IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/fip/fedcwp/0317.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Inflation and financial market performance: what have we learned in the last ten years?

Author

Listed:
  • John H. Boyd
  • Bruce A. Champ

Abstract

The last decade has witnessed a great deal of theoretical and empirical research on the relationships between inflation, financial market performance, and economic growth. This paper provides a survey of that literature and presents new cross-country empirical results on this topic. We find that inflation is negatively associated with banking industry size, real returns on financial assets, and bank profitability. We also discover a positive relationship between asset return volatility and inflation.

Suggested Citation

  • John H. Boyd & Bruce A. Champ, 2003. "Inflation and financial market performance: what have we learned in the last ten years?," Working Papers (Old Series) 0317, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland.
    • Handle: RePEc:fip:fedcwp:0317
    DOI: 10.26509/frbc-wp-200317
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://doi.org/10.26509/frbc-wp-200317
    File Function: Persistent link
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://www.clevelandfed.org/-/media/project/clevelandfedtenant/clevelandfedsite/publications/working-papers/2003/wp-0317-inflation-and-financial-pdf.pdf
    File Function: Full text
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.26509/frbc-wp-200317?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Robert J. Barro, 2013. "Inflation and Economic Growth," Annals of Economics and Finance, Society for AEF, vol. 14(1), pages 121-144, May.
    2. Ross Levine, 1990. "Financial structure and economic development," International Finance Discussion Papers 381, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    3. Chari, V. V. & Christiano, Lawrence J. & Kehoe, Patrick J., 1996. "Optimality of the Friedman rule in economies with distorting taxes," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 37(2-3), pages 203-223, April.
    4. Beck, Thorsten & Demirguc-Kunt, Asli & Levine, Ross, 2003. "Bank supervision and corporate finance," Policy Research Working Paper Series 3042, The World Bank.
    5. Levine, Ross & Zervos, Sara, 1998. "Stock Markets, Banks, and Economic Growth," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 88(3), pages 537-558, June.
    6. Douglas W. Diamond & Philip H. Dybvig, 2000. "Bank runs, deposit insurance, and liquidity," Quarterly Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis, vol. 24(Win), pages 14-23.
    7. Williamson, Stephen D, 1987. "Financial Intermediation, Business Failures, and Real Business Cycles," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 95(6), pages 1196-1216, December.
    8. Carmen M. Reinhart & Graciela L. Kaminsky, 1999. "The Twin Crises: The Causes of Banking and Balance-of-Payments Problems," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 89(3), pages 473-500, June.
    9. Carlstrom, Charles T & Fuerst, Timothy S, 1997. "Agency Costs, Net Worth, and Business Fluctuations: A Computable General Equilibrium Analysis," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 87(5), pages 893-910, December.
    10. Demirguc-Kunt, Asli & Detragiache, Enrica, 2002. "Does deposit insurance increase banking system stability? An empirical investigation," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 49(7), pages 1373-1406, October.
    11. Boyd, John H. & Smith, Bruce D., 1997. "Capital Market Imperfections, International Credit Markets, and Nonconvergence," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 73(2), pages 335-364, April.
    12. Levine, Ross & Renelt, David, 1992. "A Sensitivity Analysis of Cross-Country Growth Regressions," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 82(4), pages 942-963, September.
    13. Bruce D. Smith & John H. Boyd, 1998. "Capital market imperfections in a monetary growth model," Economic Theory, Springer;Society for the Advancement of Economic Theory (SAET), vol. 11(2), pages 241-273.
    14. Bernanke, Ben & Gertler, Mark, 1989. "Agency Costs, Net Worth, and Business Fluctuations," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 79(1), pages 14-31, March.
    15. repec:bla:jfinan:v:44:y:1989:i:5:p:1115-53 is not listed on IDEAS
    16. Bruce Champ & Bruce D. Smith & Stephen D. Williamson, 1996. "Currency Elasticity and Banking Panics: Theory and Evidence," Canadian Journal of Economics, Canadian Economics Association, vol. 29(4), pages 828-864, November.
    17. Williamson, Stephen D., 1986. "Costly monitoring, financial intermediation, and equilibrium credit rationing," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 18(2), pages 159-179, September.
    18. Robert G. King & Ross Levine, 1993. "Finance and Growth: Schumpeter Might Be Right," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 108(3), pages 717-737.
    19. Ross Levine & Norman Loayza & Thorsten Beck, 2002. "Financial Intermediation and Growth: Causality and Causes," Central Banking, Analysis, and Economic Policies Book Series, in: Leonardo Hernández & Klaus Schmidt-Hebbel & Norman Loayza (Series Editor) & Klaus Schmidt-Hebbel (Se (ed.),Banking, Financial Integration, and International Crises, edition 1, volume 3, chapter 2, pages 031-084, Central Bank of Chile.
    20. Valerie R. Bencivenga & Bruce Smith, 2003. "Monetary policy and financial market evolution," Review, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, vol. 85(Jul), pages 7-26.
    21. King, Robert G. & Levine, Ross, 1993. "Finance, entrepreneurship and growth: Theory and evidence," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 32(3), pages 513-542, December.
    22. Schreft, Stacey L. & Smith, Bruce D., 1997. "Money, Banking, and Capital Formation," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 73(1), pages 157-182, March.
    23. Martin Čihák & Asli Demirgüç-Kunt, 2012. "Financial Structure and Incentives," National Institute Economic Review, National Institute of Economic and Social Research, vol. 221(1), pages 23-30, July.
    24. Barnes, Michelle & Boyd, John H. & Smith, Bruce D., 1999. "Inflation and asset returns," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 43(4-6), pages 737-754, April.
    25. Khan, Mohsin S. & Senhadji, Abdelhak S. & Smith, Bruce D., 2006. "Inflation And Financial Depth," Macroeconomic Dynamics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 10(2), pages 165-182, April.
    26. John H. Boyd & Pedro Gomis-Porqueras & Sungkyu Kwak & Bruce David Smith, 2014. "A User's Guide to Banking Crises," Annals of Economics and Finance, Society for AEF, vol. 15(2), pages 800-892, November.
    27. Bruce Smith, 2003. "Taking intermediation seriously," Proceedings, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland, pages 1319-1377.
    28. Azariadis, Costas & Smith, Bruce, 1998. "Financial Intermediation and Regime Switching in Business Cycles," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 88(3), pages 516-536, June.
    29. John H. Boyd & Ross Levine & Bruce Smith, 1996. "Inflation and financial market performance," Working Papers (Old Series) 9617, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland.
    30. Bullard, James & Keating, John W., 1995. "The long-run relationship between inflation and output in postwar economies," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 36(3), pages 477-496, December.
    31. Azariadis, Costas & Smith, Bruce D, 1996. "Private Information, Money, and Growth: Indeterminacy, Fluctuations, and the Mundell-Tobin Effect," Journal of Economic Growth, Springer, vol. 1(3), pages 309-332, September.
    32. Beck, Thorsten & Demirguc-Kunt, Asli & Maksimovic, Vojislav, 2002. "Financial and legal constraints to firm growth - Does size matter?," Policy Research Working Paper Series 2784, The World Bank.
    33. Honohan, Patrick, 2003. "Avoiding the pitfalls in taxing financial intermediation," Policy Research Working Paper Series 3056, The World Bank.
    34. Choudhry, Taufiq, 2001. "Inflation and rates of return on stocks: evidence from high inflation countries," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 11(1), pages 75-96, March.
    35. Ali Kutan & Tansu Aksoy, 2003. "Public Information Arrival and the Fisher Effect in Emerging Markets: Evidence from Stock and Bond Markets in Turkey," Journal of Financial Services Research, Springer;Western Finance Association, vol. 23(3), pages 225-239, June.
    36. John H. Boyd & Sangmok Choi & Bruce Smith, 1996. "Inflation, financial markets and capital formation," Proceedings, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, vol. 78(May), pages 9-35.
    37. Bryant, John, 1980. "A model of reserves, bank runs, and deposit insurance," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 4(4), pages 335-344, December.
    38. Michelle L. Barnes & Anthony W. Hughes, 2002. "A quantile regression analysis of the cross section of stock market returns," Working Papers 02-2, Federal Reserve Bank of Boston.
    39. Bruce D. Smith, 2002. "Monetary Policy, Banking Crises, and the Friedman Rule," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 92(2), pages 128-134, May.
    40. Timothy S. Fuerst & Charles T. Carlstrom, 1998. "Agency costs and business cycles," Economic Theory, Springer;Society for the Advancement of Economic Theory (SAET), vol. 12(3), pages 583-597.
    41. Asli Demirgüç-Kunt & Enrica Detragiache, 1998. "The Determinants of Banking Crises in Developing and Developed Countries," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 45(1), pages 81-109, March.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Khan, Mohsin S. & Senhadji, Abdelhak S. & Smith, Bruce D., 2006. "Inflation And Financial Depth," Macroeconomic Dynamics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 10(2), pages 165-182, April.
    2. Beatrix Paal & Bruce D. Smith, 2013. "The sub-optimality of the Friedman rule and the optimum quantity of money," Annals of Economics and Finance, Society for AEF, vol. 14(2), pages 911-948, November.
    3. Huybens, Elisabeth & Smith, Bruce D., 1999. "Inflation, financial markets and long-run real activity," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 43(2), pages 283-315, April.
    4. Matsuoka, Tarishi, 2012. "Imperfect interbank markets and the lender of last resort," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 36(11), pages 1673-1687.
    5. Boyd, John H. & Levine, Ross & Smith, Bruce D., 2001. "The impact of inflation on financial sector performance," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 47(2), pages 221-248, April.
    6. Bittencourt, Manoel, 2011. "Inflation and financial development: Evidence from Brazil," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 28(1), pages 91-99.
    7. Gorton, Gary & Winton, Andrew, 2003. "Financial intermediation," Handbook of the Economics of Finance, in: G.M. Constantinides & M. Harris & R. M. Stulz (ed.), Handbook of the Economics of Finance, edition 1, volume 1, chapter 8, pages 431-552, Elsevier.
    8. John H. Boyd & Pedro Gomis-Porqueras & Sungkyu Kwak & Bruce David Smith, 2014. "A User's Guide to Banking Crises," Annals of Economics and Finance, Society for AEF, vol. 15(2), pages 800-892, November.
    9. Paula Hernandez-Verme, 2009. "Inflation, Growth and Exchange Rate Regimes in Small Open Economies," Department of Economics and Finance Working Papers EC200906, Universidad de Guanajuato, Department of Economics and Finance.
    10. Andres, Javier & Hernando, Ignacio & Lopez-Salido, J. David, 2004. "The role of the financial system in the growth-inflation link: the OECD experience," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 20(4), pages 941-961, November.
    11. Barnes, Michelle & Boyd, John H. & Smith, Bruce D., 1999. "Inflation and asset returns," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 43(4-6), pages 737-754, April.
    12. Tarishi Matsuoka & Makoto Watanabe, 2017. "Banking Panics and Liquidity in a Monetary Economy," Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers 17-091/VII, Tinbergen Institute.
    13. Ben Naceur Samy & Ghazouani Samir, 2005. "Does Inflation Impact on Financial Sector Performance in the MENA Region?," Review of Middle East Economics and Finance, De Gruyter, vol. 3(3), pages 48-58, December.
    14. Matsuoka, Tarishi & Watanabe, Makoto, 2019. "Banking crises and liquidity in a monetary economy," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 108(C).
    15. Huang, Ho-Chuan & Lin, Shu-Chin & Kim, Dong-Hyeon & Yeh, Chih-Chuan, 2010. "Inflation and the finance-growth nexus," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 27(1), pages 229-236, January.
    16. Bekaert, Geert & Harvey, Campbell R. & Lundblad, Christian, 2005. "Does financial liberalization spur growth?," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 77(1), pages 3-55, July.
    17. James B. Ang, 2008. "A Survey Of Recent Developments In The Literature Of Finance And Growth," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 22(3), pages 536-576, July.
    18. Carton, Christine & Ronquillo, Cely, 2008. "Determinantes del crecimiento económico e intermediación bancaria: un análisis empírico para países latinoamericanos [Determinants of economic growth and bank intermediation: empirical analysis for," MPRA Paper 15514, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 25 Nov 2008.
    19. Ho, Sin-Yu, 2017. "The Macroeconomic Determinants of Stock Market Development: Evidence from South Africa," MPRA Paper 76493, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    20. Sin-Yu Ho & Bernard Njindan Iyke, 2017. "Determinants of stock market development: a review of the literature," Studies in Economics and Finance, Emerald Group Publishing Limited, vol. 34(1), pages 143-164, March.

    More about this item

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:fip:fedcwp:0317. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: 4D Library (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/frbclus.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.