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Stochastic Extended Path

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  • Adjemian, Stéphane
  • Juillard, Michel

Abstract

The Stochastic Extended Path (SEP) method enhances the traditional Extended Path technique by integrating numerical methods to estimate conditional expectations. In contrast to the deterministic Extended Path, which presumes that future shocks will align with their expected values, SEP accommodates stochastic non-linearity by performing integration over future shocks. We employ numerical techniques, including Gaussian quadrature and unscented transforms, to efficiently approximate integrals while alleviating the challenges posed by the curse of dimensionality. To further enhance accuracy, we propose a hybrid strategy that merges SEP with perturbation methods to effectively address long-run uncertainty effects. We evaluate the performance of SEP in an asset pricing model with a closed-form solution and demonstrate the methodology using a Real Business Cycle (RBC) model featuring irreversible investment.

Suggested Citation

  • Adjemian, Stéphane & Juillard, Michel, 2025. "Stochastic Extended Path," Dynare Working Papers 84, CEPREMAP.
  • Handle: RePEc:cpm:dynare:084
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Kenneth L. Judd, 1998. "Numerical Methods in Economics," MIT Press Books, The MIT Press, edition 1, volume 1, number 0262100711, December.
    2. Guerrieri, Luca & Iacoviello, Matteo, 2015. "OccBin: A toolkit for solving dynamic models with occasionally binding constraints easily," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 70(C), pages 22-38.
    3. Collard, Fabrice & Juillard, Michel, 2001. "Accuracy of stochastic perturbation methods: The case of asset pricing models," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 25(6-7), pages 979-999, June.
    4. David R.F. Love, 2009. "Accuracy of Deterministic Extended-Path Solution Methods for Dynamic Stochastic Optimization Problems in Macroeconomics," Working Papers 0907, Brock University, Department of Economics.
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