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Export Restrictions and Market Uncertainty: Evidence from the Analysis of Price Volatility in the Ukrainian Wheat Market

Author

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  • Götz, Linde
  • Goychuk, Kateryna
  • Glauben, Thomas
  • Meyers, William H.

Abstract

The impact of export restrictions on market uncertainty has not been investigated before. This paper analyses the development of price volatility in the Ukrainian wheat market characterized by export restrictions during the commodity price peaks 2007/08 and 2010/11 within a dynamic conditional correlation GARCH model. We conclude that the export controls in Ukraine have not significantly reduced price volatility on the domestic wheat market. On the contrary, our findings suggest that the multiple and unpredictable political interference of the Ukrainian government on the wheat export market has substantially increased market uncertainty which led to pronounced additional price volatility in the market. The highly uncertain and unpredictable environment of wheat markets with restricted exports has dramatic consequences for the grain sector in Ukraine and prevents its further development.

Suggested Citation

  • Götz, Linde & Goychuk, Kateryna & Glauben, Thomas & Meyers, William H., 2013. "Export Restrictions and Market Uncertainty: Evidence from the Analysis of Price Volatility in the Ukrainian Wheat Market," 2013 Annual Meeting, August 4-6, 2013, Washington, D.C. 150308, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association.
    • Handle: RePEc:ags:aaea13:150308
    DOI: 10.22004/ag.econ.150308
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Götz, Linde & Jaghdani, Tinoush Jamali, 2017. "Russia’S Agricultural Import Substitution Policy: Price Volatility Effects On The Pork Supply Chain," 57th Annual Conference, Weihenstephan, Germany, September 13-15, 2017 262003, German Association of Agricultural Economists (GEWISOLA).
    2. Kulyk, Iryna & Herzfeld, Thomas, 2015. "Impediments to wheat export from Ukraine," 2015 International European Forum (144th EAAE Seminar), February 9-13, 2015, Innsbruck-Igls, Austria 206218, International European Forum on System Dynamics and Innovation in Food Networks.
    3. Imamverdiyev, Nizami & Anders, Sven & Glauben, Thomas & Perekhozhuk, Oleksandr & Prehn, Soren, 2015. "Determinants of Trade Duration of Kazakhstan's Wheat Exports," 2015 Conference, August 9-14, 2015, Milan, Italy 211788, International Association of Agricultural Economists.
    4. An, Henry & Qiu, Feng & Zheng, Yanan, 2016. "How do export controls affect price transmission and volatility spillovers in the Ukrainian wheat and flour markets?," Food Policy, Elsevier, vol. 62(C), pages 142-150.

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