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Investment in Swedish Manufacturing: Analysis and Forecasts

Author

Listed:
  • Assarsson, Bengt

    () (Monetary Policy Department, Central Bank of Sweden)

  • Berg, Claes

    () (Monetary Policy Department, Central Bank of Sweden)

  • Jansson, Per

    (Monetary Policy Department, Central Bank of Sweden)

Abstract

This paper uses a neoclassical investment model extended with installation costs for capital, agency costs for investment financing, and the possibility of the firm being output constrained as a framework for an empirical analysis of investment behaviour in the Swedish manufacturing industry. The theory is implemented within a multivariate error-correction approach on data covering the time period 1951 to 1995, and we gain the following main results: (1) Tobin’s average Q is not the sole determinant of investment, neither in the short nor in the long run, and other variables like real output and capital gearing also affect investment activity; (2) the out-of-sample forecasts of the model track the evolution of actual investment growth quite impressively, especially at short- and medium-term horizons (1-2 years); (3) a relative equity-price variable is shown to constitute a good approximation of average Q, both for empirical modelling in general and forecasting in particular.

Suggested Citation

  • Assarsson, Bengt & Berg, Claes & Jansson, Per, 1999. "Investment in Swedish Manufacturing: Analysis and Forecasts," Working Paper Series 95, Sveriges Riksbank (Central Bank of Sweden).
  • Handle: RePEc:hhs:rbnkwp:0095
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    Cited by:

    1. Johan Eklund, 2010. "Q-theory of investment and earnings retentions—evidence from Scandinavia," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 39(3), pages 793-813, December.
    2. Bent Nielsen & Andrew Whitby, 2015. "A Joint Chow Test for Structural Instability," Econometrics, MDPI, Open Access Journal, vol. 3(1), pages 1-31, March.
    3. Bent Nielsen & Andrew Whitby, 2015. "A Joint Chow Test for Structural Instability," Econometrics, MDPI, Open Access Journal, vol. 3(1), pages 156, March.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Forecasting investment; Multivariate error-correction model; Neoclassical investment theory; Tobin's Q;

    JEL classification:

    • C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models
    • E22 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Investment; Capital; Intangible Capital; Capacity
    • E27 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications

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