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This paper studies how job task routinization shapes return intentions of Ukrainian war refugees in Poland following Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine in 2022. Using two waves of nationwide survey data from 2022 and 2023 with worker-level measures of job tasks, we document widespread occupational downgrading accompanied by substantial task routinization, namely an increase in routine task intensity (RTI) as compared to jobs held pre-displacement. Task routinization is substantial among both refugees who transition to lower-skilled occupations and those who nominally retain their pre-war occupational status. Guided by a framework in which task routinization reduces skill utilisation and job satisfaction, we show that refugees experiencing larger RTI increases are significantly more likely to plan a return to Ukraine by 2023, particularly those who initially intended to stay. This relationship persists after controlling for earnings and occupational downgrading and is confirmed using an instrumental-variable strategy. Our findings suggest that job content, beyond employment status and earnings, plays a central role in refugee integration and return decisions

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  • Piotr Lewandowski
  • Agata Gorny
  • Mateusz KrzakaÅ‚a
  • Marta Palczynska

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  • Piotr Lewandowski & Agata Gorny & Mateusz KrzakaÅ‚a & Marta Palczynska, 2025. "This paper studies how job task routinization shapes return intentions of Ukrainian war refugees in Poland following Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine in 2022. Using two waves of nationwide su," IBS Working Papers 01/2025, Instytut Badan Strukturalnych.
    • Handle: RePEc:ibt:wpaper:wp012025
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    Keywords

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    JEL classification:

    • J24 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demand and Supply of Labor - - - Human Capital; Skills; Occupational Choice; Labor Productivity
    • J61 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Mobility, Unemployment, Vacancies, and Immigrant Workers - - - Geographic Labor Mobility; Immigrant Workers
    • O15 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development - - - Economic Development: Human Resources; Human Development; Income Distribution; Migration

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