From Social Contract to Arab Spring: Macroeconomic Adjustment under Regime Change
Following the Arab-Spring protests, we examine macroeconomic interactions between a productive firm and a rent-seeking government characterized by a continuous probability of regime shift. The model is able to rationalize the early growth leaps witnessed in many Arab economies (the â€œSocial Contractâ€ ), as well as their subsequent stagnation. Although post-Spring outcomes are judged benevolent, the macroeconomic inheritance is dependent on the earlier transition characteristics. The model thus sheds light on Arab economic evolutions, the shifting preferences and technologies of authorities and the likely success of economic reforms.
|Date of creation:||Nov 2013|
|Contact details of provider:|| Postal: Guildford, Surrey GU2 5XH|
Phone: (01483) 259380
Fax: (01483) 259548
Web page: http://www.surrey.ac.uk/economics/
More information through EDIRC
References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Jorge Saba Arbache & Andy Dickerson & Francis Green, 2004. "Trade Liberalisation and Wages in Developing Countries," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 114(493), pages 73-96, 02.
- Kiefer, Nicholas M, 1988. "Economic Duration Data and Hazard Functions," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 26(2), pages 646-679, June.
- Polasky, Stephen & de Zeeuw, Aart & Wagener, Florian, 2011.
"Optimal management with potential regime shifts,"
Journal of Environmental Economics and Management,
Elsevier, vol. 62(2), pages 229-240, September.
- De Zeeuw, A. & Polasky, S. & Wagener, F.O.O., 2010. "Optimal Management with Potential Regime Shifts," CeNDEF Working Papers 10-10, Universiteit van Amsterdam, Center for Nonlinear Dynamics in Economics and Finance.
- Stephen Polasky & Aart de Zeeuw & Florian Wagener, 2010. "Optimal Management with Potential Regime Shifts," CESifo Working Paper Series 3237, CESifo Group Munich.
- Stephen Polasky & Aart de Zeeuw & Florian Wagener, 2010. "Optimal Management with Potential Regime Shifts," Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers 10-111/1, Tinbergen Institute.
- Miguel A. León-Ledesma & Peter McAdam & Alpo Willman, 2010.
"Identifying the Elasticity of Substitution with Biased Technical Change,"
American Economic Review,
American Economic Association, vol. 100(4), pages 1330-1357, September.
- León-Ledesma, Miguel A. & McAdam, Peter & Willman, Alpo, 2009. "Identifying the elasticity of substitution with biased technical change," Working Paper Series 1001, European Central Bank.
- Barry Bosworth & Susan M. Collins, 2007.
"Accounting for Growth: Comparing China and India,"
NBER Working Papers
12943, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Filipe R. Campante & Davin Chor, 2012. "Why Was the Arab World Poised for Revolution? Schooling, Economic Opportunities, and the Arab Spring," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 26(2), pages 167-188, Spring.
- Jose R. Lopez-Calix & Peter Walkenhorst & Ndiame Diop, 2010. "Trade Competitiveness of the Middle East and North Africa : Policies for Export Diversification," World Bank Publications, The World Bank, number 2466.
- Amin, Magdi & Assaad, Ragui & al-Baharna, Nazar & Dervis, Kemal & Desai, Raj M. & Dhillon, Navtej S. & Galal, Ahmed & Ghanem, Hafez & Graham, Carol & Kaufmann, Daniel, 2012. "After the Spring: Economic Transitions in the Arab World," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, number 9780199924929.
- Barro, Robert J. & Gordon, David B., 1983.
"Rules, discretion and reputation in a model of monetary policy,"
Journal of Monetary Economics,
Elsevier, vol. 12(1), pages 101-121.
- Robert J. Barro & David B. Gordon, 1983. "Rules, Discretion and Reputation in a Model of Monetary Policy," NBER Working Papers 1079, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- repec:dau:papers:123456789/269 is not listed on IDEAS
- Timothy Besley & Ethan Ilzetzki & Torsten Persson, 2013. "Weak States and Steady States: The Dynamics of Fiscal Capacity," American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 5(4), pages 205-235, October.
- Eswar S Prasad & Raghuram Rajan, 2006.
"Modernizing China's Growth Paradigm,"
IMF Policy Discussion Papers
06/03, International Monetary Fund.
- Acemoglu, Daron & Robinson, James A, 2006.
"Persistence of Power, Elites and Institutions,"
CEPR Discussion Papers
5603, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- Tarik M. Yousef, 2004. "Development, Growth and Policy Reform in the Middle East and North Africa since 1950," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 18(3), pages 91-115, Summer.
- Growiec, Katarzyna & Growiec, Jakub, 2014.
"Social Capital, Trust, And Multiple Equilibria In Economic Performance,"
Cambridge University Press, vol. 18(02), pages 282-315, March.
- Growiec, Katarzyna & Growiec, Jakub, 2009. "Social Capital, Trust, and Multiple Equilibria in Economic Performance," MPRA Paper 19518, University Library of Munich, Germany.
- Jakub Growiec & Katarzyna Growiec, 2009. "Social Capital, Trust, and Multiple Equilibria in Economic Performance," IBS Working Papers 2/2009, Instytut Badan Strukturalnych.
- Miguel A. LeÛn-Ledesma & A. P. Thirlwall, 2002.
"The endogeneity of the natural rate of growth,"
Cambridge Journal of Economics,
Oxford University Press, vol. 26(4), pages 441-459, July.
- Mario Gilli, 2012. "A Simple Model Of Repression And Revolt In Autocracies Applied To The Arab Spring," International Game Theory Review (IGTR), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 14(04), pages 1-29.
- Sanjay Jain & Sharun W. Mukand, 2003. "Redistributive Promises and the Adoption of Economic Reform," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 93(1), pages 256-264, March.
- Torsten Persson & Guido Tabellini, 2002. "Political Economics: Explaining Economic Policy," MIT Press Books, The MIT Press, edition 1, volume 1, number 0262661314, September.
- Jorge Saba Arbache & John Page, 2010. "How Fragile Is Africa's Recent Growth?," Journal of African Economies, Centre for the Study of African Economies (CSAE), vol. 19(1), pages 1-24, January.
- Loren Brandt & Dwayne Benjamin, 1999. "Markets and Inequality in Rural China: Parallels with the Past," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 89(2), pages 292-295, May.
- Aktas, Zelal & Kaya, Neslihan & Özlale, Ümit, 2010. "Coordination between monetary policy and fiscal policy for an inflation targeting emerging market," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 29(1), pages 123-138, February.
- James A. Robinson & Daron Acemoglu, 2000. "Political Losers as a Barrier to Economic Development," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 90(2), pages 126-130, May.
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:sur:surrec:0813. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Ioannis Lazopoulos)
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.