Valuation of Sovereign Debt with Strategic Defaulting and Rescheduling
This paper provides a simple model of the rescheduling of debt following a sovereign default as a bond exchange. In case of default, the sovereign offers a new bond with lower coupon and principal.The debtors accept the offer if the value of the new bonds is higher than the proceedings of the litigation of the sovereign. Both the default decision of the sovereign as well as the exchange offer are modeled endogenously and in closed form. The resulting formulas for bond value and credit spreads are in closed form as well. The analysis yields credit spread curves similar to corporate credit curves: For high risk issuers, i.e.,sovereign with low country wealth relative to debt level,and high litigation costs,the credit spread curves are “hump ”-shaped. Better quality issues exhibit increasing credit spread curves. The numerical analysis with reasonable parameters yields credit spreads of a size compatible to market spreads. A comparison to corporate debt supports the stylized fact that, using the same parameters,corporate debt is less risky than sovereign debt since the threat of liquidation is stronger than the threat of litigation.
|Date of creation:||Feb 2002|
|Date of revision:|
|Contact details of provider:|| Postal: |
Phone: 41 22 / 312 09 61
Fax: 41 22 / 312 10 26
Web page: http://www.swissfinanceinstitute.ch
More information through EDIRC
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Hayri, Aydin, 1997.
CEPR Discussion Papers
1701, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- Hayri, A., 1996. "Debt Relief," The Warwick Economics Research Paper Series (TWERPS) 459, University of Warwick, Department of Economics.
- Grossman, Herschel I & Van Huyck, John B, 1988.
"Sovereign Debt as a Contingent Claim: Excusable Default, Repudiation, and Reputation,"
American Economic Review,
American Economic Association, vol. 78(5), pages 1088-97, December.
- Herschel I. Grossman & John B. Van Huyck, 1985. "Sovereign Debt as a Contingent Claim: Excusable Default, Repudiation, and Reputation," NBER Working Papers 1673, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Bac, Mehmet, 1995. "On the Term Structure of Sovereign-Debt Contracts," Review of International Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 3(2), pages 174-85, June.
- Bulow, Jeremy & Rogoff, Kenneth, 1989.
"A Constant Recontracting Model of Sovereign Debt,"
Journal of Political Economy,
University of Chicago Press, vol. 97(1), pages 155-78, February.
- Bulow, Jeremy & Rogoff, Kenneth S., 1989. "A Constant Recontracting Model of Sovereign Debt," Scholarly Articles 12491028, Harvard University Department of Economics.
- Jeremy A.Rogoff Bulow & Kenneth, 1986. "A Constant Recontracting Model of Sovereign Debt," University of Chicago - George G. Stigler Center for Study of Economy and State 43, Chicago - Center for Study of Economy and State.
- Jeremy I. Bulow & Kenneth Rogoff, 1987. "A Constant Recontracting Model of Sovereign Debt," NBER Working Papers 2088, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Kulatilaka, Nalin & Marcus, Alan J., 1987. "A model of strategic default of sovereign debt," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 11(4), pages 483-498, December.
- Eaton, Jonathan, 1993.
"Sovereign Debt: A Primer,"
World Bank Economic Review,
World Bank Group, vol. 7(2), pages 137-72, May.
- Jonathan Eaton, 1991. "Sovereign Debt: A Primer," Boston University - Institute for Economic Development 21, Boston University, Institute for Economic Development.
- Eaton, Jonathan, 1992. "Sovereign debt : a primer," Policy Research Working Paper Series 855, The World Bank.
- Atkeson, Andrew, 1991.
"International Lending with Moral Hazard and Risk of Repudiation,"
Econometric Society, vol. 59(4), pages 1069-89, July.
- Andrew Atkeson, 2010. "International lending with moral hazard and risk of repudiation," Levine's Working Paper Archive 200, David K. Levine.
- Duffie, Darrell & Singleton, Kenneth J, 1999. "Modeling Term Structures of Defaultable Bonds," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 12(4), pages 687-720.
- Pierre Mella-Barral & William R M Perraudin, 1993.
"Strategic Debt Service,"
CEPR Financial Markets Paper
0039, European Science Foundation Network in Financial Markets, c/o C.E.P.R, 77 Bastwick Street, London EC1V 3PZ..
- Boot, Arnoud W A & Kanatas, George, 1995. "Rescheduling of Sovereign Debt: Forgiveness, Precommitment, and New Money," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 27(2), pages 363-77, May.
- Leland, Hayne E & Toft, Klaus Bjerre, 1996.
" Optimal Capital Structure, Endogenous Bankruptcy, and the Term Structure of Credit Spreads,"
Journal of Finance,
American Finance Association, vol. 51(3), pages 987-1019, July.
- Hayne E. Leland and Klaus Bjerre Toft., 1995. "Optimal Capital Structure, Endogenous Bankruptcy, and the Term Structure of Credit Spreads," Research Program in Finance Working Papers RPF-259, University of California at Berkeley.
- Sebastian Edwards, 1983. "LDC's Foreign Borrowing and Default Risk: An Empirical Investigation," NBER Working Papers 1172, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Anderson, Ronald W & Sundaresan, Suresh, 1996. "Design and Valuation of Debt Contracts," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 9(1), pages 37-68.
- Edwards, Sebastian, 1984. "LDC Foreign Borrowing and Default Risk: An Empirical Investigation, 1976-80," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 74(4), pages 726-34, September.
- Eaton, Jonathan & Gersovitz, Mark, 1981. "Debt with Potential Repudiation: Theoretical and Empirical Analysis," Review of Economic Studies, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 48(2), pages 289-309, April.
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:fam:rpseri:rp43. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Marilyn Barja)
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.