This paper presents a principal-agent model of IMF conditional lending, in the aftermath of a "capital-account" liquidity crisis. We show that traditional ex-post conditonality can be effective in safeguarding the Fund's resources, allowing for the provision of efficient emergency lending and reducing inefficient ex-ante credit rationing if the capital outflow which triggers the crisis is not excessive. We apply the baseline model to analyse the issues of debtor moral hazard and private sector involement (PSI), which have characterised the recent debate on reforming the International Financial Architecture. We show that debtor moral hazard is only a concern if the IMF cannot commit to make the post-crisis participation constraint of the debtor country binding, and that it can only be resolved via ex-ante conditionality (or pre-qualification). Attempts to reduce debtor moral hazard may however compromise the Fund's ability to safeguard its resources ex-post. We also show that PSI in the solution of balance of payments crisis is a central determinant of the effectiveness of both crisis prevention and resolution efforts on the part of the IMF. PSI may be an enabling condition for efficient crisis resolution, and may therefore be imposed even by a "PSI-averse" IMF. Moreover, there are conditions under which it is optimal for the IMF to ex-ante precommit to a tough, and ex-post sup-optimal, PSI policy,in order to mitigate investor moral hazard.
|Date of creation:||01 Feb 2001|
|Date of revision:||01 Sep 2001|
|Contact details of provider:|| Web page: https://www.nuffield.ox.ac.uk/economics/|
References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Eaton, Jonathan & Fernandez, Raquel, 1995.
Handbook of International Economics,
in: G. M. Grossman & K. Rogoff (ed.), Handbook of International Economics, edition 1, volume 3, chapter 3, pages 2031-2077
- Eaton, J. & Fernandez, R., 1995. "Sovereign Debt," Papers 37, Boston University - Department of Economics.
- Jonathan Eaton & Raquel Fernandez, 1995. "Sovereign Debt," Boston University - Institute for Economic Development 59, Boston University, Institute for Economic Development.
- Jonathan Eaton & Raquel Fernandez, 1995. "Sovereign Debt," NBER Working Papers 5131, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Jeffrey D. Sachs, 1989. "Conditionality, Debt Relief, and the Developing Country Debt Crisis," NBER Chapters, in: Developing Country Debt and Economic Performance, Volume 1: The International Financial System, pages 255-296 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Louis Dicks-Mireaux & Miguel A Savastano & Adam Bennett & MarÃa Vicenta Carkovic S. & Mauro Mecagni & James A John & Susan M Schadler, 1995. "IMF Conditionality; Experience Under Stand-by and Extended Arrangements, Part I: Key Issues and Findings," IMF Occasional Papers 128, International Monetary Fund.
- Michael P. Dooley, 1998.
"A model of crises in emerging markets,"
International Finance Discussion Papers
630, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
- Stanley Fischer, 1999. "On the Need for an International Lender of Last Resort," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 13(4), pages 85-104, Fall.
- Boughton, James M, 2000. "From Suez to Tequila: The IMF as Crisis Manager," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 110(460), pages 273-291, January.
- Roberto Chang & Andrés Velasco, 1999.
"Liquidity Crises in Emerging Markets: Theory and Policy,"
Documentos de Trabajo
59, Centro de Economía Aplicada, Universidad de Chile.
- Roberto Chang & Andrés Velasco, 2000. "Liquidity Crises in Emerging Markets: Theory and Policy," NBER Chapters, in: NBER Macroeconomics Annual 1999, Volume 14, pages 11-78 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Roberto Chang & Andres Velasco, 1999. "Liquidity Crises in Emerging Markets: Theory and Policy," NBER Working Papers 7272, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Chang, R. & Velasco, A., 1999. "Liquidity Crises in Emerging Markets: Theory and Policy," Working Papers 99-14, C.V. Starr Center for Applied Economics, New York University.
- Roberto Chang & Andres Velasco, 1999. "Liquidity crises in emerging markets: Theory and policy," FRB Atlanta Working Paper 99-15, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta.
- Krugman, Paul, 1979. "A Model of Balance-of-Payments Crises," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 11(3), pages 311-325, August.
- Marcel Fafchamps, "undated".
"Sovereign Debt, Structural Adjustment and Conditionality,"
96015, Stanford University, Department of Economics.
- Fafchamps, Marcel, 1996. "Sovereign debt, structural adjustment, and conditionality," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 50(2), pages 313-335, August.
- Krugman, Paul, 1988.
"Financing vs. forgiving a debt overhang,"
Journal of Development Economics,
Elsevier, vol. 29(3), pages 253-268, November.
- Giancarlo Corsetti & Paolo Pesenti & Nouriel Roubini, 1998.
"Paper tigers? A model of the Asian crisis,"
9822, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
- Jeffrey D. Sachs, 1989. "Conditionality, Debt Relief, and the Developing Country Debt Crisis," NBER Chapters, in: Developing Country Debt and the World Economy, pages 275-284 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Jeanne, Olivier, 2000. "Foreign currency debt and the global financial architecture," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 44(4-6), pages 719-727, May.
- Claessens, Stijn & Diwan, Ishac, 1990. "Investment Incentives: New Money, Debt Relief, and the Critical Role of Conditionality in the Debt Crisis," World Bank Economic Review, World Bank Group, vol. 4(1), pages 21-41, January.
- Marchesi, Silvia & Thomas, Jonathan P, 1999. "IMF Conditionality as a Screening Device," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 109(454), pages 111-125, March.
- Collier, Paul & Guillaumont, Patrick & Guillaumont, Sylviane & Gunning, Jan Willem, 1997. "Redesigning conditionality," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 25(9), pages 1399-1407, September.
- John Williamson, 2000. "The Role of the IMF: A Guide to the Reports," Policy Briefs PB00-5, Peterson Institute for International Economics.
- Diwan, I. & Rodrik, D., 1992. "External Debt, Adjustment, and Burden Sharing: A Unified Framework," Princeton Studies in International Economics 73, International Economics Section, Departement of Economics Princeton University,.
- Steven T Phillips & Timothy D. Lane, 2000. "Does IMF Financing Result in Moral Hazard?," IMF Working Papers 00/168, International Monetary Fund.
- Morris Goldstein, 2000. "Strengthening the International Financial Architecture: Where Do We Stand?," Working Paper Series WP00-8, Peterson Institute for International Economics.
- Steven Radelet & Jeffrey D. Sachs, 1998. "The East Asian Financial Crisis: Diagnosis, Remedies, Prospects," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 29(1), pages 1-90.
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:nuf:econwp:0119. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Maxine Collett)
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.