IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/
MyIDEAS: Login to save this paper or follow this series

How can the IMF catalyse private capital flows? A model

  • Adrian Penalver
Registered author(s):

    This paper presents a model to explain how IMF programmes can catalyse private capital flows following a financial crisis, a concept that was at the heart of the IMF's strategy for dealing with capital account crises in the late 1990s. In the model, the IMF lends funds below the prevailing market interest rate and it is this subsidy that induces the borrowing country to exert adjustment effort to avoid default. By preventing default, future marginal rates of return on investment are kept high, thereby encouraging private capital flows. The IMF may also have a signalling role if it has superior information about debtor type and can affect the interest rate charged in the immediate aftermath of a crisis. In practice, however, IMF programmes based on the catalytic approach have been disappointing and actual private capital flows have been considerably below those projected. Therefore, the paper also considers how capital flows derived from the model are sensitive to the assumptions made. The paper concludes by discussing the policy implications of the analysis for IMF programme design.

    If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.

    File URL: http://www.bankofengland.co.uk/research/Documents/workingpapers/2004/WP215.pdf
    Download Restriction: no

    Paper provided by Bank of England in its series Bank of England working papers with number 215.

    as
    in new window

    Length:
    Date of creation: Apr 2004
    Date of revision:
    Handle: RePEc:boe:boeewp:215
    Contact details of provider: Postal:
    Bank of England, Threadneedle Street, London, EC2R 8AH

    Phone: +44 (0)171 601 4030
    Fax: +44 (0)171 601 5196
    Web page: http://www.bankofengland.co.uk/
    Email:


    More information through EDIRC

    References listed on IDEAS
    Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:

    as in new window
    1. Marcus Miller & Lei Zhang, 1999. "Sovereign Liquidity Crisis: The Strategic Case for a Payments Standstill," CSGR Working papers series 35/99, Centre for the Study of Globalisation and Regionalisation (CSGR), University of Warwick.
    2. Graham Bird & Dane Rowlands, 2002. "Do IMF Programmes Have a Catalytic Effect on Other International Capital Flows?," Oxford Development Studies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 30(3), pages 229-249.
    3. Obstfeld, Maurice, 1996. "Models of Currency Crises with Self-fulfilling Features," CEPR Discussion Papers 1315, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    4. Graham Bird & Dane Rowlands, 1997. "The Catalytic Effect of Lending by the International Financial Institutions," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 20(7), pages 967-991, November.
    5. Rodrik, Dani, 1995. "Why is there Multilateral Lending?," CEPR Discussion Papers 1207, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    6. Stephen Morris & Hyun Song Shin, 2004. "Catalytic Finance: When Does It Work?," Yale School of Management Working Papers ysm339, Yale School of Management.
    7. Hyun Song Shin & Prasanna Gai & Simon Hayes, 2001. "Crisis costs and debtor discipline: the efficacy of public policy in sovereign debt crises," FMG Discussion Papers dp390, Financial Markets Group.
    8. J. Zettelmeyer, 2000. "Can Official Crisis Lending be Counterproductive in the Short Run?," Economic Notes, Banca Monte dei Paschi di Siena SpA, vol. 29(1), pages 13-29, 02.
    9. Chui, Michael & Gai, Prasanna & Haldane, Andrew G., 2002. "Sovereign liquidity crises: Analytics and implications for public policy," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 26(2-3), pages 519-546, March.
    10. Jeffrey D. Sachs, 1989. "Conditionality, Debt Relief, and the Developing Country Debt Crisis," NBER Chapters, in: Developing Country Debt and Economic Performance, Volume 1: The International Financial System, pages 255-296 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    11. Roberto Chang & Andres Velasco, 1998. "Financial Crises in Emerging Markets," NBER Working Papers 6606, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    12. Marchesi, Silvia & Thomas, Jonathan P, 1999. "IMF Conditionality as a Screening Device," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 109(454), pages C111-25, March.
    13. Andrew G Haldane & Gregor Irwin & Victoria Saporta, 2004. "Bail out or work out? theoretical considerations," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 114(494), pages C130-C148, 03.
    14. Ales Bulir & Marianne Schulze-Gattas & Atish R. Ghosh & Alex Mourmouras & A. Javier Hamann & Timothy D. Lane, 2002. "IMF-Supported Programs in Capital Account Crises; Design and Experience," IMF Occasional Papers 210, International Monetary Fund.
    15. Giulio Federico, 2001. "IMF Conditionality," Economics Papers 2001-W19, Economics Group, Nuffield College, University of Oxford, revised 01 Sep 2001.
    16. Jeffrey D. Sachs, 1989. "Conditionality, Debt Relief, and the Developing Country Debt Crisis," NBER Chapters, in: Developing Country Debt and the World Economy, pages 275-284 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    17. Curzio Giannini & Carlo Cottarelli, 2002. "Bedfellows, Hostages, or Perfect Strangers? Global Capital Markets and the Catalytic Effect of IMF Crisis Lending," IMF Working Papers 02/193, International Monetary Fund.
    18. Harold L. Cole & Patrick J. Kehoe, 1996. "Reputation spillover across relationships: reviving reputation models of debt," Staff Report 209, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis.
    19. Michael P. Dooley, 2000. "Can Output Losses Following International Financial Crises be Avoided?," NBER Working Papers 7531, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    20. Stanley Fischer, 1999. "On the Need for an International Lender of Last Resort," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 13(4), pages 85-104, Fall.
    21. Olivier Jeanne & Jeromin Zettelmeyer, 2001. "International bailouts, moral hazard and conditionality," Economic Policy, CEPR;CES;MSH, vol. 16(33), pages 407-432, October.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    This item is not listed on Wikipedia, on a reading list or among the top items on IDEAS.

    When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:boe:boeewp:215. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Digital Media Team)

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.

    If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    This information is provided to you by IDEAS at the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis using RePEc data.