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How can the IMF catalyse private capital flows? A model


  • Adrian Penalver


This paper presents a model to explain how IMF programmes can catalyse private capital flows following a financial crisis, a concept that was at the heart of the IMF's strategy for dealing with capital account crises in the late 1990s. In the model, the IMF lends funds below the prevailing market interest rate and it is this subsidy that induces the borrowing country to exert adjustment effort to avoid default. By preventing default, future marginal rates of return on investment are kept high, thereby encouraging private capital flows. The IMF may also have a signalling role if it has superior information about debtor type and can affect the interest rate charged in the immediate aftermath of a crisis. In practice, however, IMF programmes based on the catalytic approach have been disappointing and actual private capital flows have been considerably below those projected. Therefore, the paper also considers how capital flows derived from the model are sensitive to the assumptions made. The paper concludes by discussing the policy implications of the analysis for IMF programme design.

Suggested Citation

  • Adrian Penalver, 2004. "How can the IMF catalyse private capital flows? A model," Bank of England working papers 215, Bank of England.
  • Handle: RePEc:boe:boeewp:215

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    Cited by:

    1. Eichengreen, Barry & Kletzer, Kenneth & Mody, Ashoka, 2006. "The IMF in a world of private capital markets," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 30(5), pages 1335-1357, May.
    2. Spiros Bougheas & Indraneel Dasgupta & Oliver Morrissey, 2011. "Repayment versus Investment Conditions and Exclusivity in Lending Contracts," Journal of Institutional and Theoretical Economics (JITE), Mohr Siebeck, Tübingen, vol. 167(2), pages 247-265, June.
    3. Saravia, Diego, 2010. "On the role and effects of IMF seniority," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 29(6), pages 1024-1044, October.
    4. Uma Ramakrishnan & Juan Zalduendo, 2006. "The Role of IMF Support in Crisis Prevention," IMF Working Papers 06/75, International Monetary Fund.
    5. Francesca Viani, 2005. "International Monetary Fund Resources and Contagion Mechanisms: A Hypothesis," Rivista di Politica Economica, SIPI Spa, vol. 95(6), pages 69-103, November-.
    6. Jeanne, Olivier & Ostry, Jonathan D & Zettelmeyer, Jeromin, 2008. "A Theory of International Crisis Lending and IMF Conditionality," CEPR Discussion Papers 7022, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    7. Graham Bird & Dane Rowlands, 2007. "The Analysis of Catalysis: IMF Programs and Private Capital Flows," School of Economics Discussion Papers 0107, School of Economics, University of Surrey.
    8. Jun I Kim, 2006. "IMF-Supported Programs and Crisis Prevention; An Analytical Framework," IMF Working Papers 06/156, International Monetary Fund.
    9. J. Brandes & Tobias Schüle, 2008. "IMF’s assistance: Devil’s kiss or guardian angel?," Journal of Economics, Springer, vol. 94(1), pages 63-86, June.

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