 1983. "Radicalism or Reformism: The Sources of Working-class Politics," American Political Science Review, Cambridge University Press, vol. 77(1), pages 1-18, March.
    16. Christoph Arndt & Line Rennwald, 2017. "Workplace Characteristics and Working Class Vote for the Old and New Right," British Journal of Industrial Relations, London School of Economics, vol. 55(1), pages 137-164, March.
    17. Claudia Goldin & Lawrence F. Katz, 1998. "The Origins of Technology-Skill Complementarity," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 113(3), pages 693-732.
    18. Italo Colantone & Piero Stanig, 2018. "The Trade Origins of Economic Nationalism: Import Competition and Voting Behavior in Western Europe," American Journal of Political Science, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 62(4), pages 936-953, October.
    19. Gosta Esping-Andersen, 1985. "Power and Distributional Regimes," Politics & Society, , vol. 14(2), pages 223-256, June.
    20. Carbonero, Francesco. & Ernst, Ekkehard & Weber, Enzo., 2018. "Robots worldwide the impact of automation on employment and trade," ILO Working Papers 995008793402676, International Labour Organization.
    21. Massimo Anelli & Italo Colantone & Piero Stanig, 2019. "We Were the Robots: Automation and Voting Behavior in Western Europe," CESifo Working Paper Series 7758, CESifo.
    22. Mauro Caselli & Andrea Fracasso & Silvio Traverso, 2021. "Globalization, robotization, and electoral outcomes: Evidence from spatial regressions for Italy," Journal of Regional Science, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 61(1), pages 86-111, January.
    23. Park, David K. & Gelman, Andrew & Bafumi, Joseph, 2004. "Bayesian Multilevel Estimation with Poststratification: State-Level Estimates from National Polls," Political Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 12(4), pages 375-385.
    24. David H. Autor, 2015. "Why Are There Still So Many Jobs? The History and Future of Workplace Automation," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 29(3), pages 3-30, Summer.
    25. Daniele Checchi & Jelle Visser & Herman G. Van De Werfhorst, 2010. "Inequality and Union Membership: The Influence of Relative Earnings and Inequality Attitudes," British Journal of Industrial Relations, London School of Economics, vol. 48(1), pages 84-108, March.
    26. Henry S. Farber, 2005. "Union Membership in the United States: The Divergence between the Public and Private Sectors," Working Papers 882, Princeton University, Department of Economics, Industrial Relations Section..
    27. John S. Ahlquist & Mitch Downey, 2023. "The Effects of Import Competition on Unionization," American Economic Journal: Economic Policy, American Economic Association, vol. 15(4), pages 359-389, November.
    28. James Feigenbaum & Alexander Hertel-Fernandez & Vanessa Williamson, 2018. "From the Bargaining Table to the Ballot Box: Political Effects of Right to Work Laws," NBER Working Papers 24259, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    29. Carl Benedikt Frey & Thor Berger & Chinchih Chen, 2018. "Political machinery: did robots swing the 2016 US presidential election?," Oxford Review of Economic Policy, Oxford University Press and Oxford Review of Economic Policy Limited, vol. 34(3), pages 418-442.
    30. Lax, Jeffrey R. & Phillips, Justin H., 2009. "Gay Rights in the States: Public Opinion and Policy Responsiveness," American Political Science Review, Cambridge University Press, vol. 103(3), pages 367-386, August.
    31. Lucas Leemann & Fabio Wasserfallen, 2017. "Extending the Use and Prediction Precision of Subnational Public Opinion Estimation," American Journal of Political Science, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 61(4), pages 1003-1022, October.
    32. George J. Borjas & Richard B. Freeman, 2019. "From Immigrants to Robots: The Changing Locus of Substitutes for Workers," NBER Working Papers 25438, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    33. Henry S. Farber, 2005. "Union Membership in the United States: The Divergence between the Public and Private Sectors," Working Papers 882, Princeton University, Department of Economics, Industrial Relations Section..
    34. Sung Eun Kim & Yotam Margalit, 2017. "Informed Preferences? The Impact of Unions on Workers' Policy Views," American Journal of Political Science, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 61(3), pages 728-743, July.
    35. Ernesto Dal Bo & Frederico Finan & Olle Folke & Torsten Persson & Johanna Rickne, 2023. "Economic and Social Outsiders but Political Insiders: Sweden’s Populist Radical Right," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 90(2), pages 675-706.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Caselli, Mauro & Fracasso, Andrea & Scicchitano, Sergio & Traverso, Silvio & Tundis, Enrico, 2025. "What workers and robots do: An activity-based analysis of the impact of robotization on changes in local employment," Research Policy, Elsevier, vol. 54(1).
    2. Colantone, Italo & Ottaviano, Gianmarco & Stanig, Piero, 2021. "The backlash of globalization," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 113860, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
    3. Antón, José-Ignacio & Fernández-Macías, Enrique & Winter-Ebmer, Rudolf, 2020. "Does Robotization Affect Job Quality? Evidence from European Regional Labour Markets," IZA Discussion Papers 13975, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    4. Davide Dottori, 2021. "Robots and employment: evidence from Italy," Economia Politica: Journal of Analytical and Institutional Economics, Springer;Fondazione Edison, vol. 38(2), pages 739-795, July.
    5. Caselli, Mauro & Fracasso, Andrea & Scicchitano, Sergio & Traverso, Silvio & Tundis, Enrico, 2021. "Stop worrying and love the robot: An activity-based approach to assess the impact of robotization on employment dynamics," GLO Discussion Paper Series 802, Global Labor Organization (GLO).
    6. Ghodsi, Mahdi & Stehrer, Robert & Barišić, Antea, 2024. "Assessing the impact of new technologies on wages and labour income shares," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 209(C).
    7. Klump, Rainer & Jurkat, Anne & Schneider, Florian, 2021. "Tracking the rise of robots: A survey of the IFR database and its applications," MPRA Paper 107909, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    8. Chen, Chinchih & Frey, Carl Benedikt & Presidente, Giorgio, 2022. "Automation or globalization? The impacts of robots and Chinese imports on jobs in the United Kingdom," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 204(C), pages 528-542.
    9. Ghodsi, Mahdi & Stehrer, Robert & Barišić, Antea, 2024. "Which migrant jobs are linked with the adoption of novel technologies, robotisation, and digitalisation?," Technology in Society, Elsevier, vol. 78(C).
    10. Jasmine Mondolo, 2022. "The composite link between technological change and employment: A survey of the literature," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 36(4), pages 1027-1068, September.
    11. Stefan Jestl, 2022. "Industrial Robots, and Information and Communication Technology: The Employment Effects in EU Labour Markets," wiiw Working Papers 215, The Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies, wiiw.
    12. David Autor & Caroline Chin & Anna Salomons & Bryan Seegmiller, 2024. "New Frontiers: The Origins and Content of New Work, 1940–2018," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 139(3), pages 1399-1465.
    13. Brey, Björn, 2024. "The effect of recent technological change on US immigration policy," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 227(C).
    14. Fierro, Luca Eduardo & Caiani, Alessandro & Russo, Alberto, 2022. "Automation, Job Polarisation, and Structural Change," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 200(C), pages 499-535.
    15. Gregory, Terry & Salomons, Anna & Zierahn, Ulrich, 2016. "Racing With or Against the Machine? Evidence from Europe," VfS Annual Conference 2016 (Augsburg): Demographic Change 145843, Verein für Socialpolitik / German Economic Association.
    16. Wang, Ting & Zhang, Yi & Liu, Chun, 2024. "Robot adoption and employment adjustment: Firm-level evidence from China," China Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 84(C).
    17. Karim Bekhtiar, 2023. "The decline of manufacturing employment and the rise of the far-right in Austria," Economics working papers 2023-09, Department of Economics, Johannes Kepler University Linz, Austria.
    18. Florencia Jaccoud & Fabien Petit & Tommaso Ciarli & Maria Savona, 2024. "Automation and Employment over the Technology Life Cycle: Evidence from European Regions," CEPEO Working Paper Series 24-02, UCL Centre for Education Policy and Equalising Opportunities, revised Feb 2024.
    19. Massimo Anelli & Italo Colantone & Piero Stanig, 2019. "We Were the Robots: Automation and Voting Behavior in Western Europe," CESifo Working Paper Series 7758, CESifo.
    20. Italo Colantone & Gianmarco I.P. Ottaviano & Piero Stanig, 2021. "The Backlash of Globalization," CESifo Working Paper Series 9289, CESifo.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    robots; automation; labor unions; Europe; regions;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • J5 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Labor-Management Relations, Trade Unions, and Collective Bargaining
    • J2 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demand and Supply of Labor
    • O3 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Innovation; Research and Development; Technological Change; Intellectual Property Rights
    • P0 - Political Economy and Comparative Economic Systems - - General

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:iza:izadps:dp17864. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Holger Hinte (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/izaaade.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.