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Shadow Bank run, Housing and Credit Market: The Story of a Recession

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  • Hamed Ghiaie

    () (Université de Cergy-Pontoise, THEMA)

Abstract

This paper proposes a DSGE model with bank runs which improves Gertler and Kiyotaki (2015) to assess the impact of housing and credit markets in financial instability and shadow banking activities. This paper illustrates that a negative TFP shock is amplified by macro-financial and macro-housing channels through household’s balance sheet, bank’s balance sheet and liquidity channels. If the shock makes the shadow banking system insolvent, two equilibria, no-run and run equilibrium, coexist. In this view, run is a sunspot coordination failure; if households receive a negative signal from fundamentals and stop rolling over deposits to the financial sector, banks are not able to fund their losses by new deposits. So they are forced to liquidate their assets at an endogenous fire sale price. The main finding of this paper is that the model with housing comprehensively details the consequences of economic crises, namely home price double-dip, the output downward spiral and lengthy recovery period. In addition, the paper indicates that macroprudential policy tools in the form of capital adequacy buffers and loan-to-value ratios can be helpful for eliminating bank-run equilibrium. They safeguard the economy against extreme busts and help mitigate systemic risks by insulating asset prices.

Suggested Citation

  • Hamed Ghiaie, 2018. "Shadow Bank run, Housing and Credit Market: The Story of a Recession," THEMA Working Papers 2018-01, THEMA (THéorie Economique, Modélisation et Applications), Université de Cergy-Pontoise.
  • Handle: RePEc:ema:worpap:2018-01
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Shadow banking; Bank run; Recession; Sunspot equilibrium; Double-dip.;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E23 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Production
    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
    • E44 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy
    • G21 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Banks; Other Depository Institutions; Micro Finance Institutions; Mortgages
    • G33 - Financial Economics - - Corporate Finance and Governance - - - Bankruptcy; Liquidation

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