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U.S. commercial bank lending through 2008:Q4: new evidence from gross credit flows

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  • Silvio Contessi
  • Johanna L. Francis

Abstract

How have U.S. commercial banks responded during the current financial crisis? What was hiding behind the dynamics of aggregate commercial bank loans through the end of 2008? We use balance sheet data for the entire population of commercial banks to construct quarterly gross credit flows (credit expansion and credit contraction series) for the U.S. banking system during the period 1999:Q1-2008:Q4 and provide new evidence on changes in lending. We show that credit expansion, as defined in this paper, began declining during the first half of 2008 while credit contraction began steeply increasing only between the third and fourth quarters of 2008. Until then net credit growth was below trend but positive and not dissimilar to the 1980 and 2001 recessions. However, between the third and fourth quarter credit contraction grew larger than credit expansion across all types of loans (real estate, individual, commercial, and industrial loans) and for the largest banks. On the contrary, smaller banks continued to display positive net credit growth. Once we include 2008:Q4 data, the cyclical properties of our series most resemble the beginning of the 1991 recession and the intensification of the Savings and Loan crisis.

Suggested Citation

  • Silvio Contessi & Johanna L. Francis, 2009. "U.S. commercial bank lending through 2008:Q4: new evidence from gross credit flows," Working Papers 2009-011, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
  • Handle: RePEc:fip:fedlwp:2009-011
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    8. Ethan Cohen-Cole & Burcu Duygan-Bump & José Fillat & Judit Montoriol-Garriga, 2008. "Looking behind the aggregates: a reply to “Facts and Myths about the Financial Crisis of 2008”," Risk and Policy Analysis Unit Working Paper QAU08-5, Federal Reserve Bank of Boston.
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Silvio Contessi & Johanna L. Francis, 2011. "TARP beneficiaries and their lending patterns during the financial crisis," Review, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, issue Mar, pages 105-126.
    2. Bank for International Settlements, 2009. "An assessment of financial sector rescue programmes," BIS Papers, Bank for International Settlements, number 48, february.
    3. Gern, Klaus-Jürgen & Jannsen, Nils, 2009. "Do we face a credit crunch?," Open Access Publications from Kiel Institute for the World Economy 32839, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW).
    4. David Florian Hoyle & Johanna L. Francis, 2016. "Unemployment and Gross Credit Flows in a New Keynesian Framework," Working Papers 2016-87, Peruvian Economic Association.
    5. Andrea F. Presbitero & Gregory F. Udell & Alberto Zazzaro, 2014. "The Home Bias and the Credit Crunch: A Regional Perspective," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 46(s1), pages 53-85, February.
    6. Florian, David & Francis, Johanna L., 2016. "Unemployment and Gross Credit Flows in a New Keynesian Framework," Working Papers 2016-007, Banco Central de Reserva del Perú.
    7. Silvio Contessi & Li Li & Katheryn N. Russ, 2013. "Bank vs. bond financing over the business cycle," Economic Synopses, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
    8. Gern, Klaus-Jürgen & Jannsen, Nils, 2009. "Do we face a credit crunch?," Open Access Publications from Kiel Institute for the World Economy 32979, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW).
    9. Boysen-Hogrefe, Jens & Gern, Klaus-Jürgen & Jannsen, Nils & Scheide, Joachim, 2009. "Weltwirtschaft expandiert wieder," Open Access Publications from Kiel Institute for the World Economy 32956, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW).
    10. Giuseppe CICCARONE & Francesco GIULI & Danilo LIBERATI, "undated". "Gross and net loan flows under search and matching frictions in labour and credit markets," EcoMod2010 259600040, EcoMod.
    11. Gern, Klaus-Jürgen & Jannsen, Nils, 2009. "Do we face a credit crunch?," Kiel Policy Brief 15, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW).

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Financial crises ; Business cycles ; Credit;

    JEL classification:

    • E44 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy
    • E51 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Money Supply; Credit; Money Multipliers
    • G21 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Banks; Other Depository Institutions; Micro Finance Institutions; Mortgages

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