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Reputation spillover across relationships: reviving reputation models of debt

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  • Harold L. Cole
  • Patrick J. Kehoe

Abstract

A traditional explanation for why sovereign governments repay debts is that they want to keep good reputations so they can easily borrow more. Bulow and Rogoff show that this argument is invalid under two conditions: (i) there is a single debt relationship, and (ii) regardless of their past actions, governments can earn the (possibly state-contingent) market rate of return by saving abroad. Bulow and Rogoff conjecture that, even under condition (ii), in more general reputation models with multiple relationships and spillover across them, reputation may support debt. This paper shows what is needed for this conjecture to be true.

Suggested Citation

  • Harold L. Cole & Patrick J. Kehoe, 1996. "Reputation spillover across relationships: reviving reputation models of debt," Staff Report 209, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis.
    • Handle: RePEc:fip:fedmsr:209
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Eaton, Jonathan & Fernandez, Raquel, 1995. "Sovereign debt," Handbook of International Economics, in: G. M. Grossman & K. Rogoff (ed.), Handbook of International Economics, edition 1, volume 3, chapter 3, pages 2031-2077, Elsevier.
    2. Cole, Harold L & Dow, James & English, William B, 1995. "Default, Settlement, and Signalling: Lending Resumption in a Reputational Model of Sovereign Debt," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 36(2), pages 365-385, May.
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    9. Harold L. Cole & Patrick J. Kehoe, 1996. "Reputation Spillover Across Relationships with Enduring and Transient Beliefs: Reviving reputation Models of Debt," NBER Working Papers 5486, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    10. Grossman, Herschel I & Van Huyck, John B, 1988. "Sovereign Debt as a Contingent Claim: Excusable Default, Repudiation, and Reputation," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 78(5), pages 1088-1097, December.
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    Cited by:

    1. Rong Qian & Carmen M. Reinhart & Kenneth S. Rogoff, 2011. "On Graduation from Default, Inflation and Banking Crises: Elusive or Illusion?," NBER Chapters, in: NBER Macroeconomics Annual 2010, volume 25, pages 1-36, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    2. Brian D. Wright & Kenneth M. Kletzer, 2000. "Sovereign Debt as Intertemporal Barter," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 90(3), pages 621-639, June.
    3. Karsten Jeske, 2006. "Private International Debt with Risk of Repudiation," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 114(3), pages 576-593, June.
    4. Seema Jayachandran & Michael Kremer, 2006. "Odious Debt," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 96(1), pages 82-92, March.
    5. Loren Brandt & Arthur Hosios, 2004. "Informal Credit in Village Economies: Contract Duration with Personal and Community Enforcement," Law and Economics 0410001, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    6. Guillermo Ordonez, 2005. "Don't Ask Why Things Went Wrong: Nested Reputation and Scapegoating Inefficiency," Levine's Working Paper Archive 618897000000000988, David K. Levine.
    7. Jeromin Zettelmeyer & Álvaro Leandro, 2018. "The Search for a Euro Area Safe Asset," Working Paper Series WP18-3, Peterson Institute for International Economics.
    8. Helmut Krämer-Eis, 1998. "Evaluierung hoheitlicher Länderrisiken," Working Paper Series B 1998-01, Friedrich Schiller University of Jena, School of of Economics and Business Administration.
    9. Michael Kremer & Paras Mehta, 2000. "Globalization and International Public Finance," NBER Working Papers 7575, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    10. Michael WESTPHALEN, 2002. "Valuation of Sovereign Debt with Strategic Defaulting and Rescheduling," FAME Research Paper Series rp43, International Center for Financial Asset Management and Engineering.
    11. Karsten Jeske, 2005. "Private international debt with risk of repudiation," FRB Atlanta Working Paper 2001-16, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta.
    12. Mr. Peter J Montiel & Mr. Samir Jahjah, 2003. "Exchange Rate Policy and Debt Crises in Emerging Economies," IMF Working Papers 2003/060, International Monetary Fund.
    13. della Paolera, Gerardo & Taylor, Alan M., 2013. "Sovereign debt in Latin America, 1820-1913," Revista de Historia Económica / Journal of Iberian and Latin American Economic History, Cambridge University Press, vol. 31(2), pages 173-217, September.
    14. De Broeck, Mark, 1997. "The financial structure of government debt in OECD countries: An examination of the time-consistency issue," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 39(2), pages 279-301, July.
    15. Guillermo Ordonez, 2008. "Essays on Learning and Macroeconomics," Levine's Working Paper Archive 122247000000002250, David K. Levine.
    16. Adrian Penalver, 2004. "How can the IMF catalyse private capital flows? A model," Bank of England working papers 215, Bank of England.
    17. Mark Aguiar, 2011. "Comment on "On Graduation from Default, Inflation and Banking Crises: Elusive or Illusion?"," NBER Chapters, in: NBER Macroeconomics Annual 2010, volume 25, pages 37-46, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    18. Pierre Jacquet & Jean-Michel Severino, 2004. "Prêter, donner : comment aider ?," Revue d'Économie Financière, Programme National Persée, vol. 74(1), pages 285-317.
    19. Araújo, Carlos Hamilton Vasconcelos, 2002. "Political risk, incentives and international credit market equilibrium," Brazilian Review of Econometrics, Sociedade Brasileira de Econometria - SBE, vol. 22(2), November.

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