IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/lan/wpaper/189398493.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

The effects of test scores and truancy on youth unemployment and inactivity: A simultaneous equations approach

Author

Listed:
  • Steven Bradley
  • Robert Crouchley

Abstract

In this paper we analyse the interactions between, and determinants of, test scores, truancy and the risk of youth unemployment and NEET in a simultaneous equations framework. This approach allows us to disentangle the observable direct and indirect effects of truancy and test scores on the risk of unemployment and NEET from their unobserved effects. We use a unique data source, combining the Youth Cohort Study, the School Performance Tables, and the School’s Census, enabling us to control for a large number of personal, family, school, peer group and neighbourhood effects on the three response variables. Our findings suggest that models of the determinants of youth unemployment and NEET that ignore correlation between the unobservables of the determinants test scores and truancy will lead to misleading inference about the magnitude and strength of their direct effects. However, our findings also suggest that truancy has a indirect effect on labour market outcomes via its effect on test scores. Truancy does have an unobserved effect on the risk of unemployment and the risk of NEET insofar as the correlation between latent variables for truancy and labour market outcomes are positive and statistically significant. Test scores have a direct effect on labour market outcomes, and through the estimation of ATTs, we show a good performance in high stakes tests (i.e. GCSEs) can mitigate the effect of truanting from school on labour market outcomes.

Suggested Citation

  • Steven Bradley & Robert Crouchley, 2017. "The effects of test scores and truancy on youth unemployment and inactivity: A simultaneous equations approach," Working Papers 189398493, Lancaster University Management School, Economics Department.
    • Handle: RePEc:lan:wpaper:189398493
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.lancaster.ac.uk/media/lancaster-university/content-assets/documents/lums/economics/working-papers/LancasterWP2017_021.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. repec:bla:econom:v:68:y:2001:i:270:p:221-41 is not listed on IDEAS
    2. Dustmann, C. & Rajah, N. & van Soest, A.H.O., 1998. "School Quality, Exam Performance and Career Choice," Other publications TiSEM a00aaabe-3eb5-4c67-8d1a-2, Tilburg University, School of Economics and Management.
    3. repec:sae:niesru:v:148:y::i:1:p:73-97 is not listed on IDEAS
    4. Christian Dustmann & Najma Rajah & Stephen Smith, 1997. "Teenage truancy, part-time working and wages," Journal of Population Economics, Springer;European Society for Population Economics, vol. 10(4), pages 425-442.
    5. Christian Dustmann & Arthur Soest, 2008. "Part-time work, school success and school leaving," Studies in Empirical Economics, in: Christian Dustmann & Bernd Fitzenberger & Stephen Machin (ed.), The Economics of Education and Training, pages 23-45, Springer.
    6. Card, David & Krueger, Alan B, 1992. "Does School Quality Matter? Returns to Education and the Characteristics of Public Schools in the United States," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 100(1), pages 1-40, February.
    7. repec:lan:wpaper:1092 is not listed on IDEAS
    8. Franz Buscha & Anna Conte, 2009. "A Bivariate Ordered Probit Estimator with Mixed Effects," Jena Economics Research Papers 2009-103, Friedrich-Schiller-University Jena.
    9. Feinstein, Leon & Symons, James, 1999. "Attainment in Secondary School," Oxford Economic Papers, Oxford University Press, vol. 51(2), pages 300-321, April.
    10. Thomas Fuchs & Ludger Wößmann, 2008. "What accounts for international differences in student prformance? A re-examination using PISA data," Studies in Empirical Economics, in: Christian Dustmann & Bernd Fitzenberger & Stephen Machin (ed.), The Economics of Education and Training, pages 209-240, Springer.
    11. Steve Bradley & Jim Taylor, 1998. "The Effect of School Size on Exam Performance in Secondary Schools," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 60(3), pages 291-324, August.
    12. Hanushek, Eric A, 1992. "The Trade-Off between Child Quantity and Quality," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 100(1), pages 84-117, February.
    13. Steve Bradley & Anh Ngoc Nguyen, 2004. "The School-to-Work Transition," Chapters, in: Geraint Johnes & Jill Johnes (ed.), International Handbook on the Economics of Education, chapter 13, Edward Elgar Publishing.
    14. Andreas Knabe & Steffen Rätzel, 2011. "Scarring or Scaring? The Psychological Impact of Past Unemployment and Future Unemployment Risk," Economica, London School of Economics and Political Science, vol. 78(310), pages 283-293, April.
    15. Fiona Steele & Anna Vignoles & Andrew Jenkins, 2007. "The effect of school resources on pupil attainment: a multilevel simultaneous equation modelling approach," Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series A, Royal Statistical Society, vol. 170(3), pages 801-824, July.
    16. Patricia Rice, 1999. "The impact of local labour markets on investment in further education: Evidence from the England and Wales youth cohort studies," Journal of Population Economics, Springer;European Society for Population Economics, vol. 12(2), pages 287-312.
    17. repec:lan:wpaper:1016 is not listed on IDEAS
    18. Loeb, Susanna & Bound, John, 1996. "The Effect of Measured School Inputs on Academic Achievement: Evidence form the 1920s, 1930s and 1940s Birth Cohorts," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 78(4), pages 653-664, November.
    19. Geraint Johnes & Jill Johnes (ed.), 2004. "International Handbook on the Economics of Education," Books, Edward Elgar Publishing, number 2847.
    20. Bhat, Chandra R. & Pulugurta, Vamsi, 1998. "A comparison of two alternative behavioral choice mechanisms for household auto ownership decisions," Transportation Research Part B: Methodological, Elsevier, vol. 32(1), pages 61-75, January.
    21. P. N. Junankar (ed.), 1987. "From School to Unemployment?," Palgrave Macmillan Books, Palgrave Macmillan, number 978-1-349-18942-7, December.
    22. repec:bla:obuest:v:60:y:1998:i:3:p:291-324:a is not listed on IDEAS
    23. John Micklewright & Najma Rajah & Stephen Smith, 1994. "Labouring and Learning: Part-Time Work and Full-Time Education," National Institute Economic Review, National Institute of Economic and Social Research, vol. 148(1), pages 73-97, May.
    24. repec:bla:econom:v:54:y:1987:i:216:p:465-75 is not listed on IDEAS
    25. Andrew Clark & Yannis Georgellis & Peter Sanfey, 2001. "Scarring: The Psychological Impact of Past Unemployment," Economica, London School of Economics and Political Science, vol. 68(270), pages 221-241, May.
    26. repec:bla:econom:v:68:y:2001:i:270:p:137-56 is not listed on IDEAS
    27. P. N. Junankar, 1987. "The Labour Market for Young People," Palgrave Macmillan Books, in: P. N. Junankar (ed.), From School to Unemployment?, chapter 1, pages 1-12, Palgrave Macmillan.
    28. Derek Leslie & Stephen Drinkwatr, 1999. "Staying on in Full‐Time Education: Reasons for Higher Participation Rates Among Ethnic Minority Males and Females," Economica, London School of Economics and Political Science, vol. 66(261), pages 63-77, February.
    29. Martyn Andrews & Steve Bradley, 1997. "Modelling the Transition from School and the Demand for Training in the United Kingdom," Economica, London School of Economics and Political Science, vol. 64(255), pages 387-413, August.
    30. Kathryn Duckworth & Ingrid Schoon, 2012. "Beating the Odds: Exploring the Impact of Social Risk on Young People's School-to-Work Transitions during Recession in the UK," National Institute Economic Review, National Institute of Economic and Social Research, vol. 222(1), pages 38-51, October.
    31. Wilde, Joachim, 2000. "Identification of multiple equation probit models with endogenous dummy regressors," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 69(3), pages 309-312, December.
    32. Stephen Gibbons & Sandra McNally, 2013. "The Effects of Resources Across School Phases: A Summary of Recent Evidence," CEP Discussion Papers dp1226, Centre for Economic Performance, LSE.
    33. Marcel Dagenais & Claude Montmarquette & Nathalie Viennot-Briot, 2001. "Dropout, School Performance and Working while in School : An Econometric Model with Heterogeneous Groups," CIRANO Working Papers 2001s-63, CIRANO.
    34. David Roodman, 2009. "Mixed-process models with cmp," DC09 Stata Conference 11, Stata Users Group.
    35. repec:bla:econom:v:56:y:1989:i:221:p:25-39 is not listed on IDEAS
    36. Donald Robertson & James Symons, 1996. "Do peer Groups Matter? Peer Groups versus Schooling Effects on Academic Attainment," CEP Discussion Papers dp0311, Centre for Economic Performance, LSE.
    37. David Roodman, 2009. "Estimating Fully Observed Recursive Mixed-Process Models with cmp," Working Papers 168, Center for Global Development.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Steve Bradley & Rob Crouchley, 2020. "The effects of test scores and truancy on youth unemployment and inactivity: a simultaneous equations approach," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 59(4), pages 1799-1831, October.
    2. Steve Bradley & Jim Taylor, 2004. "Ethnicity, educational attainment and the transition from school," Manchester School, University of Manchester, vol. 72(3), pages 317-346, June.
    3. repec:lan:wpaper:4769 is not listed on IDEAS
    4. repec:lan:wpaper:4467 is not listed on IDEAS
    5. Regina T. Riphahn, 2010. "Residential Location and Youth Unemployment: The Economic Geography of School-To-Work," Working Papers id:2648, eSocialSciences.
    6. repec:lan:wpaper:4772 is not listed on IDEAS
    7. Christian Dustmann & Najma Rajah & Arthur van Soest, 2003. "Class Size, Education, and Wages," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 113(485), pages 99-120, February.
    8. Regina T. Riphahn, 2002. "Residential location and youth unemployment: The economic geography of school-to-work transitions," Journal of Population Economics, Springer;European Society for Population Economics, vol. 15(1), pages 115-135.
    9. repec:lan:wpaper:4470 is not listed on IDEAS
    10. Pamela Lenton, 2006. "Where do I go and what should I do? Routes through further education," Working Papers 2006014, The University of Sheffield, Department of Economics, revised Dec 2006.
    11. Duncan McVicar, 2001. "School Quality and Staying-On in Northern Ireland - Resources, Peer Groups and Ethos," The Economic and Social Review, Economic and Social Studies, vol. 32(2), pages 131-151.
    12. repec:lan:wpaper:4343 is not listed on IDEAS
    13. repec:lan:wpaper:4471 is not listed on IDEAS
    14. Maria Iacovou, 2002. "Class Size in the Early Years: Is Smaller Really Better?," Education Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 10(3), pages 261-290.
    15. repec:zbw:rwidps:0002 is not listed on IDEAS
    16. McVicar, Duncan, 2000. "Are Secondary Schools In Northern Ireland Too Small? A Microeconomic Analysis Of School Size And Career Choice At Sixteen," ERSA conference papers ersa00p149, European Regional Science Association.
    17. L Feinstein & James Symons, 1997. "Attainment in Secondary School," CEP Discussion Papers dp0341, Centre for Economic Performance, LSE.
    18. Fertig, Michael, 2003. "Educational Production, Endogenous Peer Group Formation and Class Composition - Evidence From the PISA 2000 Study," RWI Discussion Papers 2, RWI - Leibniz-Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung.
    19. repec:qld:uq2004:508 is not listed on IDEAS
    20. Richard Barnett & J. Colin Glass & Roger Snowdon & Karl Stringer, 2002. "Size, Performance and Effectiveness: Cost-Constrained Measures of Best-Practice Performance and Secondary-School Size," Education Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 10(3), pages 291-311.
    21. Fichera, Eleonora & Sutton, Matt, 2011. "State and self investments in health," Journal of Health Economics, Elsevier, vol. 30(6), pages 1164-1173.
    22. Michael Fertig, 2002. "Educational Production, Endogenous Peer Group Formation and Class Composition – Evidence From the PISA 2000 Study," RWI Discussion Papers 0002, Rheinisch-Westfälisches Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung.
    23. Lanzi, Diego, 2007. "Capabilities, human capital and education," Journal of Behavioral and Experimental Economics (formerly The Journal of Socio-Economics), Elsevier, vol. 36(3), pages 424-435, June.
    24. Paolo Lucchino & Dr Richard Dorsett, 2013. "Visualising the school-to-work transition: an analysis using optimal matching," National Institute of Economic and Social Research (NIESR) Discussion Papers 414, National Institute of Economic and Social Research.
    25. Arnaud Chevalier & Gauthier Lanot, 2001. "The relative effect of family and financial characteristics on educational echievement," CEE Discussion Papers 0008, Centre for the Economics of Education, LSE.
    26. Arnaud Chevalier & Gauthier Lanot, 2002. "The Relative Effect of Family Characteristics and Financial Situation on Educational Achievement," Education Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 10(2), pages 165-181.
    27. Steve Gibbons, 2002. "Geography, Resources and Primary School Performance," CEE Discussion Papers 0025, Centre for the Economics of Education, LSE.
    28. Paolo Lucchino & Dr Richard Dorsett, 2013. "Visualising the school-to-work transition: an analysis using optimal matching," National Institute of Economic and Social Research (NIESR) Discussion Papers 414, National Institute of Economic and Social Research.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Youth unemployment; truancy; test scores; Simultaneous equations;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • I21 - Health, Education, and Welfare - - Education - - - Analysis of Education
    • J64 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Mobility, Unemployment, Vacancies, and Immigrant Workers - - - Unemployment: Models, Duration, Incidence, and Job Search

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:lan:wpaper:189398493. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Giorgio Motta (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/delanuk.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.