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Model Selection for Factor Analysis: Some New Criteria and Performance Comparisons

Listed author(s):
  • In Choi

    ()

    (Department of Economics, Sogang University, Seoul)

Registered author(s):

This paper derives Akaike?s (1973) Akaike information criterion (AIC), Hur- vich and Tsai?s (1989) corrected AIC, the Bayesian information criterion (BIC) of Akaike (1978) and Schwarz (1978), and Hannan and Quinn?s (1979) informa- tion criterion for factor models and studies the consistency properties of these information criteria. It also reports extensive simulation results comparing the performance of the extant and new procedures for the selection of the number of factors. The data generating process for the simulation consists of serially cor- related factors and serially and cross-sectionally correlated idiosyncratic errors. The idiosyncratic errors are either homoskedastic or heteroskedastic. Idiosyn- cratic errors with fat tails and those with outliers having a much larger variance than the rest of the errors are also considered. The simulation results show the di¡Ë culty of determining which criterion performs best. In practice, it is advisable to consider several criteria at the same time, especially BIC, Hannan and Quinn?s information criterion, Bai and Ng?s (2002) IC p2 and BIC3, and Onatski?s (2010) and Ahn and Horenstein?s (2009) eigenvalue-based criteria. The model-selection criteria considered in this paper are also applied to Stock and Watson?s (2002, 2005) data sets. The results di¢´er considerably depending on the model-selectioncriterion in use, but evidence suggesting four factors for Stock and Watson?s (2002) data and six or seven factors for Stock and Watson?s (2005) is obtainable.

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File URL: ftp://163.239.156.99/wpaper/CI_RIME_2013_2.pdf
File Function: first version, 2013
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Paper provided by Research Institute for Market Economy, Sogang University in its series Working Papers with number 1209.

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Length: 85 pages
Date of creation: 2013
Handle: RePEc:sgo:wpaper:1209
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1 Sinsu-dong, Mapo-gu, Seoul 121-742

Phone: 82-2-705-8226
Fax: 82-2-705-8226
Web page: http://econdept.sogang.ac.kr/laboratory/information.do
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  2. Forni, Mario & Hallin, Marc & Lippi, Marco & Reichlin, Lucrezia, 2003. "Do financial variables help forecasting inflation and real activity in the euro area?," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 50(6), pages 1243-1255, September.
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  8. Moon, H.R.Hyungsik Roger & Perron, Benoit, 2004. "Testing for a unit root in panels with dynamic factors," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 122(1), pages 81-126, September.
  9. Giannone, Domenico & Reichlin, Lucrezia & Sala, Luca, 2002. "Tracking Greenspan: Systematic and Unsystematic Monetary Policy Revisited," CEPR Discussion Papers 3550, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  10. Altissimo, Filippo & Bassanetti, Antonio & Cristadoro, Riccardo & Forni, Mario & Hallin, Marc & Lippi, Marco & Reichlin, Lucrezia & Veronese, Giovanni, 2001. "EuroCOIN: A Real Time Coincident Indicator of the Euro Area Business Cycle," CEPR Discussion Papers 3108, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  11. Jushan Bai & Serena Ng, 2004. "A PANIC Attack on Unit Roots and Cointegration," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 72(4), pages 1127-1177, 07.
  12. Seung C. Ahn & Alex R. Horenstein, 2013. "Eigenvalue Ratio Test for the Number of Factors," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 81(3), pages 1203-1227, 05.
  13. Alexei Onatski, 2009. "Testing Hypotheses About the Number of Factors in Large Factor Models," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 77(5), pages 1447-1479, 09.
  14. Ludvigson, Sydney C. & Ng, Serena, 2007. "The empirical risk-return relation: A factor analysis approach," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 83(1), pages 171-222, January.
  15. Forni, Mario & Giannone, Domenico & Lippi, Marco & Reichlin, Lucrezia, 2009. "Opening The Black Box: Structural Factor Models With Large Cross Sections," Econometric Theory, Cambridge University Press, vol. 25(05), pages 1319-1347, October.
  16. Anindya Banerjee & Massimiliano Marcellino & Igor Masten, 2005. "Leading Indicators for Euro-area Inflation and GDP Growth," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 67(s1), pages 785-813, December.
  17. Amengual, Dante & Watson, Mark W., 2007. "Consistent Estimation of the Number of Dynamic Factors in a Large N and T Panel," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 25, pages 91-96, January.
  18. Jushan Bai, 2003. "Inferential Theory for Factor Models of Large Dimensions," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 71(1), pages 135-171, January.
  19. Mario Forni & Marc Hallin & Marco Lippi & Lucrezia Reichlin, 2000. "The Generalized Dynamic-Factor Model: Identification And Estimation," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 82(4), pages 540-554, November.
  20. Cristadoro, Riccardo & Forni, Mario & Reichlin, Lucrezia & Veronese, Giovanni, 2005. "A Core Inflation Indicator for the Euro Area," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 37(3), pages 539-560, June.
  21. M. Hashem Pesaran, 2006. "Estimation and Inference in Large Heterogeneous Panels with a Multifactor Error Structure," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 74(4), pages 967-1012, 07.
  22. Kapetanios, George, 2004. "A note on modelling core inflation for the UK using a new dynamic factor estimation method and a large disaggregated price index dataset," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 85(1), pages 63-69, October.
  23. Bai, Jushan & Ng, Serena, 2007. "Determining the Number of Primitive Shocks in Factor Models," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 25, pages 52-60, January.
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  25. Alexei Onatski, 2010. "Determining the Number of Factors from Empirical Distribution of Eigenvalues," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 92(4), pages 1004-1016, November.
  26. Ard H.J. den Reijer, 2005. "Forecasting Dutch GDP using Large Scale Factor Models," DNB Working Papers 028, Netherlands Central Bank, Research Department.
  27. Massimiliano Marcellino & Carlo A. Favero & Francesca Neglia, 2005. "Principal components at work: the empirical analysis of monetary policy with large data sets," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 20(5), pages 603-620.
  28. Francesco Moscone & Elisa Tosetti, 2009. "A Review And Comparison Of Tests Of Cross-Section Independence In Panels," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 23(3), pages 528-561, 07.
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