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Europe Agreements and Trade Balance: Evidence from Four New EU Members

  • Guglielmo Maria Caporale
  • Christophe Rault
  • Robert Sova
  • Anamaria Sova

This paper analyses the trade balance effects of Europe agreements (EA) between the EU-15 and four new EU members from Central and Eastern Europe (CEEC-4) using both static and dynamic panel data approaches. Specifically, the system Generalized Method of Moments (GMM, Blundell and Bond, 1998) and recently developed econometric methods such as the Correlated Common Estimation Pooled - Hausman-Taylor (CCEPHT, Serlenga and Shin, 2007) are applied to analyse the effects of the agreement variable. Our estimation results indicate a positive and significant impact of EA on trade flows. However, there is an asymmetric impact of the agreement variable on the trade balance, exports and imports being affected in different ways, which results in a trade balance deficit in the CEEC-4.

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File URL: http://www.cesifo-group.de/portal/page/portal/DocBase_Content/WP/WP-CESifo_Working_Papers/wp-cesifo-2011/wp-cesifo-2011-02/cesifo1_wp3340.pdf
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Paper provided by CESifo Group Munich in its series CESifo Working Paper Series with number 3340.

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Date of creation: 2011
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Handle: RePEc:ces:ceswps:_3340
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  1. Luis A. Gil-Alana & Natalia Luqui & Juncal Cunado, 2008. "Trade Balance and Exchange Rate: Unit Roots, Co-integration and Long Memory in the US and the UK," Economic Notes, Banca Monte dei Paschi di Siena SpA, vol. 37(1), pages 59-74, 02.
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