IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/sur/surrec/0813.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

From Social Contract to Arab Spring: Macroeconomic Adjustment under Regime Change

Author

Listed:
  • Joao Ricardo Faria

    (University of Texas at El Paso)

  • Peter McAdam

    (University of Surrey)

Abstract

Following the Arab-Spring protests, we examine macroeconomic interactions between a productive firm and a rent-seeking government characterized by a continuous probability of regime shift. The model is able to rationalize the early growth leaps witnessed in many Arab economies (the “Social Contract”), as well as their subsequent stagnation. Although post-Spring outcomes are judged benevolent, the macroeconomic inheritance is dependent on the earlier transition characteristics. The model thus sheds light on Arab economic evolutions, the shifting preferences and technologies of authorities and the likely success of economic reforms.

Suggested Citation

  • Joao Ricardo Faria & Peter McAdam, 2013. "From Social Contract to Arab Spring: Macroeconomic Adjustment under Regime Change," School of Economics Discussion Papers 0813, School of Economics, University of Surrey.
    • Handle: RePEc:sur:surrec:0813
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://repec.som.surrey.ac.uk/2013/DP08-13.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Jorge Saba Arbache & Andy Dickerson & Francis Green, 2004. "Trade Liberalisation and Wages in Developing Countries," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 114(493), pages 73-96, February.
    2. Malik, Adeel & Awadallah, Bassem, 2013. "The Economics of the Arab Spring," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 45(C), pages 296-313.
    3. Barro, Robert J. & Gordon, David B., 1983. "Rules, discretion and reputation in a model of monetary policy," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 12(1), pages 101-121.
    4. Polasky, Stephen & de Zeeuw, Aart & Wagener, Florian, 2011. "Optimal management with potential regime shifts," Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, Elsevier, vol. 62(2), pages 229-240, September.
    5. Kiefer, Nicholas M, 1988. "Economic Duration Data and Hazard Functions," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 26(2), pages 646-679, June.
    6. Miguel A. León-Ledesma & Peter McAdam & Alpo Willman, 2010. "Identifying the Elasticity of Substitution with Biased Technical Change," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 100(4), pages 1330-1357, September.
    7. Miguel A. LeÛn-Ledesma & A. P. Thirlwall, 2002. "The endogeneity of the natural rate of growth," Cambridge Journal of Economics, Cambridge Political Economy Society, vol. 26(4), pages 441-459, July.
    8. Daron Acemoglu & James A. Robinson, 2008. "Persistence of Power, Elites, and Institutions," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 98(1), pages 267-293, March.
    9. Torsten Persson & Guido Tabellini, 2002. "Political Economics: Explaining Economic Policy," MIT Press Books, The MIT Press, edition 1, volume 1, number 0262661314, December.
    10. Loren Brandt & Dwayne Benjamin, 1999. "Markets and Inequality in Rural China: Parallels with the Past," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 89(2), pages 292-295, May.
    11. Growiec, Katarzyna & Growiec, Jakub, 2014. "Social Capital, Trust, And Multiple Equilibria In Economic Performance," Macroeconomic Dynamics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 18(2), pages 282-315, March.
    12. Acemoglu,Daron & Robinson,James A., 2009. "Economic Origins of Dictatorship and Democracy," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9780521671422.
    13. Filipe R. Campante & Davin Chor, 2012. "Why Was the Arab World Poised for Revolution? Schooling, Economic Opportunities, and the Arab Spring," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 26(2), pages 167-188, Spring.
    14. Eswar S. Prasad & Raghuram G. Rajan, 2006. "Modernizing China's Growth Paradigm," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 96(2), pages 331-336, May.
    15. Eswar S. Prasad & Raghuram G. Rajan, 2006. "Modernizing China's Growth Paradigm," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 96(2), pages 331-336, May.
    16. Amin, Magdi & Assaad, Ragui & al-Baharna, Nazar & Dervis, Kemal & Desai, Raj M. & Dhillon, Navtej S. & Galal, Ahmed & Ghanem, Hafez & Graham, Carol & Kaufmann, Daniel, 2012. "After the Spring: Economic Transitions in the Arab World," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, number 9780199924929.
    17. Timothy Besley & Ethan Ilzetzki & Torsten Persson, 2013. "Weak States and Steady States: The Dynamics of Fiscal Capacity," American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 5(4), pages 205-235, October.
    18. Sanjay Jain & Sharun W. Mukand, 2003. "Redistributive Promises and the Adoption of Economic Reform," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 93(1), pages 256-264, March.
    19. Lipset, Seymour Martin, 1959. "Some Social Requisites of Democracy: Economic Development and Political Legitimacy1," American Political Science Review, Cambridge University Press, vol. 53(1), pages 69-105, March.
    20. repec:dau:papers:123456789/269 is not listed on IDEAS
    21. Cambell Leith & Simon Wren-Lewis, 2008. "Electoral Uncertainty and the Deficit Bias in a New Keynesian Economy," CDMA Conference Paper Series 0803, Centre for Dynamic Macroeconomic Analysis.
    22. Mario Gilli, 2012. "A Simple Model Of Repression And Revolt In Autocracies Applied To The Arab Spring," International Game Theory Review (IGTR), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 14(04), pages 1-29.
    23. James A. Robinson & Daron Acemoglu, 2000. "Political Losers as a Barrier to Economic Development," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 90(2), pages 126-130, May.
    24. Aktas, Zelal & Kaya, Neslihan & Özlale, Ümit, 2010. "Coordination between monetary policy and fiscal policy for an inflation targeting emerging market," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 29(1), pages 123-138, February.
    25. Jorge Saba Arbache & John Page, 2010. "How Fragile Is Africa's Recent Growth?," Journal of African Economies, Centre for the Study of African Economies, vol. 19(1), pages 1-24, January.
    26. Barry Bosworth & Susan M. Collins, 2008. "Accounting for Growth: Comparing China and India," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 22(1), pages 45-66, Winter.
    27. Jose R. Lopez-Calix & Peter Walkenhorst & Ndiame Diop, 2010. "Trade Competitiveness of the Middle East and North Africa : Policies for Export Diversification," World Bank Publications - Books, The World Bank Group, number 2466, December.
    28. Tarik M. Yousef, 2004. "Development, Growth and Policy Reform in the Middle East and North Africa since 1950," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 18(3), pages 91-115, Summer.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Faria, João Ricardo & McAdam, Peter, 2015. "Macroeconomic adjustment under regime change: From social contract to Arab Spring," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 56(C), pages 1-22.
    2. Rougier, Eric, 2016. "“Fire in Cairo”: Authoritarian–Redistributive Social Contracts, Structural Change, and the Arab Spring," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 78(C), pages 148-171.
    3. Roland Hodler, 2018. "The Political Economics Of The Arab Spring," Economic Inquiry, Western Economic Association International, vol. 56(2), pages 821-836, April.
    4. Christopoulos, Dimitris K. & McAdam, Peter, 2019. "Efficiency, Inefficiency, And The Mena Frontier," Macroeconomic Dynamics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 23(2), pages 489-521, March.
    5. Daron Acemoglu & Tarek A. Hassan & Ahmed Tahoun, 2018. "The Power of the Street: Evidence from Egypt’s Arab Spring," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 31(1), pages 1-42.
    6. Richard Bluhm & Adam Szirmai, 2011. "Institutions, Inequality and Growth: A review of theory and evidence on the institutional determinants of growth and inequality," Papers inwopa634, Innocenti Working Papers.
    7. Stephen L. Parente & Luis Felipe Sáenz & Anna Seim, 2022. "Income, education and democracy," Journal of Economic Growth, Springer, vol. 27(2), pages 193-233, June.
    8. Jain, Sanjay & Majumdar, Sumon, 2016. "State capacity, redistributive compensation and the political economy of economic policy reform," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 42(C), pages 462-473.
    9. Tim Willems & Shaun Larcom & Mare Sarr, 2013. "What shall we do with the bad dictator?," Economics Series Working Papers 671, University of Oxford, Department of Economics.
    10. Ethan Ilzetzki, 2015. "A Positive Theory of Tax Reform," Discussion Papers 1526, Centre for Macroeconomics (CFM).
    11. Kodila-Tedika , Oasis, 2014. "Forget your gods: African evidence on the relation between state capacity and cognitive ability of leading politicians," European Economic Letters, European Economics Letters Group, vol. 3(1), pages 7-11.
    12. Bautista, M. A. & González, F. & Martínez, L. R. & Muñoz, P. & Prem, M., 2020. "Chile’s Missing Students: Dictatorship, Higher Education and Social Mobility," Documentos de Trabajo 18163, Universidad del Rosario.
    13. Jung, Florian & Sunde, Uwe, 2014. "Income, inequality, and the stability of democracy — Another look at the Lipset hypothesis," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 35(C), pages 52-74.
    14. Bougharriou, Nouha & Benayed, Walid & Gabsi, Foued Badr, 2019. "The democracy and economic growth nexus: Do FDI and government spending matter? Evidence from the Arab world," Economics - The Open-Access, Open-Assessment E-Journal (2007-2020), Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel), vol. 13, pages 1-29.
    15. Akerman, Anders & Larsson, Anna & Naghavi, Alireza, 2011. "Autocracies and Development in a Global Economy: A Tale of Two Elites," Economy and Society 115848, Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei (FEEM).
    16. Ghosal, Sayantan & Proto, Eugenio, 2009. "Democracy, collective action and intra-elite conflict," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 93(9-10), pages 1078-1089, October.
    17. Sunde, Uwe & Jung, Florian, 2011. "Inequality, Development, and the Stability of Democracy -Lipset and Three Critical Junctures in German History," CEPR Discussion Papers 8406, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    18. Alessandro Belmonte, 2021. "Sophisticated electoral accountability," Annals of Public and Cooperative Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 92(2), pages 233-260, June.
    19. Ilzetzki, Ethan, 2018. "Tax reform and the political economy of the tax base," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 164(C), pages 197-210.
    20. Bluhm, Richard & Szirmai, Adam, 2012. "Institutions and long-run growth performance: An analytic literature review of the institutional determinants of economic growth," MERIT Working Papers 2012-033, United Nations University - Maastricht Economic and Social Research Institute on Innovation and Technology (MERIT).

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • E24 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Employment; Unemployment; Wages; Intergenerational Income Distribution; Aggregate Human Capital; Aggregate Labor Productivity
    • F5 - International Economics - - International Relations, National Security, and International Political Economy
    • N17 - Economic History - - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics; Industrial Structure; Growth; Fluctuations - - - Africa; Oceania

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:sur:surrec:0813. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Ioannis Lazopoulos (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/desuruk.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.