Declining Trends In The Real Interest Rate And Inflation: The Role Of Aging
This paper explores a causal link between aging of the labor force and declining trends in the real interest rate and inflation in Japan. We develop a New Keynesian search/matching model that features heterogeneities in age and firm-specific skills. Using the model, we examine the long-run implications of the sharp drop in labor force entry in the 1970s. We show that the changes in the demographic structure induce significant low-frequency movements in per-capita consumption growth and the real interest rate. They also lead to similar movements in the inflation rate when the monetary policy follows the standard Taylor rule, failing to recognize the timevarying nature of the natural rate of interest. The model suggests that aging of the labor force accounts for roughly 40% of the declines in the real interest rate observed between the 1980s and 2000s in Japan.
|Date of creation:||07 Nov 2016|
|Contact details of provider:|| Postal: 10 Independence Mall, Philadelphia, PA 19106-1574|
Web page: http://www.philadelphiafed.org/
More information through EDIRC
|Order Information:|| Web: http://www.phil.frb.org/econ/wps/index.html Email: |
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Arnaud Chéron & Jean-Olivier Hairault & François Langot, 2013.
"Life-Cycle Equilibrium Unemployment,"
Journal of Labor Economics,
University of Chicago Press, vol. 31(4), pages 843-882.
- Chéron, Arnaud & Hairault, Jean-Olivier & Langot, François, 2008. "Life-Cycle Equilibrium Unemployment," IZA Discussion Papers 3396, Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA).
- Arnaud Chéron & Jean-Olivier Hairault & François Langot, 2013. "Life Cycle Equilibrium Unemployment," Université Paris1 Panthéon-Sorbonne (Post-Print and Working Papers) hal-00759471, HAL.
- Chéron, Arnaud & Hairault, Jean-Olivier & Langot, François, 2011. "Life Cycle Equilibrium Unemployment," CEPREMAP Working Papers (Docweb) 1103, CEPREMAP.
- Lin, Ching-Yang & Miyamoto, Hiroaki, 2012. "Gross worker flows and unemployment dynamics in Japan," Journal of the Japanese and International Economies, Elsevier, vol. 26(1), pages 44-61.
- Ching-Yang Lin & Hiroaki Miyamoto, 2010. "Gross Worker Flows and Unemployment Dynamics in Japan," Working Papers EMS_2010_07, Research Institute, International University of Japan.
- Miles, David, 1999. "Modelling the Impact of Demographic Change upon the Economy," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 109(452), pages 1-36, January.
- Miles, David K, 1997. "Modelling the Impact of Demographic Change Upon the Economy," CEPR Discussion Papers 1762, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- Orphanides, Athanasios, 2003. "The quest for prosperity without inflation," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 50(3), pages 633-663, April.
- Orphanides, Athanasios, 1999. "The Quest for Prosperity Without Inflation," Working Paper Series 93, Sveriges Riksbank (Central Bank of Sweden).
- Orphanides, Athanasios, 2000. "The quest for prosperity without inflation," Working Paper Series 0015, European Central Bank.
- James Bullard & Stefano Eusepi, 2005. "Did the Great Inflation Occur Despite Policymaker Commitment to a Taylor Rule?," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 8(2), pages 324-359, April.
- James Bullard & Stefano Eusepi, 2003. "Did the Great Inflation Occur Despite Policymaker Commitment to a Taylor Rule?," Computing in Economics and Finance 2003 129, Society for Computational Economics.
- James B. Bullard & Stefano Eusepi, 2004. "Did the Great Inflation occur despite policymaker commitment to a Taylor rule?," Working Papers 2003-013, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
- James B. Bullard & Stefano Eusepi, 2003. "Did the Great Inflation occur despite policymaker commitment to a Taylor rule?," FRB Atlanta Working Paper 2003-20, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta.
- Ríos-Rull José-Víctor, 2001. "Population Changes and Capital Accumulation: The Aging of the Baby Boom," The B.E. Journal of Macroeconomics, De Gruyter, vol. 1(1), pages 1-48, May.
- Jong-Won Yoon & Jinill Kim & Jungjin Lee, 2014. "Impact of Demographic Changes on Inflation and the Macroeconomy," IMF Working Papers 14/210, .
- Charles R. Bean, 2004. "Global demographic change : some implications for central banks : overview panel," Proceedings - Economic Policy Symposium - Jackson Hole, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, issue Aug, pages 447-454.
- Ikeda, Daisuke & Saito, Masashi, 2014. "The effects of demographic changes on the real interest rate in Japan," Japan and the World Economy, Elsevier, vol. 32(C), pages 37-48.
- Daisuke Ikeda & Masashi Saito, 2012. "The Effects of Demographic Changes on the Real Interest Rate in Japan," Bank of Japan Working Paper Series 12-E-3, Bank of Japan.
- Fujiwara, Ippei & Teranishi, Yuki, 2008. "A dynamic new Keynesian life-cycle model: Societal aging, demographics, and monetary policy," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 32(8), pages 2398-2427, August.
- Ippei Fujiwara & Yuki Teranishi, 2007. "A Dynamic New Keynesian Life-Cycle Model: Societal Ageing, Demographics and Monetary Policy," IMES Discussion Paper Series 07-E-04, Institute for Monetary and Economic Studies, Bank of Japan.
- Hideki Konishi & Kozo Ueda, 2013. "Aging and Deflation from a Fiscal Perspective," IMES Discussion Paper Series 13-E-13, Institute for Monetary and Economic Studies, Bank of Japan.
- Katagiri, Mitsuru & Konishi, Hideki & Ueda, Kozo, 2014. "Aging and deflation from a fiscal perspective," Globalization and Monetary Policy Institute Working Paper 218, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas.
- Mitsuru Katagiri & Hideki Konishi & Kozo Ueda, 2014. "Aging and Deflation from a Fiscal Perspective," Working Papers 1413, Waseda University, Faculty of Political Science and Economics.
- Mitsuru Katagiri & Hideki Konishi & Kozo Ueda, 2014. "Aging and Deflation from a Fiscal Perspective," KIER Working Papers 905, Kyoto University, Institute of Economic Research.
- Esteban-Pretel, Julen & Fujimoto, Junichi, 2012. "Life-cycle search, match quality and Japan’s labor market," Journal of the Japanese and International Economies, Elsevier, vol. 26(3), pages 326-350.
- Mitsuru Katagiri, 2012. "Economic Consequences of Population Aging in Japan: Effects through Changes in Demand Structure," IMES Discussion Paper Series 12-E-03, Institute for Monetary and Economic Studies, Bank of Japan.
- Rotemberg, Julio J, 1982. "Sticky Prices in the United States," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 90(6), pages 1187-1211, December.
- Mikael Juselius & Elod Takats, 2015. "Can demography affect inflation and monetary policy?," BIS Working Papers 485, Bank for International Settlements.
- Masaaki Shirakawa, 2012. "Demographic Changes and Macroeconomic Performance: Japanese Experiences," Monetary and Economic Studies, Institute for Monetary and Economic Studies, Bank of Japan, vol. 30, pages 19-38, November.
- Calvo, Guillermo A., 1983. "Staggered prices in a utility-maximizing framework," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 12(3), pages 383-398, September. Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:fip:fedpwp:16-29. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Beth Paul)
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.