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Disentangling non-linearities in the long- and short-run price relationships: An application to the U.S. hog/Pork supply chain

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  • Gervais, Jean-Philippe

Abstract

Increased concentration at the retail, food processing and farm input manufacturing levels has brought increased attention to patterns in retail-to-farm price spreads. Most studies documenting asymmetric price transmission focus on non-linear error correction processes, as opposed to the current study which analyzes potential non-linearities in the long-run relationship between the farm and retail prices. The null hypothesis of non-linearity in the long-run relationship between farm and retail prices in the U.S. hog/pork supply chain is rejected in favor of a Smooth Transition Cointegration (STC) framework. The STC framework predicts downward price stickiness in retail prices. The predicted residuals of the non-linear model are used to investigate whether it is possible to disentangle non-linearity in the long-run price relationship from non-linearity in the adjustment towards the long-run equilibrium. The results underline the importance of testing for linearity in the long-run price relationship before modeling non-linearity in short-run dynamics.

Suggested Citation

  • Gervais, Jean-Philippe, 2007. "Disentangling non-linearities in the long- and short-run price relationships: An application to the U.S. hog/Pork supply chain," MPRA Paper 7743, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 15 Jan 2008.
  • Handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:7743
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    Cited by:

    1. Holst, Carsten & Cramon-Taubdel, Stephan von, 2014. "Trade, Market Integration and Spatial Price Transmission on EU Pork Markets following Eastern Enlargement," 54th Annual Conference, Goettingen, Germany, September 17-19, 2014 187598, German Association of Agricultural Economists (GEWISOLA).
    2. Holst, Carsten & von Cramon-Taubadel, Stephan, 2013. "Trade, market integration and spatial price transmission on EU pork markets following Eastern enlargement," DARE Discussion Papers 1307, Georg-August University of Göttingen, Department of Agricultural Economics and Rural Development (DARE).
    3. Götz, Linde & Qiu, Feng & Gervais, Jean-Philippe & Glauben, Thomas, 2013. "Export Restrictions and Multiple Spatial Price Equilibria: Export Quotas for Wheat in Ukraine," 53rd Annual Conference, Berlin, Germany, September 25-27, 2013 156135, German Association of Agricultural Economists (GEWISOLA).
    4. Fousekis, Panos & Katrakilidis, Constantinos & Trachanas, Emmanouil, 2016. "Vertical price transmission in the US beef sector: Evidence from the nonlinear ARDL model," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 52(PB), pages 499-506.
    5. Ahmed, Osama & Serra, Teresa, 2015. "Vertical Price Transmission in the Egyptian Tomato Sector After the Arab Spring," 2015 Conference, August 9-14, 2015, Milan, Italy 212523, International Association of Agricultural Economists.
    6. Linde Götz & Feng Qiu & Jean-Philippe Gervais & Thomas Glauben, 2016. "Export Restrictions and Smooth Transition Cointegration: Export Quotas for Wheat in Ukraine," Journal of Agricultural Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 67(2), pages 398-419, June.
    7. Nasreldin, Osama Ahmed & Devesa, Teresa Serra, 2014. "Price volatility of food staples. The case of millet in Niger," 2014 International Congress, August 26-29, 2014, Ljubljana, Slovenia 182728, European Association of Agricultural Economists.
    8. Ahmed, Osama & Serra, Teresa, 2015. "Evaluate the economic consequences of revenue insurance programs in Spain using copula models. The case of orange and apple," 2015 Conference, August 9-14, 2015, Milan, Italy 212522, International Association of Agricultural Economists.
    9. Jiang, Jingze & Marsh, Thomas L. & Tozer, Peter R., 2015. "Policy induced price volatility transmission: Linking the U.S. crude oil, corn and plastics markets," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 52(PA), pages 217-227.
    10. Abdessalem Abbassi & Lota D. Tamini & Jean‐Philippe Gervais, 2012. "Do Inventories Have an Impact on Price Transmission? Evidence From the Canadian Chicken Industry," Agribusiness, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 28(2), pages 173-186, March.
    11. Emmanoulides, Christos & Fousekis, Panos, 2014. "Vertical Price Transmission in the US Pork Industry: Evidence from Copula Models," Agricultural Economics Review, Greek Association of Agricultural Economists, vol. 15(1), January.
    12. repec:eee:joecas:v:16:y:2017:i:c:p:53-63 is not listed on IDEAS
    13. Santeramo, Fabio Gaetano & von Cramon-Taubadel, Stephan, 2016. "On Perishability and Vertical Price Transmission: empirical evidences from Italy," MPRA Paper 72735, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    14. Gotz, Linde & Qiu, Feng & Gervais, Jean-Philippe & Glauben, Thomas, 2012. "Export Restrictions And Multiple Spatial Price Equilibria When International Prices Spike: Export Quotas For Wheat In Ukraine," 2012: New Rules of Trade?, December 2012, San Diego, California 143179, International Agricultural Trade Research Consortium.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Smooth transition cointegration; farm to retail price transmission; linear cointegration;

    JEL classification:

    • Q11 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Agriculture - - - Aggregate Supply and Demand Analysis; Prices
    • C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes

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