IDEAS home Printed from
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Carbon and Energy Prices: Surfing the Wavelets of California




Carbon price is a key variable in management and risk decisions in activities related to the burning of fossil fuels. Using innovative multivariate wavelet analysis, we study the link between carbon prices and primary and final energy prices in the time and frequency dimensions, particularly in longer cycles (4 ∼ 8 and 8 ∼ 20 months). We show a tight relation between carbon and electricity prices, co-moving together in one-year cycles, with electricity slightly leading, in opposition with previous results obtained for Europe. Thus, an over-allocation of allowances to the power generating sector is suggested. We also find indication of an out-of-phase relation between carbon and oil prices, with oil leading, and expect this relation to intensify when including fuel distributors in the CA market. Finally, and contrary to EU ETS previous results, we do not find a significant relation between carbon and economic activity. In conclusion, although our results are not as significant as the ones previously obtained by other authors, for Europe, they show that the variables are related in the longer term, which supports the development of emissions trading in the post-2020.

Suggested Citation

  • Rita Sousa & Luís Francisco Aguiar-Conraria & Maria Joana Soares, "undated". "Carbon and Energy Prices: Surfing the Wavelets of California," NIPE Working Papers 19/2014, NIPE - Universidade do Minho.
  • Handle: RePEc:nip:nipewp:19/2014

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL:
    Download Restriction: no

    References listed on IDEAS

    1. Alberola, Emilie & Chevallier, Julien & Chèze, Benoît, 2009. "Emissions Compliances and Carbon Prices under the EU ETS: A Country Specific Analysis of Industrial Sectors," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 31(3), pages 446-462, May.
    2. Keppler, Jan Horst & Mansanet-Bataller, Maria, 2010. "Causalities between CO2, electricity, and other energy variables during phase I and phase II of the EU ETS," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 38(7), pages 3329-3341, July.
    3. Creti, Anna & Jouvet, Pierre-André & Mignon, Valérie, 2012. "Carbon price drivers: Phase I versus Phase II equilibrium?," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 34(1), pages 327-334.
    4. Jammazi, Rania, 2012. "Cross dynamics of oil-stock interactions: A redundant wavelet analysis," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 44(1), pages 750-777.
    5. Chevallier, Julien, 2011. "Detecting instability in the volatility of carbon prices," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 33(1), pages 99-110, January.
    6. Vacha, Lukas & Barunik, Jozef, 2012. "Co-movement of energy commodities revisited: Evidence from wavelet coherence analysis," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 34(1), pages 241-247.
    7. Sijm, Jos & Chen, Yihsu & Hobbs, Benjamin F., 2012. "The impact of power market structure on CO2 cost pass-through to electricity prices under quantity competition – A theoretical approach," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 34(4), pages 1143-1152.
    8. Lutz, Benjamin Johannes & Pigorsch, Uta & Rotfuß, Waldemar, 2013. "Nonlinearity in cap-and-trade systems: The EUA price and its fundamentals," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 40(C), pages 222-232.
    9. Reboredo, Juan C., 2014. "Volatility spillovers between the oil market and the European Union carbon emission market," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 36(C), pages 229-234.
    10. Tiwari, Aviral Kumar & Mutascu, Mihai Ioan & Albulescu, Claudiu Tiberiu, 2013. "The influence of the international oil prices on the real effective exchange rate in Romania in a wavelet transform framework," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 40(C), pages 714-733.
    11. Feng, Zhen-Hua & Zou, Le-Le & Wei, Yi-Ming, 2011. "Carbon price volatility: Evidence from EU ETS," Applied Energy, Elsevier, pages 590-598.
    12. Naccache, Théo, 2011. "Oil price cycles and wavelets," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 33(2), pages 338-352, March.
    13. Byun, Suk Joon & Cho, Hangjun, 2013. "Forecasting carbon futures volatility using GARCH models with energy volatilities," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 40(C), pages 207-221.
    14. Sivaraman, Deepak & Moore, Michael R., 2012. "Economic performance of grid-connected photovoltaics in California and Texas (United States): The influence of renewable energy and climate policies," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 49(C), pages 274-287.
    15. Carlos Pinho & Mara Madaleno, 2011. "CO 2 emission allowances and other fuel markets interaction," Environmental Economics and Policy Studies, Springer;Society for Environmental Economics and Policy Studies - SEEPS, vol. 13(3), pages 259-281, September.
    16. Rittler, Daniel, 2012. "Price discovery and volatility spillovers in the European Union emissions trading scheme: A high-frequency analysis," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 36(3), pages 774-785.
    17. Aatola, Piia & Ollikainen, Markku & Toppinen, Anne, 2013. "Price determination in the EU ETS market: Theory and econometric analysis with market fundamentals," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 36(C), pages 380-395.
    18. Medina, Vicente & Pardo, Ángel & Pascual, Roberto, 2014. "The timeline of trading frictions in the European carbon market," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 42(C), pages 378-394.
    19. King, Robert G & Watson, Mark W, 1996. "Money, Prices, Interest Rates and the Business Cycle," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 78(1), pages 35-53, February.
    20. Liu, Hsiang-Hsi & Chen, Yi-Chun, 2013. "A study on the volatility spillovers, long memory effects and interactions between carbon and energy markets: The impacts of extreme weather," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 35(C), pages 840-855.
    21. Fine, James & Busch, Christopher & Garderet, Remy, 2012. "The upside hedge value of California's global warming policy given uncertain future oil prices," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 44(C), pages 46-51.
    22. Luís Aguiar-Conraria & Pedro Magalhães & Maria Soares, 2013. "The nationalization of electoral cycles in the United States: a wavelet analysis," Public Choice, Springer, vol. 156(3), pages 387-408, September.
    23. Kyrtsou, Catherine & Malliaris, Anastasios G. & Serletis, Apostolos, 2009. "Energy sector pricing: On the role of neglected nonlinearity," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 31(3), pages 492-502, May.
    24. Sousa, Rita & Aguiar-Conraria, Luís & Soares, Maria Joana, 2014. "Carbon financial markets: A time–frequency analysis of CO2 prices," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 414(C), pages 118-127.
    25. repec:dau:papers:123456789/5269 is not listed on IDEAS
    26. Kumar, Surender & Managi, Shunsuke & Matsuda, Akimi, 2012. "Stock prices of clean energy firms, oil and carbon markets: A vector autoregressive analysis," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 34(1), pages 215-226.
    27. repec:dau:papers:123456789/5110 is not listed on IDEAS
    28. Aloui, Chaker & Hkiri, Besma, 2014. "Co-movements of GCC emerging stock markets: New evidence from wavelet coherence analysis," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 36(C), pages 421-431.
    29. Bushnell, James & Chen, Yihsu & Zaragoza-Watkins, Matthew, 2014. "Downstream regulation of CO2 emissions in California's electricity sector," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 64(C), pages 313-323.
    30. Nicolas Koch, 2014. "Dynamic linkages among carbon, energy and financial markets: a smooth transition approach," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 46(7), pages 715-729, March.
    31. repec:dau:papers:123456789/4224 is not listed on IDEAS
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    More about this item


    Carbon market; Energy prices; WCI; Multivariate wavelet analysisCreation-Date: 2014;

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:


    Access and download statistics


    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:nip:nipewp:19/2014. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Maria João Thompson). General contact details of provider: .

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service hosted by the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis . RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.