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Globalization and Electoral Outcomes: Evidence from Italy

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  • Mauro Caselli
  • Andrea Fracasso
  • Silvio Traverso

Abstract

We study whether and to what extent the electoral dynamics in Italy over the 1994-2008 period can be explained by the development of economic factors associated with globalization. To measure the level of exposure to globalization for local labor markets, our main unit of analysis, we use the intensity of import competition from China and the presence of immigrants. Looking at parties’ political positions and employing an estimation strategy that accounts for endogeneity and time-invariant unobserved effects across local labor markets, we find that both immigration intensity and exposure to import competition from China have contributed positively to the electoral outcomes of far-right parties, whereas only the former has produced a positive effect on the votes of right-wing and traditionalist/authoritarian/nationalist parties. On the other hand, neither of them has had an effect on far-left parties. Moreover, electoral turnout has responded negatively to an increased presence of migrants. While the above effects seem to work through the mediation of labor markets, the results suggest that other mechanisms at the level of local communities are also at play.

Suggested Citation

  • Mauro Caselli & Andrea Fracasso & Silvio Traverso, 2018. "Globalization and Electoral Outcomes: Evidence from Italy," EconPol Working Paper 10, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich.
  • Handle: RePEc:ces:econwp:_10
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    Cited by:

    1. Luigi Bonatti & Andrea Fracasso, 2020. "The Covid-19 Crisis, Italy and Ms Merkel’s Turnaround: Will the EU Ever be the Same Again?," EconPol Policy Reports 25, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich.
    2. Mauro Caselli & Paolo Falco, 2020. "As long as they are cheap. Experimental evidence on the demand for migrant workers," Discussion Papers 20-06, University of Copenhagen. Department of Economics.
    3. Mauro Caselli & Andrea Fracasso & Sergio Scicchitano, 2020. "From the lockdown to the new normal: An analysis of the limitations to individual mobility in Italy following the Covid-19 crisis," Discussion Paper series in Regional Science & Economic Geography 2020-07, Gran Sasso Science Institute, Social Sciences, revised Oct 2020.
    4. Davide Dottori, 2021. "Robots and employment: evidence from Italy," Economia Politica: Journal of Analytical and Institutional Economics, Springer;Fondazione Edison, vol. 38(2), pages 739-795, July.
    5. Mauro Caselli & Stefano Schiavo, 2020. "Markups, import competition and exporting," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 43(5), pages 1309-1326, May.
    6. Mauro Caselli & Andrea Fracasso & Sergio Scicchitano & Silvio Traverso & Enrico Tundis, 2021. "Stop worrying and love the robot: An activity-based approach to assess the impact of robotization on employment dynamics," DEM Working Papers 2021/06, Department of Economics and Management.
    7. Bellettini, Giorgio & Berti Ceroni, Carlotta & Monfardini, Chiara, 2020. "Immigration, ethnic diversity and voting: The role of individual income," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 61(C).
    8. D’Ambrosio, Anna & Leombruni, Roberto & Razzolini, Tiziano, 2021. ""Fear Is the Path to the Dark Side". Electoral Results and the Workplace Safety of Immigrants," IZA Discussion Papers 14322, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    9. Paolo Nicola Barbieri & Beatrice Bonini, 2021. "Political orientation and adherence to social distancing during the COVID-19 pandemic in Italy," Economia Politica: Journal of Analytical and Institutional Economics, Springer;Fondazione Edison, vol. 38(2), pages 483-504, July.
    10. Mauro Caselli & Andrea Fracasso & Stefano Schiavo, 2021. "Trade policy and firm performance: introduction to the special section," Economia Politica: Journal of Analytical and Institutional Economics, Springer;Fondazione Edison, vol. 38(1), pages 1-6, April.
    11. Kagitani, Koichi & Harimaya, Kozo, 2020. "Does international trade competition influence candidates and voters? The case of Japanese Lower House elections," Journal of the Japanese and International Economies, Elsevier, vol. 57(C).
    12. Matano, Alessia & Naticchioni, Paolo & Vona, Francesco, 2019. "The Institutional Adjustment Margin to Import Competition: Evidence from Italian Minimum Wages," IZA Discussion Papers 12714, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    13. Mauro Caselli & Andrea Fracasso & Silvio Traverso, 2021. "Globalization, robotization, and electoral outcomes: Evidence from spatial regressions for Italy," Journal of Regional Science, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 61(1), pages 86-111, January.
    14. Leyla D. Karakas & Nam Seok Kim & Devashish Mitra, 2021. "Attitudes Towards Globalization Barriers and Implications for Voting: Evidence from Sweden," CESifo Working Paper Series 9236, CESifo.
    15. Levi, Eugenio & Patriarca, Fabrizio, 2019. "An exploratory study of populism: the municipality-level predictors of electoral outcomes in Italy," GLO Discussion Paper Series 430, Global Labor Organization (GLO).
    16. Guriev, Sergei & Papaioannou, Elias, 2020. "The Political Economy of Populism," CEPR Discussion Papers 14433, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    17. Giuseppe Albanese & Guglielmo Barone & Guido de Blasio, 2019. "Populist Voting and Losers’ Discontent: Does Redistribution Matter?," "Marco Fanno" Working Papers 0239, Dipartimento di Scienze Economiche "Marco Fanno".
    18. Italo Colantone & Gianmarco Ottaviano & Piero Stanig, 2021. "The Backlash of Globalization," BAFFI CAREFIN Working Papers 21165, BAFFI CAREFIN, Centre for Applied Research on International Markets Banking Finance and Regulation, Universita' Bocconi, Milano, Italy.

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    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • D72 - Microeconomics - - Analysis of Collective Decision-Making - - - Political Processes: Rent-seeking, Lobbying, Elections, Legislatures, and Voting Behavior
    • F14 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Empirical Studies of Trade
    • F6 - International Economics - - Economic Impacts of Globalization

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