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Inflation and financial market performance: what have we learned in the last ten years

  • John H. Boyd
  • Bruce A. Champ

The last decade has witnessed a great deal of theoretical and empirical research on the relationships between inflation, financial market performance, and economic growth. This paper provides a survey of that literature and presents new cross-country empirical results on this topic. We find that inflation is negatively associated with banking industry size, real returns on financial assets, and bank profitability. We also discover a positive relationship between asset return volatility and inflation.

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Paper provided by Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland in its series Working Paper with number 0317.

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Date of creation: 2003
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Handle: RePEc:fip:fedcwp:0317
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  1. John H. Boyd & Sangmok Choi & Bruce D. Smith, 1995. "Inflation, financial markets, and capital formation," Working Papers 556, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis.
  2. Levine, Ross & Renelt, David, 1992. "A Sensitivity Analysis of Cross-Country Growth Regressions," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 82(4), pages 942-63, September.
  3. Douglas W. Diamond & Philip H. Dybvig, 2000. "Bank runs, deposit insurance, and liquidity," Quarterly Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis, issue Win, pages 14-23.
  4. Levine, Ross & Loayza, Norman & Beck, Thorsten, 1999. "Financial intermediation and growth : Causality and causes," Policy Research Working Paper Series 2059, The World Bank.
  5. King, Robert G. & Levine, Ross, 1993. "Finance and growth : Schumpeter might be right," Policy Research Working Paper Series 1083, The World Bank.
  6. Bencivenga, V.R. & Smith, B.D., 1988. "Financial Intermediation And Endogenous Growth," RCER Working Papers 124, University of Rochester - Center for Economic Research (RCER).
  7. Reinhart, Carmen & Kaminsky, Graciela, 1999. "The twin crises: The causes of banking and balance of payments problems," MPRA Paper 14081, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  8. Bruce D. Smith, 2002. "Monetary Policy, Banking Crises, and the Friedman Rule," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 92(2), pages 128-134, May.
  9. Beck, Thorsten & Demirguc-Kunt, Asli & Levine, Ross, 2003. "Bank supervision and corporate finance," Policy Research Working Paper Series 3042, The World Bank.
  10. Stacey L. Schreft & Bruce D. Smith, 1994. "Money, banking, and capital formation," Working Paper 94-05, Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond.
  11. Ali Kutan & Tansu Aksoy, 2003. "Public Information Arrival and the Fisher Effect in Emerging Markets: Evidence from Stock and Bond Markets in Turkey," Journal of Financial Services Research, Springer;Western Finance Association, vol. 23(3), pages 225-239, June.
  12. Asli Demirguc-Kunt & Enrica Detragiache, 2000. "Does Deposit Insurance Increase Banking System Stability? An Empirical Investigation," Econometric Society World Congress 2000 Contributed Papers 1751, Econometric Society.
  13. John H. Boyd & Ross Levine & Bruce D. Smith, 1996. "Inflation and financial market performance," Working Paper 9617, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland.
  14. Champ, B. & Snith, B.D. & Williamson, D.S., 1991. "Currency Elasticity and Banking Panics: Theory and Evidence," RCER Working Papers 292, University of Rochester - Center for Economic Research (RCER).
  15. John H. Boyd & Pedro Gomis-Porqueras & Sungkyu Kwak & Bruce David Smith, 2014. "A User's Guide to Banking Crises," Annals of Economics and Finance, Society for AEF, vol. 15(2), pages 800-892, November.
  16. Carlstrom, Charles T & Fuerst, Timothy S, 1997. "Agency Costs, Net Worth, and Business Fluctuations: A Computable General Equilibrium Analysis," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 87(5), pages 893-910, December.
  17. Honohan, Patrick, 2003. "Avoiding the pitfalls in taxing financial intermediation," Policy Research Working Paper Series 3056, The World Bank.
  18. King, Robert G. & Levine, Ross, 1993. "Finance, entrepreneurship and growth: Theory and evidence," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 32(3), pages 513-542, December.
  19. Chari, V. V. & Christiano, Lawrence J. & Kehoe, Patrick J., 1996. "Optimality of the Friedman rule in economies with distorting taxes," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 37(2-3), pages 203-223, April.
  20. Levine, Ross, 1992. "Financial structures and economic development," Policy Research Working Paper Series 849, The World Bank.
  21. Bullard, James & Keating, John W., 1995. "The long-run relationship between inflation and output in postwar economies," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 36(3), pages 477-496, December.
  22. Beck, Thorsten & Demirguc-Kunt, Asli & Maksimovic, Vojislav, 2002. "Financial and legal constraints to firm growth - Does size matter?," Policy Research Working Paper Series 2784, The World Bank.
  23. Stephen D. Williamson, 1984. "Costly Monitoring, Financial Intermediation, and Equilibrium Credit Rationing," Working Papers 583, Queen's University, Department of Economics.
  24. Robert J. Barro, 1995. "Inflation and Economic Growth," NBER Working Papers 5326, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  25. Bruce D. Smith, 2003. "Taking intermediation seriously," Proceedings, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland, pages 1319-1377.
  26. Barnes, Michelle & Boyd, John H. & Smith, Bruce D., 1999. "Inflation and asset returns," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 43(4-6), pages 737-754, April.
  27. Asli Demirgüç-Kunt & Enrica Detragiache, 1998. "The Determinants of Banking Crises in Developing and Developed Countries," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 45(1), pages 81-109, March.
  28. Bernanke, Ben & Gertler, Mark, 1989. "Agency Costs, Net Worth, and Business Fluctuations," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 79(1), pages 14-31, March.
  29. Timothy S. Fuerst & Charles T. Carlstrom, 1998. "Agency costs and business cycles," Economic Theory, Springer;Society for the Advancement of Economic Theory (SAET), vol. 12(3), pages 583-597.
  30. G. William Schwert, 1988. "Why Does Stock Market Volatility Change Over Time?," NBER Working Papers 2798, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  31. Choudhry, Taufiq, 2001. "Inflation and rates of return on stocks: evidence from high inflation countries," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 11(1), pages 75-96, March.
  32. Williamson, Stephen D, 1987. "Financial Intermediation, Business Failures, and Real Business Cycles," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 95(6), pages 1196-1216, December.
  33. Azariadis, Costas & Smith, Bruce, 1998. "Financial Intermediation and Regime Switching in Business Cycles," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 88(3), pages 516-36, June.
  34. Michelle L. Barnes & Anthony W. Hughes, 2002. "A quantile regression analysis of the cross section of stock market returns," Working Papers 02-2, Federal Reserve Bank of Boston.
  35. Azariadis, Costas & Smith, Bruce D, 1996. "Private Information, Money, and Growth: Indeterminacy, Fluctuations, and the Mundell-Tobin Effect," Journal of Economic Growth, Springer, vol. 1(3), pages 309-32, September.
  36. Valerie R. Bencivenga & Bruce D. Smith, 2003. "Monetary policy and financial market evolution," Review, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, issue Jul, pages 7-26.
  37. Boyd, John H. & Smith, Bruce D., 1997. "Capital Market Imperfections, International Credit Markets, and Nonconvergence," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 73(2), pages 335-364, April.
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