Export Restrictions and Multiple Spatial Price Equilibria: Export Quotas for Wheat in Ukraine
Relatively few models exist that allow for regime-dependent spatial price equilibria. This paper focuses on temporary export restrictions during international commodity price peaks. Theory suggests that export restrictions have price insulating effects and lead to multiple spatial equilibria between domestic and world market prices. Our analysis is unique in that it tests for linear versus non-linear cointegration within a smooth transition cointegration model. Applying this model to the wheat export quota in Ukraine shows that the domestic wheat price was stabilised approximately 30% below the international wheat price during the two recent price spikes. From a global point of view, the domestic wheat price in Ukraine would have increased to the same degree if no country had engaged in price insulating behaviour worldwide from 2006 to 2008.
|Date of creation:||2013|
|Date of revision:|
|Contact details of provider:|| Postal: Bundesallee 50, 38116 Braunschweig|
Phone: 0531 / 596 5501
Fax: 0531 / 596 5599
Web page: http://www.gewisola.de/
More information through EDIRC
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Kapetanios, George & Shin, Yongcheol & Snell, Andy, 2006. "Testing For Cointegration In Nonlinear Smooth Transition Error Correction Models," Econometric Theory, Cambridge University Press, vol. 22(02), pages 279-303, April.
- In Choi & Pentti Saikkonen, 2004. "Testing linearity in cointegrating smooth transition regressions," Econometrics Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 7(2), pages 341-365, December.
- Liefert, William M. & Liefert, Olga & Vocke, Gary & Allen, Edward W., 2010. "Former Soviet Union Region To Play Larger Role in Meeting World Wheat Needs," Amber Waves, United States Department of Agriculture, Economic Research Service, June.
- Kym Anderson & Signe Nelgen, 2010.
"Trade Barrier Volatility and Agricultural Price Stabilization,"
Centre for International Economic Studies Working Papers
2010-16, University of Adelaide, Centre for International Economic Studies.
- Anderson, Kym & Nelgen, Signe, 2012. "Trade Barrier Volatility and Agricultural Price Stabilization," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 40(1), pages 36-48.
- Anderson, Kym & Nelgen, Signe, 2010. "Trade Barrier Volatility and Agricultural Price Stabilization," CEPR Discussion Papers 8102, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- Jaya Krishnakumar & David Neto, 2009. "Estimation and Testing for the Cointegration Rank in a Threshold Cointegrated System," Research Papers by the Institute of Economics and Econometrics, Geneva School of Economics and Management, University of Geneva 2009.01, Institut d'Economie et Econométrie, Université de Genève.
- Gonzalo, J. & Pitarakis, J., 2005.
"Threshold effects in cointegrating relationships,"
Discussion Paper Series In Economics And Econometrics
0506, Economics Division, School of Social Sciences, University of Southampton.
- Robert J. Myers & T.S. Jayne, 2012. "Multiple-Regime Spatial Price Transmission with an Application to Maize Markets in Southern Africa," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 94(1), pages 174-188.
- Islam Hassouneh & Teresa Serra & José M. Gil, 2010. "Price transmission in the Spanish bovine sector: the BSE effect," Agricultural Economics, International Association of Agricultural Economists, vol. 41(1), pages 33-42, 01.
- Anderson, Kym & Martin, Will, 2011.
"Export Restrictions and Price Insulation During Commodity Price Booms,"
CEPR Discussion Papers
8494, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- Will Martin & Kym Anderson, 2012. "Export Restrictions and Price Insulation During Commodity Price Booms," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 94(2), pages 422-427.
- Martin, Will & Anderson, Kym, 2011. "Export restrictions and price insulation during commodity price booms," Policy Research Working Paper Series 5645, The World Bank.
- Dabin Wang & William G. Tomek, 2007. "Commodity Prices and Unit Root Tests," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 89(4), pages 873-889.
- James H. Stock & Mark W. Watson, 1991.
"A simple estimator of cointegrating vectors in higher order integrated systems,"
Working Paper Series, Macroeconomic Issues
91-3, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago.
- Stock, James H & Watson, Mark W, 1993. "A Simple Estimator of Cointegrating Vectors in Higher Order Integrated Systems," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 61(4), pages 783-820, July.
- Kwiatkowski, Denis & Phillips, Peter C. B. & Schmidt, Peter & Shin, Yongcheol, 1992.
"Testing the null hypothesis of stationarity against the alternative of a unit root : How sure are we that economic time series have a unit root?,"
Journal of Econometrics,
Elsevier, vol. 54(1-3), pages 159-178.
- Denis Kwiatkowski & Peter C.B. Phillips & Peter Schmidt, 1991. "Testing the Null Hypothesis of Stationarity Against the Alternative of a Unit Root: How Sure Are We That Economic Time Series Have a Unit Root?," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 979, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University.
- Kwiatkowski, D. & Phillips, P.C.B. & Schmidt, P., 1990. "Testing the Null Hypothesis of Stationarity Against the Alternative of Unit Root : How Sure are we that Economic Time Series have a Unit Root?," Papers 8905, Michigan State - Econometrics and Economic Theory.
- Gervais, Jean-Philippe, 2007.
"Disentangling non-linearities in the long- and short-run price relationships: An application to the U.S. hog/Pork supply chain,"
7743, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 15 Jan 2008.
- Jean-Philippe Gervais, 2011. "Disentangling nonlinearities in the long- and short-run price relationships: an application to the US hog/pork supply chain," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 43(12), pages 1497-1510.
- Goychuk, Kateryna & Meyers, William H., 2011. "Black Sea Wheat Market Integration with the International Wheat Markets: Some Evidence from Co-integration Analysis," 2011 Annual Meeting, July 24-26, 2011, Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania 103894, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association.
- Saikkonen, Pentti & Choi, In, 2004. "Cointegrating Smooth Transition Regressions," Econometric Theory, Cambridge University Press, vol. 20(02), pages 301-340, April.
- Peter Reinhard Hansen, 2000.
"Structural Changes in the Cointegrated Vector Autoregressive Model,"
2000-20, Brown University, Department of Economics.
- Hansen, Peter Reinhard, 2003. "Structural changes in the cointegrated vector autoregressive model," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 114(2), pages 261-295, June.
- Choi, In & Saikkonen, Pentti, 2010. "Tests For Nonlinear Cointegration," Econometric Theory, Cambridge University Press, vol. 26(03), pages 682-709, June.
- Emma C. Stephens & Edward Mabaya & Stephan von Cramon-Taubadel & Christopher B. Barrett, 2012. "Spatial Price Adjustment with and without Trade," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 74(3), pages 453-469, 06.
- Götz, Linde & Glauben, Thomas & Brümmer, Bernhard, 2013. "Wheat export restrictions and domestic market effects in Russia and Ukraine during the food crisis," Food Policy, Elsevier, vol. 38(C), pages 214-226.
- Seo, Myunghwan, 2006. "Bootstrap testing for the null of no cointegration in a threshold vector error correction model," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 134(1), pages 129-150, September.
- Kym Anderson, 2012.
"Agricultural Trade Distortions During the Global Financial Crisis,"
Departmental Working Papers
2012-05, The Australian National University, Arndt-Corden Department of Economics.
- Kym Anderson & Signe Nelgen, 2012. "Agricultural trade distortions during the global financial crisis," Oxford Review of Economic Policy, Oxford University Press, vol. 28(2), pages 235-260, SUMMER.
- Anderson, Kym & Nelgen, Signe, 2012. "Agricultural trade distortions during the global financial crisis," CEPR Discussion Papers 9086, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- Enders, Walter & Siklos, Pierre L, 2001.
"Cointegration and Threshold Adjustment,"
Journal of Business & Economic Statistics,
American Statistical Association, vol. 19(2), pages 166-76, April.
- Tom Doan, . "RATS programs to replicate Enders-Siklos(2001) JBES paper on threshold cointegration," Statistical Software Components RTZ00053, Boston College Department of Economics.
- Tom Doan, . "ENDERSIKLOS: RATS procedure to perform Enders-Siklos test for cointegration with threshold effect," Statistical Software Components RTS00064, Boston College Department of Economics.
- Fackler, Paul L. & Goodwin, Barry K., 2001. "Spatial price analysis," Handbook of Agricultural Economics, in: B. L. Gardner & G. C. Rausser (ed.), Handbook of Agricultural Economics, edition 1, volume 1, chapter 17, pages 971-1024 Elsevier.
- Ghoshray, Atanu, 2010. "Smooth transition effects in price transmission: The case of international wheat export prices," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 106(3), pages 169-171, March.
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:ags:gewi13:156135. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (AgEcon Search)
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.