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Cereal food commodities in Eastern Africa: consumption - production gap trends and projections for 2020


  • Mkumbwa, Solomon S.


The present paper presents the supply and demand trends of maize, rice and wheat. It provides the supply and demand projections for 2015 and 2020. These projections have been based on change in productivity levels, changes in price, growth of population and income growth. The future supply-demand gap that has been mapped and projected for 2015 and 2020, has been discussed in the light of policy requirements. It is concluded as postulated by Dyson (2009) that an increase in total cereal demand is mainly due to growth in population. A diversification in consumption basket significantly away from maize towards more wheat and rice has been observed. On the supply side, production is constrained by low yield growths. This is more severe for maize. Since population growth is going to be the main element behind the expansion of the regional food demand over the short even to long terms time horizon, then yield growth will be the key to the future expansion of the region’s sustainable food supply. While in the short term imports are covering for the food gap, they may not be feasible in the medium to long term. Volatility of food and fuel prices on the global market makes reliance on distant sources for the bulky staple food commodities fiscally unsustainable, regardless of who is paying for it.

Suggested Citation

  • Mkumbwa, Solomon S., 2011. "Cereal food commodities in Eastern Africa: consumption - production gap trends and projections for 2020," MPRA Paper 42113, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  • Handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:42113

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    References listed on IDEAS

    1. Ali H. Abdelrahman, 1998. "Trends in Sudanese Cereal Production, Consumption, and Trade," Center for Agricultural and Rural Development (CARD) Publications 98-wp198, Center for Agricultural and Rural Development (CARD) at Iowa State University.
    2. Mohapatra, Sandeep & Barrett, Christopher B. & Snyder, Donald L. & Biswas, Basudeb, 1998. "Does Food Aid Really Discourage Food Production?," Economics Research Institute, ERI Study Papers 28369, Utah State University, Economics Department.
    3. Surabhi Mittal, 2008. "Demand-Supply Trends and Projections of Food in India," Macroeconomics Working Papers 22228, East Asian Bureau of Economic Research.
    4. N. A. Burney & M. Akmal, 1991. "Food Demand In Pakistan: An Application Of The Extended Linear Expenditure System," Journal of Agricultural Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 42(2), pages 185-195.
    5. Okoboi, Geofrey, 2010. "Of What Merit is Improved Inputs use in Uganda's Maize Productivity?," 2010 AAAE Third Conference/AEASA 48th Conference, September 19-23, 2010, Cape Town, South Africa 96649, African Association of Agricultural Economists (AAAE).
    6. Ali H. Abdelrahman, 1998. "Trends in Sudanese Cereal Production, Consumption, and Trade," Food and Agricultural Policy Research Institute (FAPRI) Publications 98-wp198, Food and Agricultural Policy Research Institute (FAPRI) at Iowa State University.
    7. Christopher B. Barrett, 1998. "Food Aid: Is It Development Assistance, Trade Promotion, Both, or Neither?," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 80(3), pages 566-571.
    8. J. Scott Armstrong & Kesten C. Green, 2005. "Demand Forecasting: Evidence-based Methods," Monash Econometrics and Business Statistics Working Papers 24/05, Monash University, Department of Econometrics and Business Statistics.
    9. S. Narayan, 2009. "India," Chapters,in: The Political Economy of Trade Reform in Emerging Markets, chapter 7 Edward Elgar Publishing.
    10. Kumar, Praduman & Joshi, P.K. & Birthal, Pratap Singh, 2009. "Demand Projections for Foodgrains in India," Agricultural Economics Research Review, Agricultural Economics Research Association (India), vol. 0(Number 2), pages 1-7, July.
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    Cited by:

    1. Bessler, David & Kibriya, Shahriar & Chen, Junyi & Price, Ed, 2014. "On Forecasting Conflict in Sudan: 2009-2012," MPRA Paper 60069, University Library of Munich, Germany.

    More about this item


    cereal food balance; trends and projections; Eastern Africa;

    JEL classification:

    • C13 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Estimation: General
    • P16 - Economic Systems - - Capitalist Systems - - - Political Economy of Capitalism
    • B41 - Schools of Economic Thought and Methodology - - Economic Methodology - - - Economic Methodology


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