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The Effect of Conflict on Refugees' Return and Integration: Evidence from Ukraine

Author

Listed:
  • Adema, Joop

    (University of Munich)

  • Aksoy, Cevat Giray

    (European Bank for Reconstruction and Development)

  • Giesing, Yvonne

    (Ifo Institute for Economic Research)

  • Poutvaara, Panu

    (University of Munich)

Abstract

What is the causal effect of conflict on refugees' return and integration? To answer this question, we launched a panel survey of Ukrainian refugees across Europe in June 2022 and combined it with geocoded conflict data. Most refugees plan to return, and initial return intentions strongly predict actual return. Those who initially plan to settle outside Ukraine integrate faster. Increased conflict intensity in the home municipality discourages return there, but not to Ukraine as a whole. It also has no effect on the likelihood of working. Liberation of the home district increases return, while increased pessimism about the outcome of the war reduces return intentions.

Suggested Citation

  • Adema, Joop & Aksoy, Cevat Giray & Giesing, Yvonne & Poutvaara, Panu, 2024. "The Effect of Conflict on Refugees' Return and Integration: Evidence from Ukraine," IZA Discussion Papers 16962, IZA Network @ LISER.
    • Handle: RePEc:iza:izadps:dp16962
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Elinder, Mikael & Erixson, Oscar & Hammar, Olle, 2024. "How Has the War in Ukraine Affected Russian Sentiments?," IZA Discussion Papers 17457, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    2. Joop Age Harm Adema & Cevat Giray Aksoy & Yvonne Giesing & Panu Poutvaara, 2024. "Ukrainian Refugees’ Return Intentions and Integration in the Course of Time," EconPol Forum, CESifo, vol. 25(06), pages 36-40, November.
    3. Piotr Lewandowski & Agata Gorny & Mateusz Krzakała & Marta Palczynska, 2025. "This paper studies how job task routinization shapes return intentions of Ukrainian war refugees in Poland following Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine in 2022. Using two waves of nationwide su," IBS Working Papers 01/2025, Instytut Badan Strukturalnych.
    4. Joop Adema & Lasha Chargaziia & Yvonne Giesing & Sarah Necker & Panu Poutvaara, 2025. "What Drives Refugees’ Return After Conflict?," RFBerlin Discussion Paper Series 2565, ROCKWOOL Foundation Berlin (RFBerlin).

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    Keywords

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    JEL classification:

    • D74 - Microeconomics - - Analysis of Collective Decision-Making - - - Conflict; Conflict Resolution; Alliances; Revolutions
    • F22 - International Economics - - International Factor Movements and International Business - - - International Migration
    • J15 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics - - - Economics of Minorities, Races, Indigenous Peoples, and Immigrants; Non-labor Discrimination
    • J24 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demand and Supply of Labor - - - Human Capital; Skills; Occupational Choice; Labor Productivity

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