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How Fragile Is Africa's Recent Growth?

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  • Jorge Saba Arbache
  • John Page

Abstract

Has Africa finally reached the path to sustained growth? We find that much of the improvement in economic performance in Africa after 1995 is attributable to a substantial reduction in the frequency and severity of growth declines in all economies and an increase in growth accelerations in mineral-rich economies. We find, however, that growth accelerations have not been generally accompanied by improvements in variables often correlated with long run growth, such as investment. We also fail to find evidence that substantial policy and governance improvements were associated with the post-1995 accelerations. We conclude that Africa's growth recovery remains fragile. Copyright 2010 The author 2009. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the Centre for the Study of African Economies. All rights reserved. For permissions, please email: journals.permissions@oxfordjournals.org, Oxford University Press.

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  • Jorge Saba Arbache & John Page, 2010. "How Fragile Is Africa's Recent Growth?," Journal of African Economies, Centre for the Study of African Economies, vol. 19(1), pages 1-24, January.
    • Handle: RePEc:oup:jafrec:v:19:y:2010:i:1:p:1-24
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    File URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1093/jae/ejp017
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    2. Valensisi, Giovanni & Gauci, Adrian, 2013. "Graduated without passing? The employment dimension and LDCs' prospects under the Istanbul Programme of Action," MPRA Paper 86966, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    3. Andam, Kwaw S. & Arndt, Channing & Hartley, Faaiqa, 2017. "Eggs before chickens? Assessing Africa’s livestock revolution with an example from Ghana:," IFPRI discussion papers 1687, International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI).
    4. Declan French, 2016. "Did the Millennium Development Goals Change Trends in Child Mortality?," Health Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 25(10), pages 1312-1325, October.
    5. Carlos Bianchi & Fernando Isabella & Santiago Picasso, 2023. "Growth slowdowns at middle income levels: Identifying mechanisms of external constraints," Metroeconomica, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 74(2), pages 288-305, May.
    6. Dimitris Christopoulos & Miguel León-Ledesma, 2009. "Efficiency and frontier technology in the aftermath of recessions: international evidence," Studies in Economics 0922, School of Economics, University of Kent.
    7. World Bank Group, 2016. "Commodity Markets Outlook, April 2016," World Bank Publications, The World Bank, number 24171.
    8. Edward Tafah Edokat & Elie Ngongang & Steve Rodrigue Akoumba Zeh, 2023. "Effects of armed conflict on economic growth in sub- Saharan Africa," Eximia Journal, Plus Communication Consulting SRL, vol. 6(1), pages 28-56, January.
    9. Martin Paldam, 2011. "The Cycle of Development in Africa: A Story about the Power of Economic Ideas," Swiss Journal of Economics and Statistics (SJES), Swiss Society of Economics and Statistics (SSES), vol. 147(IV), pages 427-459, December.
    10. David Canning & Sangeeta Raja & Abdo S. Yazbeck, 2015. "Africa's Demographic Transition [La transition démographique de l’Afrique]," World Bank Publications - Books, The World Bank Group, number 22036, December.
    11. Thomas Barnebeck Andersen & Peter Sandholt Jensen, 2014. "Is Africa's Recent Growth Sustainable?," International Economic Journal, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 28(2), pages 207-223, June.
    12. Fabrizio Coricelli & Aikaterini Karadimitropoulou & Miguel A. León-Ledesma, 2012. "A Disaggregate Characterisation of Recessions," Studies in Economics 1209, School of Economics, University of Kent.
    13. Coricelli Fabrizio & Karadimitropoulou Aikaterini E. & Leon-Ledesma Miguel A., 2016. "Reallocation effects of recessions and financial crises: an industry-level analysis," The B.E. Journal of Macroeconomics, De Gruyter, vol. 16(2), pages 485-522, June.
    14. Cho, Yoonyoung & Tien, Bienvenue N., 2014. "Sub-Saharan Africa's recent growth spurt : an analysis of the sources of growth," Policy Research Working Paper Series 6862, The World Bank.
    15. Ms. Catherine McAuliffe & Ms. Sweta Chaman Saxena & Mr. Masafumi Yabara, 2012. "The East African Community: Prospects for Sustained Growth," IMF Working Papers 2012/272, International Monetary Fund.
    16. Matthew Lockwood, 2013. "What Can Climate-Adaptation Policy in Sub-Saharan Africa Learn from Research on Governance and Politics?," Development Policy Review, Overseas Development Institute, vol. 31(6), pages 647-676, November.
    17. Joao Ricardo Faria & Peter McAdam, 2013. "From Social Contract to Arab Spring: Macroeconomic Adjustment under Regime Change," School of Economics Discussion Papers 0813, School of Economics, University of Surrey.
    18. Ahlerup, Pelle & Baskaran, Thushyanthan & Bigsten, Arne, 2016. "Government Impartiality and Sustained Growth in Sub-Saharan Africa," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 83(C), pages 54-69.
    19. Mr. Marcelo Martinez & Mr. Montfort Mlachila, 2013. "The Quality of the Recent High-Growth Episode in Sub-Saharan Africa," IMF Working Papers 2013/053, International Monetary Fund.
    20. Jacques Yana Mbena, 2022. "The status quo of research in sustainable FDI: exploring the theoretical agenda and policy inferences in West and Central Africa," Future Business Journal, Springer, vol. 8(1), pages 1-16, December.
    21. Mr. Montfort Mlachila & Mr. Tidiane Kinda, 2011. "The Quest for Higher Growth in the WAEMU Region: The Role of Accelerations and Decelerations," IMF Working Papers 2011/174, International Monetary Fund.

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