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Monetary Union and the Interest-Exchange Rate Trade-off

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  • Bohn, Frank

Abstract

By using a multi-country simulation model this paper analyzes the qualitative effects of joining a monetary union. The transition to EMU (European Monetary Union) is shown to produce interest and exchange rate changes with substantial and countervailing effects on the real economy which can be traced through the model. Observable anticipation effects in the wake of the EMU are substantiated; and some policy recommendations for joining any monetary union are derived. It is also shown that fixing conversion rates at last-day market rates produces a unique outcome and not exchange rate indeterminacy as argued by de Grauwe (1997), Obstfeld (1998), and others.

Suggested Citation

  • Bohn, Frank, 2003. "Monetary Union and the Interest-Exchange Rate Trade-off," Economics Discussion Papers 8857, University of Essex, Department of Economics.
    • Handle: RePEc:esx:essedp:8857
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    1. Jürgen Hagen & Stefan Lutz, 1996. "Fiscal and monetary policy on the way to EMU," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 7(4), pages 299-325, October.
    2. Fair, Ray C & Taylor, John B, 1983. "Solution and Maximum Likelihood Estimation of Dynamic Nonlinear Rational Expectations Models," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 51(4), pages 1169-1185, July.
    3. De Grauwe, Paul & Dewachter, Hans & Veestraeten, Dirk, 1999. "Price dynamics under stochastic process switching: some extensions and an application to EMU1," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 18(2), pages 195-224, February.
    4. Paul Masson & Jacques Melitz, 1991. "Fiscal policy independence in a European Monetary Union," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 2(2), pages 113-136, June.
    5. Bas Van Aarle & Jacob Engwerda & Joseph Plasmans & Arie Weeren, 2001. "Macroeconomic Policy Interaction under EMU: A Dynamic Game Approach," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 12(1), pages 29-60, January.
    6. Hughes Hallett, Andrew & McAdam, Peter, 1996. "Fiscal Deficit Reductions in Line with the Maastricht Criteria for Monetary Union: An Empirical Analysis," CEPR Discussion Papers 1351, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    7. Fielding, David & Shields, Kalvinder, 2001. "Modelling macroeconomic shocks in the CFA Franc Zone," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 66(1), pages 199-223, October.
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    2. Bohn, Frank, 2006. "Maastricht Criteria versus Stability Pact," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 28(3), pages 247-276, April.
    3. Joseph Plasmans & Jacob Engwerda & Bas Aarle & Tomasz Michalak, 2009. "Analysis of a monetary union enlargement in the framework of linear-quadratic differential games," International Economics and Economic Policy, Springer, vol. 6(2), pages 135-156, July.

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