Determinants of Social Progress and its Scenarios under the role of Macroeconomic Instability: Empirics from Pakistan

This study has analyzed the determinants of social progress in the presence of macroeconomic instability in Pakistan over the period of 1980 to 2015. Under-five survival rate is used for measuring social progress and a comprehensive macroeconomic instability index is constructed by incorporating inflation rate, unemployment rate, budget deficit and trade deficit. Augmented Dickey-Fuller (ADF), Philips-Perron (PP) and Dickey-Fuller Generalized Least Square (DF-GLS) unit root tests are used for examining the stationarity of the variables. ARDL bound testing approach is used for co-integration among the variables of the model. Granger causality test is used for causal relationship among variables of the model. The estimated results of the study show that macroeconomic instability has negative and significant impact on under-five survival rate in Pakistan. The results reveal that female education, family planning & health cares and availability of food have positive and significant impact on under-five survival rate in Pakistan. Hence, for increasing social progress there is dire need of stable macroeconomic environment. Moreover, for increasing social progress much attention should be paid on female education, family planning & health cares and availability of food in Pakistan.