From Social Contract to Arab Spring: Macroeconomic Adjustment under Regime Change
Following the Arab-Spring protests, we examine macroeconomic interactions between a productive firm and a rent-seeking government characterized by a continuous probability of regime shift. The model is able to rationalize the early growth leaps witnessed in many Arab economies (the â€œSocial Contractâ€ ), as well as their subsequent stagnation. Although post-Spring outcomes are judged benevolent, the macroeconomic inheritance is dependent on the earlier transition characteristics. The model thus sheds light on Arab economic evolutions, the shifting preferences and technologies of authorities and the likely success of economic reforms.
|Date of creation:||Nov 2013|
|Contact details of provider:|| Postal: Guildford, Surrey GU2 5XH|
Phone: (01483) 259380
Fax: (01483) 259548
Web page: http://www.surrey.ac.uk/economics/
More information through EDIRC
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Jorge Saba Arbache & Andy Dickerson & Francis Green, 2004. "Trade Liberalisation and Wages in Developing Countries," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 114(493), pages 73-96, 02.
- Timothy Besley & Ethan Ilzetzki & Torsten Persson, 2013. "Weak States and Steady States: The Dynamics of Fiscal Capacity," American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 5(4), pages 205-235, October.
- Barro, Robert J. & Gordon, David B., 1983.
"Rules, discretion and reputation in a model of monetary policy,"
Journal of Monetary Economics,
Elsevier, vol. 12(1), pages 101-121.
- Robert J. Barro & David B. Gordon, 1983. "Rules, Discretion and Reputation in a Model of Monetary Policy," NBER Working Papers 1079, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Polasky, Stephen & de Zeeuw, Aart & Wagener, Florian, 2011. "Optimal management with potential regime shifts," Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, Elsevier, vol. 62(2), pages 229-240, September.
- De Zeeuw, A. & Polasky, S. & Wagener, F.O.O., 2010. "Optimal Management with Potential Regime Shifts," CeNDEF Working Papers 10-10, Universiteit van Amsterdam, Center for Nonlinear Dynamics in Economics and Finance.
- Stephen Polasky & Aart de Zeeuw & Florian Wagener, 2010. "Optimal Management with Potential Regime Shifts," Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers 10-111/1, Tinbergen Institute.
- Stephen Polasky & Aart de Zeeuw & Florian Wagener, 2010. "Optimal Management with Potential Regime Shifts," CESifo Working Paper Series 3237, CESifo Group Munich.
- Sanjay Jain & Sharun W. Mukand, 2003. "Redistributive Promises and the Adoption of Economic Reform," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 93(1), pages 256-264, March.
- Kiefer, Nicholas M, 1988. "Economic Duration Data and Hazard Functions," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 26(2), pages 646-679, June.
- Miguel A. León-Ledesma & Peter McAdam & Alpo Willman, 2010. "Identifying the Elasticity of Substitution with Biased Technical Change," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 100(4), pages 1330-1357, September.
- McAdam, Peter & Willman, Alpo & León-Ledesma, Miguel A., 2009. "Identifying the elasticity of substitution with biased technical change," Working Paper Series 1001, European Central Bank.
- Growiec, Katarzyna & Growiec, Jakub, 2014. "Social Capital, Trust, And Multiple Equilibria In Economic Performance," Macroeconomic Dynamics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 18(02), pages 282-315, March.
- Growiec, Katarzyna & Growiec, Jakub, 2009. "Social Capital, Trust, and Multiple Equilibria in Economic Performance," MPRA Paper 19518, University Library of Munich, Germany.
- Jakub Growiec & Katarzyna Growiec, 2009. "Social Capital, Trust, and Multiple Equilibria in Economic Performance," IBS Working Papers 2/2009, Instytut Badan Strukturalnych.
- repec:dau:papers:123456789/269 is not listed on IDEAS
- Miguel A. LeÛn-Ledesma & A. P. Thirlwall, 2002. "The endogeneity of the natural rate of growth," Cambridge Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 26(4), pages 441-459, July.
- Miguel A. León-Ledesma & A. P. Thirlwall, 1998. "The Endogeneity of the Natural Rate of Growth," Studies in Economics 9821, School of Economics, University of Kent.
- Daron Acemoglu & James A. Robinson, 2008. "Persistence of Power, Elites, and Institutions," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 98(1), pages 267-293, March.
- Daron Acemoglu & James A. Robinson, 2006. "Persistence of Power, Elites and Institutions," NBER Working Papers 12108, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Acemoglu, Daron & Robinson, James A, 2006. "Persistence of Power, Elites and Institutions," CEPR Discussion Papers 5603, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- James A. Robinson & Daron Acemoglu, 2000. "Political Losers as a Barrier to Economic Development," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 90(2), pages 126-130, May.
- Eswar S. Prasad & Raghuram G. Rajan, 2006. "Modernizing China's Growth Paradigm," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 96(2), pages 331-336, May.
- Eswar S Prasad & Raghuram Rajan, 2006. "Modernizing China's Growth Paradigm," IMF Policy Discussion Papers 06/03, International Monetary Fund.
- Prasad, Eswar & Rajan, Raghuram G., 2006. "Modernizing China's Growth Paradigm," IZA Discussion Papers 2248, Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA).
- Torsten Persson & Guido Tabellini, 2002. "Political Economics: Explaining Economic Policy," MIT Press Books, The MIT Press, edition 1, volume 1, number 0262661314.
- Loren Brandt & Dwayne Benjamin, 1999. "Markets and Inequality in Rural China: Parallels with the Past," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 89(2), pages 292-295, May.
- Aktas, Zelal & Kaya, Neslihan & Özlale, Ümit, 2010. "Coordination between monetary policy and fiscal policy for an inflation targeting emerging market," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 29(1), pages 123-138, February.
- Mario Gilli, 2012. "A Simple Model Of Repression And Revolt In Autocracies Applied To The Arab Spring," International Game Theory Review (IGTR), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 14(04), pages 1-29.
- Filipe R. Campante & Davin Chor, 2012. "Why Was the Arab World Poised for Revolution? Schooling, Economic Opportunities, and the Arab Spring," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 26(2), pages 167-188, Spring.
- Jorge Saba Arbache & John Page, 2010. "How Fragile Is Africa's Recent Growth?," Journal of African Economies, Centre for the Study of African Economies (CSAE), vol. 19(1), pages 1-24, January.
- Barry Bosworth & Susan M. Collins, 2008. "Accounting for Growth: Comparing China and India," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 22(1), pages 45-66, Winter.
- Barry Bosworth & Susan M. Collins, 2007. "Accounting for Growth: Comparing China and India," NBER Working Papers 12943, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Jose R. Lopez-Calix & Peter Walkenhorst & Ndiame Diop, 2010. "Trade Competitiveness of the Middle East and North Africa : Policies for Export Diversification," World Bank Publications, The World Bank, number 2466, June.
- Tarik M. Yousef, 2004. "Development, Growth and Policy Reform in the Middle East and North Africa since 1950," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 18(3), pages 91-115, Summer.
- Amin, Magdi & Assaad, Ragui & al-Baharna, Nazar & Dervis, Kemal & Desai, Raj M. & Dhillon, Navtej S. & Galal, Ahmed & Ghanem, Hafez & Graham, Carol & Kaufmann, Daniel, 2012. "After the Spring: Economic Transitions in the Arab World," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, number 9780199924929, April. Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:sur:surrec:0813. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Ioannis Lazopoulos)
If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.
If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.
If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.
Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.