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Maastricht criteria versus stability pact

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  • Frank Bohn

Abstract

It is generally believed that fiscal consolidations should occur prior to a country's admission to the European Monetary Union (EMU). This paper argues that the fiscal Maastricht Criteria require badly timed, costly adjustments while not guaranteeing sustained Fiscal restraint. An effective Stability Pact is not only necessary, but should replace the Maastricht Criteria altogether. These conclusions are based on simulations scrutinising the effects both of contractionary fiscal policies and of joining a monetary union. In a case study type analysis it is shown that there is a strong case for both policy changes to happen at the same time.

Suggested Citation

  • Frank Bohn, 2005. "Maastricht criteria versus stability pact," Working Papers 200506, School of Economics, University College Dublin.
  • Handle: RePEc:ucn:wpaper:200506
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    File URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10197/1313
    File Function: First version, 2005
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Alberto Alesina & Roberto Perotti, 1995. "Fiscal Expansions and Fiscal Adjustments in OECD Countries," NBER Working Papers 5214, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    2. Jürgen Hagen & Stefan Lutz, 1996. "Fiscal and monetary policy on the way to EMU," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 7(4), pages 299-325, October.
    3. Alesina, Alberto & Perotti, Roberto, 1995. "Taxation and redistribution in an open economy," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 39(5), pages 961-979, May.
    4. Paul Masson & Jacques Melitz, 1991. "Fiscal policy independence in a European Monetary Union," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 2(2), pages 113-136, June.
    5. Frank Bohn, 2004. "Monetary Union and the Interest-Exchange Rate Trade-off," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 15(2), pages 111-141, April.
    6. Hughes Hallett, A J & Vines, D, 1993. "On the Possible Costs of European Monetary Union," The Manchester School of Economic & Social Studies, University of Manchester, vol. 61(1), pages 35-64, March.
    7. Hughes Hallett, Andrew & Lewis, John, 2004. "Hansa vs Habsburg: Debt, Deficits and the Entry of Accession Countries into the Euro," CEPR Discussion Papers 4500, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    8. Mitchell, Peter R. & Sault, Joanne E. & Smith, Peter N. & Wallis, Kenneth F., 1998. "Comparing global economic models," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 15(1), pages 1-48, January.
    9. Mitchell, Peter R. & Sault, Joanne E. & Wallis, Kenneth F., 2000. "Fiscal policy rules in macroeconomic models: principles and practice," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 17(2), pages 171-193, April.
    10. Carol Corrado & Joe Mattey, 1997. "Capacity Utilization," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 11(1), pages 151-167, Winter.
    11. Hughes Hallett, Andrew & McAdam, Peter, 1996. "Fiscal Deficit Reductions in Line with the Maastricht Criteria for Monetary Union: An Empirical Analysis," CEPR Discussion Papers 1351, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    12. Gilles Oudiz & Jeffrey Sachs, 1984. "International Policy Coordination in Dynamic Macroeconomic Models," NBER Working Papers 1417, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Pierre Richard Agénor & Devrim Yilmaz, 2006. "The Tyranny of Rules: Fiscal Discipline, Productive Spending, and Growth," The School of Economics Discussion Paper Series 0616, Economics, The University of Manchester.
    2. Ferré, Montserrat, 2012. "The effects of uncertainty about countries’ compliance with the Stability and Growth Pact," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 34(5), pages 660-674.
    3. Halkos, George E. & Tzeremes, Nickolaos G., 2009. "Economic efficiency and growth in the EU enlargement," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 31(6), pages 847-862, November.
    4. Ferré, Montserrat, 2008. "Fiscal policy coordination in the EMU," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 30(2), pages 221-235.
    5. P R Agénor & D Yilmaz, 2006. "The Tyranny of Rules: Fiscal Discipline, Productive Spending, and Growth," Centre for Growth and Business Cycle Research Discussion Paper Series 73, Economics, The Univeristy of Manchester.
    6. Bonatti, Luigi & Cristini, Annalisa, 2008. "Breaking the Stability Pact: Was it predictable?," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 30(5), pages 793-810.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Transition to a monetary union; European Monetary Union; Fiscal policy; Regime change; MULTIMOD; Simulation; Economic and Monetary Union--Membership; Fiscal policy; Monetary unions;

    JEL classification:

    • E63 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Comparative or Joint Analysis of Fiscal and Monetary Policy; Stabilization; Treasury Policy
    • F47 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications
    • F42 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - International Policy Coordination and Transmission

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