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Considering threshold effects in the long-run equilibrium in a vector error correction model: An application to the German apple market

  • Goetz, Linde
  • von Cramon-Taubadel, Stephan

We propose a three-step procedure to estimate a regime-dependent vector error correction model (VECM). In this model, not only the short-run adjustment process towards equilibrium is non-linear, as in threshold VECM and Markov switching VECM frameworks, but the long-run equilibrium relationship itself can also display threshold-type non-linearity. The proposed approach is unique in explicitly testing the null hypothesis of linear cointegration against the alternative of threshold cointegration based on the Gonzalo AND PITARAKIS (2006) test. The model is applied to apple price data on wholesale markets in Hamburg and Munich, using the share of domestic apples in total wholesale trade as the threshold variable. We identify four price transmission regimes characterized by different equilibrium relationships and short-run adjustment processes. This proposed approach is particularly suitable for capturing irregular seasonal threshold effects in price transmission typical for fresh fruits and vegetables.

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File URL: http://purl.umn.edu/44247
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Paper provided by European Association of Agricultural Economists in its series 2008 International Congress, August 26-29, 2008, Ghent, Belgium with number 44247.

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Date of creation: 2008
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Handle: RePEc:ags:eaae08:44247
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  10. Goetz, Linde & von Cramon-Taubadel, Stephan, 2007. "Asymmetric Price Transmission In The Israeli Citrus Export Sector In The Aftermath Of Liberalization," 47th Annual Conference, Weihenstephan, Germany, September 26-28, 2007 7594, German Association of Agricultural Economists (GEWISOLA).
  11. Bent Nielsen, 2000. "Cointegration Analysis in the Presence of Structural Breaks in the Deterministic Trend," Econometric Society World Congress 2000 Contributed Papers 1494, Econometric Society.
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