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Assessing the Trade Impact of the European Neighborhood Policy on EU-MED Free Trade Area


  • Pierluigi Montalbano

    (Department of Economics, University of Sussex and Sapienza University)

  • Silvia Nenci

    (University of Roma Tre)


The goal of this paper is to provide an "ex ante" assessment of the long-run "treatment" effect of ENP on EU-MED Free Trade Area. Supplementary objectives are the presentation of new up-to-date "in-sample" estimates of the actual trade potential in the Pan-european Common Market as well as more robust estimates of the trade enhancing impact of EU deep integration policy. The novel aspect of this work is twofold: i) to present nonparametric matching estimators along with gravity estimates; ii) to assume, as a counterfactual (i.e., the hypothetical situation of ENP full implementation), the ex-post long-run average treatment effect of the Europe Agreements, which are the unique experience to date of "full partnership without membership". Our empirical outcomes show a likely strong and robust impact on EU-MED trade integration of the new "deep integration" efforts made by the EU. This is confirmed by both the applied dummy strategy and the non parametric matching technique. This result seems to be linked to other factors than simply trade preferences alone. Our empirical evidence is relevant both to policymaking, since it provides an "ex ante" assessment of the efficacy of deep integration under the EU-MED regional cooperation framework, and to the methodological point of view, since it contributes to improvements in empirical estimates of the "policy impact" of EU preferential agreements.

Suggested Citation

  • Pierluigi Montalbano & Silvia Nenci, 2012. "Assessing the Trade Impact of the European Neighborhood Policy on EU-MED Free Trade Area," Working Paper Series 3112, Department of Economics, University of Sussex.
  • Handle: RePEc:sus:susewp:3112

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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Ascani, Andrea & Crescenzi, Riccardo & Iammarino, Simona, 2016. "What drives European multinationals to the EU neighbouring countries? A mixed methods analysis of Italian investment strategies," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 64862, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
    2. Emiliano Magrini & Pierluigi Montalbano & Silvia Nenci, 2013. "Are the EU trade preferences really effective? A Generalized Propensity Score evaluation of the Southern Mediterranean Countries' case in agriculture and fishery," Working Papers 2/13, Sapienza University of Rome, DISS.
    3. Mathias Juust & Priit Vahter & Urmas Varblane, 2017. "The Trade Effects Of The Eu-South Korea Free Trade Agreement In The Automotive Industry," University of Tartu - Faculty of Economics and Business Administration Working Paper Series 105, Faculty of Economics and Business Administration, University of Tartu (Estonia).
    4. M. D. Parra & I. Martinez-Zarzoso & C. Suárez-Burguet, 2016. "The impact of FTAs on MENA trade in agricultural and industrial products," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 48(25), pages 2341-2353, May.
    5. Emiliano Magrini & Pierluigi Montalbano & Silvia Nenci, 2013. "Are the EU trade preferences really effective? A Generalized Propensity Score evaluation of the Southern Mediterranean Countries' case in agriculture and fishery," Working Papers 2/13, Sapienza University of Rome, DISS.
    6. Abdessalem Abassi & Lota Dabio Tamini, 2016. "Trade performance and potential of North African countries: An application of a stochastic frontier gravity model," Cahiers de recherche CREATE 2016-4, CREATE.

    More about this item


    Trade policy; European integration; Gravity Model; Matching econometrics; Southern Mediterranean Countries;

    JEL classification:

    • F13 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Trade Policy; International Trade Organizations
    • F15 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Economic Integration
    • F17 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Trade Forecasting and Simulation

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