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Demand-Supply Trends and Projections of Food in India

Author

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  • Surabhi Mittal

    (Indian Council for Research on International Economic Relations)

Abstract

The present paper presents the supply and demand trends of rice, wheat, total cereals, pulses, edible oil/oilseeds and sugar/sugarcane. It provides the demand and supply projections for food items during 2011, 2021 and 2026. These projections have been based on change in productivity levels, changes in price, growth of population and income growth. A comparison with projections provided by other scholars has also been made in the paper. Subsequently, the future supply-demand gap has been discussed in the light of policy requirements. It is concluded that an increase in total demand is mainly due to growth in population and per capita income. A diversification in consumption basket significantly away from cereals has been observed. On the supply side, production is constrained by low yield growths. This is more specific in context of total cereals and sugarcane. While in the short and medium term, there might be surplus of cereals in the country, these prospects are likely to diminish in the years to come. This situation is even more alarming for edible oil, sugarcane and pulses. To meet the future food requirements, the country shall have to either increase agricultural production, or depend on imports. In this light, the paper suggests that the policy focus needs to be laid, towards productivity enhancement in agriculture, through public investment in irrigation, development of roads, research and extension.

Suggested Citation

  • Surabhi Mittal, 2008. "Demand-Supply Trends and Projections of Food in India," Macroeconomics Working Papers 22228, East Asian Bureau of Economic Research.
  • Handle: RePEc:eab:macroe:22228
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Shenggen Fan & Peter Hazell & Sukhadeo Thorat, 2000. "Government Spending, Growth and Poverty in Rural India," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 82(4), pages 1038-1051.
    2. Evenson, Robert E. & Pray, Carl E. & Rosegrant, Mark W., 1999. "Agricultural research and productivity growth in India:," Research reports 109, International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI).
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    Cited by:

    1. Muhammad, Kabeer & Asghar, Zahid, 2012. "Multi-facet approach for food security in Pakistan," MPRA Paper 42891, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    2. Surabhi Mittal, 2010. "Application of the Quaids Model to the Food Sector in India," Journal of Quantitative Economics, The Indian Econometric Society, vol. 8(1), pages 42-54, January.
    3. Kumar, Anjani & Shinoj, P. & Joshi, P.K., 2010. "Global Economic Crisis and Indian Agriculture: Impacts and Perspectives," Indian Journal of Agricultural Economics, Indian Society of Agricultural Economics, vol. 65(3).
    4. von Meyer-Höfer, Marie & Juarez Tijerino, Andrea Maria & Spiller, Achim, 2015. "Sustainable food consumption in China and India," Discussion Papers 198718, Georg-August-Universitaet Goettingen, GlobalFood, Department of Agricultural Economics and Rural Development.
    5. Niti Aayog GOI, 2016. "Raising Agricultural Productivity and Making Farming Remunerative for Farmers," Working Papers id:8429, eSocialSciences.
    6. Mkumbwa, Solomon S., 2011. "Cereal food commodities in Eastern Africa: consumption - production gap trends and projections for 2020," MPRA Paper 42113, University Library of Munich, Germany.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Demand Projection; Supply Projection; India; Food grains;

    JEL classification:

    • Q11 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Agriculture - - - Aggregate Supply and Demand Analysis; Prices
    • Q18 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Agriculture - - - Agricultural Policy; Food Policy

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