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Fiscal and monetary policy on the way to EMU

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  • Jürgen Hagen
  • Stefan Lutz

Abstract

We present the simulations of fiscal adjustment policies to the Maastricht criteria in the European economies based on a rational-expectations model of the G7 economies. We find that an effort to achieve the fiscal criteria inflicts pronounced recessions on the European economies. Furthermore, the fiscal and the inflation criteria lack consistency. A return to fixed exchange rates in Europe worsens the results of fiscal retrenchment in Europe. All of this implies that a “hard” interpretation of the criteria is neither a desirable nor a credible strategy for EMU. Copyright Kluwer Academic Publishers 1996

Suggested Citation

  • Jürgen Hagen & Stefan Lutz, 1996. "Fiscal and monetary policy on the way to EMU," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 7(4), pages 299-325, October.
  • Handle: RePEc:kap:openec:v:7:y:1996:i:4:p:299-325
    DOI: 10.1007/BF01886367
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Bertola, Giuseppe & Drazen, Allan, 1993. "Trigger Points and Budget Cuts: Explaining the Effects of Fiscal Austerity," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 83(1), pages 11-26, March.
    2. Francesco Giavazzi & Marco Pagano, 1990. "Can Severe Fiscal Contractions Be Expansionary? Tales of Two Small European Countries," NBER Chapters, in: NBER Macroeconomics Annual 1990, Volume 5, pages 75-122, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    3. Francesco Giavazzi & Marco Pagano, 1995. "Non-Keynesian Effects of Fiscal Policy Changes: International Evidence and the Swedish Experience," NBER Working Papers 5332, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    4. Fratianni, Michele & von Hagen, Juergen, 1990. "The European Monetary System ten years after," Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy, Elsevier, vol. 32(1), pages 173-241, January.
    5. Fratianni, M. & Von Hagen, J. & Waller, C., 1992. "The Maastricht Way to EMU," Princeton Studies in International Economics 187, International Economics Section, Departement of Economics Princeton University,.
    6. Hughes Hallett, Andrew & McAdam, Peter, 1996. "Fiscal Deficit Reductions in Line with the Maastricht Criteria for Monetary Union: An Empirical Analysis," CEPR Discussion Papers 1351, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
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    Cited by:

    1. Carlos Mulas-Granados, 2003. "The Trade-Off between Growth & Equality and the Economic Impact of Alternative Fiscal Adjustment Strategies in the EU," European Economy Group Working Papers 20, European Economy Group.
    2. Belén Fernández Castro, "undated". "El Equilibrio Presupuestario: Las Restricciones Sobre El Déficit," Working Papers 30-04 Classification-JEL , Instituto de Estudios Fiscales.
    3. Bohn, Frank, 2006. "Maastricht Criteria versus Stability Pact," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 28(3), pages 247-276, April.
    4. Frank Bohn, 2004. "Monetary Union and the Interest-Exchange Rate Trade-off," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 15(2), pages 111-141, April.

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