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Securing Technological Leadership? The Cost of Export Controls on Firms

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Abstract

To safeguard its technological leadership, the U.S. has restricted domestic suppliers from exporting specific cutting-edge technologies to selected Chinese firms. Domestic firms affected by these export controls halt sales to Chinese customers, as intended, but struggle to establish new relations with alternative customers domestically or in politically aligned regions. As a result, domestic suppliers experience a $130 billion decline in market capitalization, along with reductions in profitability, employment, and bank lending. We also show how Chinese firms strategically respond to export controls. Overall, export controls impose significant costs on domestic firms producing the very technologies these policies intend to protect.

Suggested Citation

  • Matteo Crosignani & Lina Han & Marco Macchiavelli & André F. Silva, 2024. "Securing Technological Leadership? The Cost of Export Controls on Firms," Staff Reports 1096, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
    • Handle: RePEc:fip:fednsr:98127
    DOI: 10.59576/sr.1096
    Note: Revised February 2025. Previous title: “Geopolitical Risk and Decoupling: Evidence from U.S. Export Controls.”
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    Cited by:

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    2. Konstantin Egorov & Vasily Korovkin & Alexey Makarin & Dzhamilya Nigmatulina, 2025. "Trade sanctions," Economics Working Papers 1920, Department of Economics and Business, Universitat Pompeu Fabra.

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    Keywords

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    JEL classification:

    • F38 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - International Financial Policy: Financial Transactions Tax; Capital Controls
    • F51 - International Economics - - International Relations, National Security, and International Political Economy - - - International Conflicts; Negotiations; Sanctions
    • G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing; Trading Volume; Bond Interest Rates

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