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Considering threshold effects in the long-run equilibrium in a vector error correction model: An application to the German apple market

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  • Goetz, Linde
  • von Cramon-Taubadel, Stephan

Abstract

We propose a three-step procedure to estimate a regime-dependent vector error correction model (VECM). In this model, not only the short-run adjustment process towards equilibrium is non-linear, as in threshold VECM and Markov switching VECM frameworks, but the long-run equilibrium relationship itself can also display threshold-type non-linearity. The proposed approach is unique in explicitly testing the null hypothesis of linear cointegration against the alternative of threshold cointegration based on the Gonzalo AND PITARAKIS (2006) test. The model is applied to apple price data on wholesale markets in Hamburg and Munich, using the share of domestic apples in total wholesale trade as the threshold variable. We identify four price transmission regimes characterized by different equilibrium relationships and short-run adjustment processes. This proposed approach is particularly suitable for capturing irregular seasonal threshold effects in price transmission typical for fresh fruits and vegetables.

Suggested Citation

  • Goetz, Linde & von Cramon-Taubadel, Stephan, 2008. "Considering threshold effects in the long-run equilibrium in a vector error correction model: An application to the German apple market," 2008 International Congress, August 26-29, 2008, Ghent, Belgium 44247, European Association of Agricultural Economists.
    • Handle: RePEc:ags:eaae08:44247
    DOI: 10.22004/ag.econ.44247
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    Cited by:

    1. Zoltán Bakucs & Štefan Bojnec & Imre Fertő, 2015. "Spatial Product Market Integration between Two Small, Open Neighbouring Economies," Agribusiness, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 31(2), pages 171-187, April.
    2. Valdes, R. & Von Cramon, S. & Engler, A., 2018. "The role of fuel prices on the wholesale price relationships between horticultural markets," 2018 Conference, July 28-August 2, 2018, Vancouver, British Columbia 277064, International Association of Agricultural Economists.
    3. Peri, Massimo & Baldi, Lucia, 2010. "Vegetable oil market and biofuel policy: An asymmetric cointegration approach," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 32(3), pages 687-693, May.
    4. Chung-Wei Kao & Jer-Yuh Wan, 2017. "Energy Consumption and Economic Growth: Further Evidence from Taiwan," International Journal of Economics and Finance, Canadian Center of Science and Education, vol. 9(7), pages 165-178, July.
    5. Bakucs, Lajos Zoltan & Falkowski, Jan & Ferto, Imre, 2010. "Milk Market Integration between Hungary and Poland," 84th Annual Conference, March 29-31, 2010, Edinburgh, Scotland 91809, Agricultural Economics Society.
    6. Mann, Janelle & Sephton, Peter, 2016. "Global relationships across crude oil benchmarks," Journal of Commodity Markets, Elsevier, vol. 2(1), pages 1-5.
    7. Serebrennikov, Dmytro & Glauben, Thomas & Goetz, Linde, 2014. "Spatial integration of Russian domestic wheat markets," 2014 International Congress, August 26-29, 2014, Ljubljana, Slovenia 182754, European Association of Agricultural Economists.
    8. Götz, Linde & Qiu, Feng & Gervais, Jean-Philippe & Glauben, Thomas, 2013. "Export Restrictions and Multiple Spatial Price Equilibria: Export Quotas for Wheat in Ukraine," 53rd Annual Conference, Berlin, Germany, September 25-27, 2013 156135, German Association of Agricultural Economists (GEWISOLA).
    9. Amikuzuno, Joseph, 2011. "Border Effects on Spatial Price Transmission between Fresh Tomato Markets in Ghana and Burkina-Faso: Any Case for Promoting Trans-border Trade in West Africa?," 85th Annual Conference, April 18-20, 2011, Warwick University, Coventry, UK 108943, Agricultural Economics Society.
    10. Linde Götz & Feng Qiu & Jean-Philippe Gervais & Thomas Glauben, 2016. "Export Restrictions and Smooth Transition Cointegration: Export Quotas for Wheat in Ukraine," Journal of Agricultural Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 67(2), pages 398-419, June.
    11. Mann, Janelle M., 2013. "Is there a Global Relationship Across Crude Oil Benchmarks?," 2013 Annual Meeting, August 4-6, 2013, Washington, D.C. 150368, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association.
    12. Fabio Gaetano Santeramo, 2015. "Price Transmission in the European Tomatoes and Cauliflowers Sectors," Agribusiness, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 31(3), pages 399-413, June.
    13. Amikuzuno, Joseph, 2011. "Border effects on spatial price transmission between fresh tomato markets in Ghana and Burkina-Faso: Any case for promoting trans-border trade in West Africa?," IAMO Forum 2011: Will the "BRICs Decade" Continue? – Prospects for Trade and Growth 9, Leibniz Institute of Agricultural Development in Central and Eastern Europe (IAMO).
    14. Amikuzuno, Joseph & Donkor, Samuel, 2012. "Border Effects on Spatial Price Transmission between Fresh Tomato Markets in Ghana and Burkina-Faso: Any Case for Promoting Trans-border Trade in West Africa?," 2012 Conference, August 18-24, 2012, Foz do Iguacu, Brazil 126173, International Association of Agricultural Economists.
    15. Bakucs, Zoltan & Ferto, Imre & Benedeka, Zsofia & Molnar, Adrienn, 2015. "Determinants of Horizontal Milk Producer Price Integration," 2015 Conference, August 9-14, 2015, Milan, Italy 212042, International Association of Agricultural Economists.
    16. Gotz, Linde & Qiu, Feng & Gervais, Jean-Philippe & Glauben, Thomas, 2012. "Export Restrictions And Multiple Spatial Price Equilibria When International Prices Spike: Export Quotas For Wheat In Ukraine," 2012: New Rules of Trade? December 2012, San Diego, California 143179, International Agricultural Trade Research Consortium.
    17. Araujo-Encisco, Sergio, 2011. "Analisis de transmision de precios entre los mercados de maiz mexicanos y el mercado estadounidense: metodos lineales y no lineales," Revista Espanola de Estudios Agrosociales y Pesqueros, Ministerio de Medio Ambiente, Rural y Marino (formerly Ministry of Agriculture), issue 229, pages 1-40.

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