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The Role of Job Task Degradation in Shaping Return Intentions: Evidence from Ukrainian War Refugees in Poland

Author

Listed:
  • Piotr Lewandowski
  • Agata Górny
  • Mateusz KrzÄ…kaÅ‚a
  • Marta PalczyÅ„ska

Abstract

This paper studies the relationship between professional experiences and return intentions of Ukrainian war refugees in Poland, following Russia's full-scale invasion of Ukraine in February 2022. Using country-wide, online surveys conducted in 2022 and 2023 and worker-level measures of job tasks, we show that refugees' high employment rate coexists with widespread occupational downgrading and task degradation. Refugees transitioning to lower-skilled jobs after arriving in Poland faced stark increases in routine task intensity (RTI), often equivalent to shifts from managerial to clerical roles. Even those retaining their occupational status experienced heightened RTI, signalling underutilisation of skills. We find that refugees who experience a greater task degradation were more likely to plan to return to Ukraine by 2023, particularly those who initially, in 2022, did not plan to return. This relationship persists even after accounting for earnings and occupational downgrading. These findings underscore the role of job content in shaping migration decisions and highlight implications for host countries' labour market policies and refugee integration strategies.

Suggested Citation

  • Piotr Lewandowski & Agata Górny & Mateusz KrzÄ…kaÅ‚a & Marta PalczyÅ„ska, 2025. "The Role of Job Task Degradation in Shaping Return Intentions: Evidence from Ukrainian War Refugees in Poland," IBS Working Papers 01/2025, Instytut Badan Strukturalnych.
    • Handle: RePEc:ibt:wpaper:wp012025
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    migration; return intentions; occupational downgrading; task content of jobs;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • J24 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demand and Supply of Labor - - - Human Capital; Skills; Occupational Choice; Labor Productivity
    • J61 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Mobility, Unemployment, Vacancies, and Immigrant Workers - - - Geographic Labor Mobility; Immigrant Workers
    • O15 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development - - - Economic Development: Human Resources; Human Development; Income Distribution; Migration

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