IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/jeborg/v133y2017icp342-361.html

Some searches may not work properly. We apologize for the inconvenience.

   My bibliography  Save this article

Do more guns lead to more crime? Understanding the role of illegal firearms

Author

Listed:
  • Khalil, Umair

Abstract

Using a detailed jurisdiction-quarter level dataset, I create a proxy for illegal firearm flows: the number of firearms reported stolen in each police jurisdiction, and map their effect on crime in the U.S. Estimates show a strong, positive impact of increased stolen firearms, in the previous quarters, on firearm aggravated assaults, homicides, and robberies in the current quarter. However, no statistically significant relationship is estimated between firearm flows and non-firearm offenses, providing a crucial falsification test. Various other robustness checks, including an analysis of potential spillovers in illegal firearm flows, find no evidence of a spurious relationship driving the results.

Suggested Citation

  • Khalil, Umair, 2017. "Do more guns lead to more crime? Understanding the role of illegal firearms," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 133(C), pages 342-361.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:jeborg:v:133:y:2017:i:c:p:342-361
    DOI: 10.1016/j.jebo.2016.11.010
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0167268116302669
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.jebo.2016.11.010?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Gary S. Becker, 1974. "Crime and Punishment: An Economic Approach," NBER Chapters, in: Essays in the Economics of Crime and Punishment, pages 1-54, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    2. Richard Blundell & Stephen Bond, 2000. "GMM Estimation with persistent panel data: an application to production functions," Econometric Reviews, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 19(3), pages 321-340.
    3. Viscusi, W Kip & Aldy, Joseph E, 2003. "The Value of a Statistical Life: A Critical Review of Market Estimates throughout the World," Journal of Risk and Uncertainty, Springer, vol. 27(1), pages 5-76, August.
    4. Spengler, Hannes & Büttner, Thiess, 2003. "Local Determinants of Crime: Distinguishing Between Resident and Non-resident Offenders," ZEW Discussion Papers 03-13, ZEW - Leibniz Centre for European Economic Research.
    5. Mialon, Hugo M. & Wiseman, Thomas, 2005. "The impact of gun laws: A model of crime and self-defense," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 88(2), pages 170-175, August.
    6. Cook, Philip J. & Ludwig, Jens, 2006. "The social costs of gun ownership," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 90(1-2), pages 379-391, January.
    7. Brian Knight, 2013. "State Gun Policy and Cross-State Externalities: Evidence from Crime Gun Tracing," American Economic Journal: Economic Policy, American Economic Association, vol. 5(4), pages 200-229, November.
    8. Gregorio Caetano & Vikram Maheshri, 2013. "Do 'Broken Windows' Matter? Identifying Dynamic Spillovers in Criminal Behavior," Working Papers 2013-252-22, Department of Economics, University of Houston.
    9. Orley Ashenfelter & Michael Greenstone, 2004. "Using Mandated Speed Limits to Measure the Value of a Statistical Life," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 112(S1), pages 226-267, February.
    10. Orley Ashenfelter & Michael Greenstone, 2002. "Using Mandated Speed Limits to Measure the Value of a Statistical Life," Working Papers 842, Princeton University, Department of Economics, Industrial Relations Section..
    11. Edward L. Glaeser & Bruce Sacerdote & José A. Scheinkman, 1996. "Crime and Social Interactions," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 111(2), pages 507-548.
    12. Oliveira Cristiano & Balbinotto Neto Giácomo, 2015. "The Deterrence Effects of Gun Laws in Games with Asymmetric Skills and Information," Review of Law & Economics, De Gruyter, vol. 11(3), pages 435-452, November.
    13. Mark Duggan, 2001. "More Guns, More Crime," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 109(5), pages 1086-1114, October.
    14. Bac, Mehmet, 2010. "The interaction between potential criminals' and victims' demands for guns," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 94(5-6), pages 337-343, June.
    15. repec:reg:rpubli:282 is not listed on IDEAS
    16. repec:fth:prinin:463 is not listed on IDEAS
    17. Lott, John R, Jr & Mustard, David B, 1997. "Crime, Deterrence, and Right-to-Carry Concealed Handguns," The Journal of Legal Studies, University of Chicago Press, vol. 26(1), pages 1-68, January.
    18. Manuel Arellano & Stephen Bond, 1991. "Some Tests of Specification for Panel Data: Monte Carlo Evidence and an Application to Employment Equations," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 58(2), pages 277-297.
    19. Ehrlich, Isaac, 1973. "Participation in Illegitimate Activities: A Theoretical and Empirical Investigation," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 81(3), pages 521-565, May-June.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Barros, Fernando & Delalibera, Bruno R. & Neto, Valdemar Pinho & Rodrigues, Victor, 2022. "Bonus for firearms seizures and police performance," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 217(C).
    2. Kahane, Leo H., 2020. "State gun laws and the movement of crime guns between states," International Review of Law and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 61(C).
    3. John J. Donohue, 2022. "The Effect of Permissive Gun Laws on Crime," The ANNALS of the American Academy of Political and Social Science, , vol. 704(1), pages 92-117, November.
    4. Evans, William N. & Garthwaite, Craig & Moore, Timothy J., 2022. "Guns and violence: The enduring impact of crack cocaine markets on young black males," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 206(C).
    5. Jessica Jumee Kim & Kenneth C. Wilbur, 2022. "Proxies for legal firearm prevalence," Quantitative Marketing and Economics (QME), Springer, vol. 20(3), pages 239-273, September.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Seiffert, Sebastian Daniel & Kukharskyy, Bohdan, 2016. "Gun Violence in the US: Correlates and Causes," VfS Annual Conference 2016 (Augsburg): Demographic Change 145946, Verein für Socialpolitik / German Economic Association.
    2. David Fortunato, 2015. "Can Easing Concealed Carry Deter Crime?," Social Science Quarterly, Southwestern Social Science Association, vol. 96(4), pages 1071-1085, December.
    3. Saccal, Alessandro, 2022. "A Nash equilibrium against gun control," MPRA Paper 115213, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    4. Philip J. Cook & Jens Ludwig & Adam Samaha, 2010. "Gun Control after "Heller": Litigating against Regulation," NBER Chapters, in: Regulation vs. Litigation: Perspectives from Economics and Law, pages 103-135, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    5. Fajnzylber, Pablo & Lederman, Daniel & Loayza, Norman, 2002. "What causes violent crime?," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 46(7), pages 1323-1357, July.
    6. Petros G. Sekeris & Tanguy van Ypersele, 2020. "An Economic Analysis of Violent Crime," Revue d'économie politique, Dalloz, vol. 130(6), pages 975-999.
    7. Philip J. Cook & Jens Ludwig, 2006. "Aiming for evidence-based gun policy," Journal of Policy Analysis and Management, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 25(3), pages 691-735.
    8. Paolo Buonanno, 2006. "Crime and Labour Market Opportunities in Italy (1993–2002)," LABOUR, CEIS, vol. 20(4), pages 601-624, December.
    9. Steven N. Durlauf & Daniel S. Nagin, 2010. "The Deterrent Effect of Imprisonment," NBER Chapters, in: Controlling Crime: Strategies and Tradeoffs, pages 43-94, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    10. Guha, Brishti, 2013. "Guns and crime revisited," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 94(C), pages 1-10.
    11. Isaac Ehrlich, 2010. "The Market Model of Crime: A Short Review and New Directions," Chapters, in: Bruce L. Benson & Paul R. Zimmerman (ed.), Handbook on the Economics of Crime, chapter 1, Edward Elgar Publishing.
    12. Wei Shi & Lung-fei Lee, 2018. "The effects of gun control on crimes: a spatial interactive fixed effects approach," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 55(1), pages 233-263, August.
    13. Neanidis, Kyriakos C. & Papadopoulou, Vea, 2013. "Crime, fertility, and economic growth: Theory and evidence," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 91(C), pages 101-121.
    14. David B. Mustard, 2010. "Labor Markets and Crime: New Evidence on an Old Puzzle," Chapters, in: Bruce L. Benson & Paul R. Zimmerman (ed.), Handbook on the Economics of Crime, chapter 14, Edward Elgar Publishing.
    15. Buonanno, Paolo & Montolio, Daniel, 2008. "Identifying the socio-economic and demographic determinants of crime across Spanish provinces," International Review of Law and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 28(2), pages 89-97, June.
    16. repec:pri:cepsud:189lee is not listed on IDEAS
    17. Matthew Lang, 2016. "State Firearm Sales and Criminal Activity: Evidence from Firearm Background Checks," Southern Economic Journal, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 83(1), pages 45-68, July.
    18. Guido Travaglini, 2003. "Property Crime and Law Enforcement in Italy. A Regional Panel Analysis 1980-95," Giornale degli Economisti, GDE (Giornale degli Economisti e Annali di Economia), Bocconi University, vol. 62(2), pages 211-240, October.
    19. Rafael Di Tella & Sebastian Galiani & Ernesto Schargrodsky, 2006. "Crime Distribution & Victim Behavior During a Crime Wave," William Davidson Institute Working Papers Series wp849, William Davidson Institute at the University of Michigan.
    20. Daniel Montolio & Simón Planells, 2013. "Does tourism boost criminal activity? Evidence from a top touristic country," Working Papers 2013/4, Institut d'Economia de Barcelona (IEB).
    21. Ehrlich, Isaac & Saito, Tetsuya, 2010. "Taxing guns vs. taxing crime: An application of the "market for offenses model"," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 32(5), pages 670-689, September.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Illegal firearms; Crime; Assaults; Homicides;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • K42 - Law and Economics - - Legal Procedure, the Legal System, and Illegal Behavior - - - Illegal Behavior and the Enforcement of Law
    • C23 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Models with Panel Data; Spatio-temporal Models
    • K14 - Law and Economics - - Basic Areas of Law - - - Criminal Law

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:jeborg:v:133:y:2017:i:c:p:342-361. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/jebo .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.