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Chemical Fertilizer and Migration in China

Author

Listed:
  • Avraham Ebenstein
  • Jian Zhang
  • Margaret S. McMillan
  • Kevin Chen

Abstract

This paper examines a possible connection between China's massive rural to urban migration and high chemical fertilizer use rates during the late 1980s and 1990s. Using panel data on villages in rural China (1987-2002), we find that labor out-migration and fertilizer use per hectare are positively correlated. Using 2SLS, employing the opening of a Special Economic Zone in a nearby city as an instrument, we find that village fertilizer use is linked to contemporaneous short-term out-migration of farm workers. We also examine the long-term environmental consequences of chemical fertilizer use during this period. Using OLS, we find that fertilizer use intensity is correlated with future fertilizer use rates and diminished effectiveness of fertilizer, demonstrating persistency in use patterns, and suggesting that in areas with high use of fertilizer, the land is becoming less responsive. We also demonstrate that fertilizer use within a river basin is correlated with organic forms of water pollution, suggesting that industrialization has induced pollution in China both directly and through its impact on rural labor supply.

Suggested Citation

  • Avraham Ebenstein & Jian Zhang & Margaret S. McMillan & Kevin Chen, 2011. "Chemical Fertilizer and Migration in China," NBER Working Papers 17245, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    • Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:17245
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Wenhao Song & Chunhui Ye, 2022. "Impact of the Cultivated-Land-Management Scale on Fertilizer Reduction—Empirical Evidence from the Countryside of China," Land, MDPI, vol. 11(8), pages 1-15, July.
    2. Elizabeth Brainerd, 2012. "Seasonal Effects of Water Quality on Infant and Child Health in India," Working Papers id:5119, eSocialSciences.
    3. Brainerd, Elizabeth & Menon, Nidhiya, 2014. "Seasonal effects of water quality: The hidden costs of the Green Revolution to infant and child health in India," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 107(C), pages 49-64.
    4. Shilei Pan & Chenhui Di & Abbas Ali Chandio & Ghulam Raza Sargani & Huaquan Zhang, 2022. "Investigating the Impact of Grain Subsidy Policy on Farmers’ Green Production Behavior: Recent Evidence from China," Agriculture, MDPI, vol. 12(8), pages 1-19, August.
    5. Frison, Emile & Clément, Chantal, 2020. "The potential of diversified agroecological systems to deliver healthy outcomes: Making the link between agriculture, food systems & health," Food Policy, Elsevier, vol. 96(C).
    6. Hua Lu & Hualin Xie & Qianru Chen & Jinfa Jiang, 2018. "Impact of Agricultural Labor Transfer and Structural Adjustment on Chemical Application: Comparison of Past Developments in the Ecological Civilization Pilot Zones of China and Their Future Implicatio," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 10(6), pages 1-14, June.
    7. Jianfei Shen & Erli Dan & Yalin Lu & Yiwei Guo, 2021. "Exploratory Research on Overfertilization in Grain Production and Its Relationship with Financial Factors: Evidence from China," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 13(4), pages 1-19, February.
    8. Chao Zhang & Ruifa Hu, 2020. "Does Fertilizer Use Intensity Respond to the Urban-Rural Income Gap? Evidence from a Dynamic Panel-Data Analysis in China," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 12(1), pages 1-15, January.
    9. Lai, Wangyang, 2017. "Pesticide use and health outcomes: Evidence from agricultural water pollution in China," Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, Elsevier, vol. 86(C), pages 93-120.
    10. Zhang, C. & Sun, Y. & Hu, R., 2018. "Does urban-rural income inequality increase agricultural fertilizer or pesticide use? A provincial panel data analysis in China," 2018 Conference, July 28-August 2, 2018, Vancouver, British Columbia 277033, International Association of Agricultural Economists.
    11. Lin Xie & Zeyuan Qiu & Liangzhi You & Yang Kang, 2020. "A Macro Perspective on the Relationship between Farm Size and Agrochemicals Use in China," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 12(21), pages 1-17, November.
    12. Guangcheng Ren & Xueqin Zhu & Shuyi Feng, 2023. "The Impact of Migration on Farm Performance: Evidence from Rice Farmers in China," Agriculture, MDPI, vol. 13(3), pages 1-14, March.
    13. Cao, Yueming & Bai, Yunli & Sun, Mingxing & Xu, Xiangbo & Fu, Chao & Zhang, Linxiu, 2022. "Experience and lessons from the implementing of the latest Land Certificated Program in rural China," Land Use Policy, Elsevier, vol. 114(C).
    14. Siqi Zheng & Matthew E. Kahn, 2013. "Understanding China's Urban Pollution Dynamics," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 51(3), pages 731-772, September.
    15. Yunju, Li & Kahrl, Fredrich & Jianjun, Pan & Roland-Holst, David & Yufang, Su & Wilkes, Andreas & Jianchu, Xu, 2012. "Fertilizer use patterns in Yunnan Province, China: Implications for agricultural and environmental policy," Agricultural Systems, Elsevier, vol. 110(C), pages 78-89.

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    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • O1 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development
    • O13 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development - - - Agriculture; Natural Resources; Environment; Other Primary Products

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