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Demand-Supply Trends and Projections of Food in India

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  • Surabhi Mittal

    (Indian Council for Research on International Economic Rela)

Abstract

The present paper presents the supply and demand trends of rice, wheat, total cereals, pulses, edible oil/oilseeds and sugar/sugarcane. It provides the demand and supply projections for food items during 2011, 2021 and 2026. These projections have been based on change in productivity levels, changes in price, growth of population and income growth. A comparison with projections provided by other scholars has also been made in the paper. Subsequently, the future supply-demand gap has been discussed in the light of policy requirements. It is concluded that an increase in total demand is mainly due to growth in population and per capita income. A diversification in consumption basket significantly away from cereals has been observed. On the supply side, production is constrained by low yield growths. This is more specific in context of total cereals and sugarcane. While in the short and medium term, there might be surplus of cereals in the country, these prospects are likely to diminish in the years to come. This situation is even more alarming for edible oil, sugarcane and pulses. To meet the future food requirements, the country shall have to either increase agricultural production, or depend on imports. In this light, the paper suggests that the policy focus needs to be laid, towards productivity enhancement in agriculture, through public investment in irrigation, development of roads, research and extension.

Suggested Citation

  • Surabhi Mittal, 2008. "Demand-Supply Trends and Projections of Food in India," Indian Council for Research on International Economic Relations, New Delhi Working Papers 209, Indian Council for Research on International Economic Relations, New Delhi, India.
    • Handle: RePEc:ind:icrier:209
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Shenggen Fan & Peter Hazell & Sukhadeo Thorat, 2000. "Government Spending, Growth and Poverty in Rural India," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 82(4), pages 1038-1051.
    2. Surabhi Mittal, 2006. "Structural Shift in Demand for Food: Projections for 2020," Indian Council for Research on International Economic Relations, New Delhi Working Papers 184, Indian Council for Research on International Economic Relations, New Delhi, India.
    3. Rosegrant, Mark W. & Agcaoili-Sombilla, Mercedita C. & Perez, Nicostrato D., 1995. "Global food projections to 2020: implications for investment," 2020 vision discussion papers 5, International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI).
    4. Evenson, Robert E. & Pray, Carl E. & Rosegrant, Mark W., 1999. "Agricultural research and productivity growth in India:," Research reports 109, International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI).
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    Cited by:

    1. Muhammad, Kabeer & Asghar, Zahid, 2012. "Multi-facet approach for food security in Pakistan," MPRA Paper 42891, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    2. Yuanyuan Chen & Changhe Lu, 2018. "A Comparative Analysis on Food Security in Bangladesh, India and Myanmar," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 10(2), pages 1-13, February.
    3. Farzana Sultana Bari & Sanjib Ahmad Talukder Tonoy & Tasrin Jahan & Mohammad Abdul Mannan & Abdus Salam Mondol, 2022. "Analysis of Trends in Food Supply and Intake in Bangladesh," International Journal of Research and Innovation in Social Science, International Journal of Research and Innovation in Social Science (IJRISS), vol. 6(10), pages 252-257, October.
    4. Surabhi Mittal, 2010. "Application of the Quaids Model to the Food Sector in India," Journal of Quantitative Economics, The Indian Econometric Society, vol. 8(1), pages 42-54, January.
    5. Kumar, Anjani & Shinoj, P. & Joshi, P.K., 2010. "Global Economic Crisis and Indian Agriculture: Impacts and Perspectives," Indian Journal of Agricultural Economics, Indian Society of Agricultural Economics, vol. 65(3), pages 1-12.
    6. Jayatilleke S. Bandara, 2013. "What is Driving India’s Food Inflation? A Survey of Recent Evidence," South Asia Economic Journal, Institute of Policy Studies of Sri Lanka, vol. 14(1), pages 127-156, March.
    7. Naveed Hayat & Anwar Hussain & Hazrat Yousaf, 2016. "Food Demand in Pakistan," South Asia Economic Journal, Institute of Policy Studies of Sri Lanka, vol. 17(1), pages 94-113, March.
    8. von Meyer-Höfer, Marie & Juarez Tijerino, Andrea Maria & Spiller, Achim, 2015. "Sustainable food consumption in China and India," GlobalFood Discussion Papers 198718, Georg-August-Universitaet Goettingen, GlobalFood, Department of Agricultural Economics and Rural Development.
    9. Ansari, S.A. & Khan, W., 2015. "India’s Agricultural Trade Potential in Post-WTO Period," Agricultural Economics Research Review, Agricultural Economics Research Association (India), vol. 28(Conferenc).
    10. Niti Aayog GOI, 2016. "Raising Agricultural Productivity and Making Farming Remunerative for Farmers," Working Papers id:8429, eSocialSciences.
    11. Mkumbwa, Solomon S., 2011. "Cereal food commodities in Eastern Africa: consumption - production gap trends and projections for 2020," MPRA Paper 42113, University Library of Munich, Germany.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Q11; Q18;

    JEL classification:

    • Q11 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Agriculture - - - Aggregate Supply and Demand Analysis; Prices
    • Q18 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Agriculture - - - Agricultural Policy; Food Policy; Animal Welfare Policy

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