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Estimating Demand for Nutrients in Nigeria: A Vector Error Correction Model

  • Ogundari, Kolawole

This article is designed to investigate the existence of relationship between daily per capita demand for nutrients (calorie, protein, and animal fat intake) and economic growth indicator measured by per capita real Gross Domestic Products (GDP). Using annual time series data covering 1961-2007 from Nigeria, the study employed vector error correction model (VECM). The daily per capita demands for nutrients are analyzed as endogenous variables while real per capita GDP was taken as exogenous variable. These series are defined in logarithm. Preliminary investigation revealed that the series were found to be I (1) process at initial level while the series become I (0) after first differences. The trace statistics test shows that the pear of the series on the daily per capita demand for nutrients and per capita real GDP are co-integrated. Hence, the results of VECM shows that in the long-run, per capita real GDP positively and significantly impact per capita demand for nutrients in Nigeria over the years. Specifically, we observed that 1% increase in real GDP significantly increases the demand for calorie, protein and animal fat by 0.073%, 0.068%, and 0.059%, respectively. Also, the result of the short-run dynamics indicated that the speed of adjustment of the demand for calorie, protein and animal fat intake towards long-run equilibrium relationship associated with the shocks in the real GDP from the previous period is about 29%, 41% and 26%, respectively in the current period. Furthermore, we noted that the result of the impulse response function lend support to the observation that real per capita GDP increases the demand for calorie, protein, and fat intake in Nigeria. Our findings provide no support for the hypothesis that growth in real GDP is constrained by the nutrient intake in the same period.

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Paper provided by University Library of Munich, Germany in its series MPRA Paper with number 28930.

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Date of creation: 15 Feb 2011
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Handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:28930
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  1. Tiwari, Sailesh & Zaman, Hassan, 2010. "The impact of economic shocks on global undernourishment," Policy Research Working Paper Series 5215, The World Bank.
  2. Babatunde, Raphael O. & Qaim, Matin, 2010. "Impact of off-farm income on food security and nutrition in Nigeria," Food Policy, Elsevier, vol. 35(4), pages 303-311, August.
  3. P. J. Dawson, 1997. "The demand for calories in developing countries," Oxford Development Studies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 25(3), pages 361-369.
  4. Kwiatkowski, D. & Phillips, P.C.B. & Schmidt, P., 1990. "Testing the Null Hypothesis of Stationarity Against the Alternative of Unit Root : How Sure are we that Economic Time Series have a Unit Root?," Papers 8905, Michigan State - Econometrics and Economic Theory.
  5. Johansen, Soren, 1988. "Statistical analysis of cointegration vectors," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 12(2-3), pages 231-254.
  6. Richard Tiffin & P. J. Dawson, 2002. "The Demand for Calories: Some Further Estimates from Zimbabwe," Journal of Agricultural Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 53(2), pages 221-232.
  7. Babatunde, Raphael O. & Qaim, Matin, 2010. "Impact of Off-farm Income on Food Security and Nutrition in Nigeria," 2010 AAAE Third Conference/AEASA 48th Conference, September 19-23, 2010, Cape Town, South Africa 97332, African Association of Agricultural Economists (AAAE);Agricultural Economics Association of South Africa (AEASA).
  8. Philip J. Dawson & Richard Tiffin, 1998. "Estimating the Demand for Calories in India," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 80(3), pages 474-481.
  9. repec:ebl:ecbull:v:17:y:2008:i:8:p:1-11 is not listed on IDEAS
  10. Dickey, David A & Fuller, Wayne A, 1981. "Likelihood Ratio Statistics for Autoregressive Time Series with a Unit Root," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 49(4), pages 1057-72, June.
  11. Harris Neeliah & Bhavani Shankar, 2008. "Is nutritional improvement a cause or a consequence of economic growth? Evidence from Mauritius," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 17(8), pages 1-11.
  12. José M. Gil & Azucena Gracia & Ana M. Angulo, 2001. "articles: Calorie intake and income elasticities in EU countries: A convergence analysis using cointegration," Papers in Regional Science, Springer, vol. 80(2), pages 165-187.
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