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From Social Contract to Arab Spring: Macroeconomic Adjustment under Regime Change

  • Joao Ricardo Faria

    (University of Texas at El Paso)

  • Peter McAdam

    (University of Surrey)

Following the Arab-Spring protests, we examine macroeconomic interactions between a productive firm and a rent-seeking government characterized by a continuous probability of regime shift. The model is able to rationalize the early growth leaps witnessed in many Arab economies (the “Social Contractâ€), as well as their subsequent stagnation. Although post-Spring outcomes are judged benevolent, the macroeconomic inheritance is dependent on the earlier transition characteristics. The model thus sheds light on Arab economic evolutions, the shifting preferences and technologies of authorities and the likely success of economic reforms.

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File URL: http://www.fahs.surrey.ac.uk/economics/discussion_papers/2013/DP08-13.pdf
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Paper provided by School of Economics, University of Surrey in its series School of Economics Discussion Papers with number 0813.

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Length: 39 pages
Date of creation: Nov 2013
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:sur:surrec:0813
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