IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/ema/worpap/2018-01.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Shadow Bank run: The Story of a Recession

Author

Listed:
  • Hamed Ghiaie

    () (Université de Cergy-Pontoise, THEMA)

Abstract

This paper proposes a DSGE model of liquidity mismatch and bank runs, which incorporates housing and credit markets. The paper shows that a real shock is amplified by the financial sector through household balance sheets, bank balance sheets and market liquidity channels. The shock, depending on macroeconomic fundamentals, may shift the economy from a no-bank run to a bank run equilibrium. In the case of bank run equilibrium, households stop rolling over their deposits and banks are forced to liquidate their assets at fire sale prices. This paper shows that introducing the housing and credit markets shortens the sunspots’ lifetime while asset liquidity prices reduce. In addition, this paper comprehensively details the consequences of economic crises, namely the output downward spiral, home price double-dip and lengthy recovery period. Here, it is indicated that macropruential policy tools in the form of capital adequacy buffers and loan-to-value ratios safeguard the economy against extreme busts and help mitigate systemic risks by insulating asset prices.

Suggested Citation

  • Hamed Ghiaie, 2018. "Shadow Bank run: The Story of a Recession," THEMA Working Papers 2018-01, THEMA (THéorie Economique, Modélisation et Applications), Université de Cergy-Pontoise.
  • Handle: RePEc:ema:worpap:2018-01
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://thema.u-cergy.fr/IMG/pdf/2018-01.pdf
    Download Restriction: no

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Occhino Filippo & Pescatori Andrea, 2014. "Leverage, investment, and optimal monetary policy," The B.E. Journal of Macroeconomics, De Gruyter, vol. 14(1), pages 1-21, January.
    2. Markus K. Brunnermeier & Yuliy Sannikov, 2014. "A Macroeconomic Model with a Financial Sector," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 104(2), pages 379-421, February.
    3. Alejandro Justiniano & Giorgio Primiceri & Andrea Tambalotti, 2015. "Household leveraging and deleveraging," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 18(1), pages 3-20, January.
    4. Claessens, Stijn & Ghosh, Swati R. & Mihet, Roxana, 2013. "Macro-prudential policies to mitigate financial system vulnerabilities," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 39(C), pages 153-185.
    5. Iacoviello, Matteo, 2004. "Consumption, house prices, and collateral constraints: a structural econometric analysis," Journal of Housing Economics, Elsevier, vol. 13(4), pages 304-320, December.
    6. Tim Landvoigt & Stijn Van Nieuwerburgh & Vadim Elenev, 2016. "A Macroeconomic Model with Financially Constrained Producers and Intermediaries," 2016 Meeting Papers 1224, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    7. Markus K. Brunnermeier & Thomas M. Eisenbach & Yuliy Sannikov, 2012. "Macroeconomics with Financial Frictions: A Survey," Levine's Working Paper Archive 786969000000000384, David K. Levine.
    8. Buchak, Greg & Matvos, Gregor & Piskorski, Tomasz & Seru, Amit, 2017. "Fintech, Regulatory Arbitrage, and the Rise of Shadow Banks," Research Papers 3511, Stanford University, Graduate School of Business.
    9. Hanson, Samuel G. & Shleifer, Andrei & Stein, Jeremy C. & Vishny, Robert W., 2015. "Banks as patient fixed-income investors," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 117(3), pages 449-469.
    10. Martin C. Schmalz & David A. Sraer & David Thesmar, 2017. "Housing Collateral and Entrepreneurship," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 72(1), pages 99-132, February.
    11. Barry Eichengreen, 2004. "Viewpoint: Understanding the Great Depression," Canadian Journal of Economics, Canadian Economics Association, vol. 37(1), pages 1-27, February.
    12. Yehning Chen & Iftekhar Hasan, 2008. "Why Do Bank Runs Look Like Panic? A New Explanation," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 40(2-3), pages 535-546, March.
    13. Douglas W. Diamond & Philip H. Dybvig, 2000. "Bank runs, deposit insurance, and liquidity," Quarterly Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis, issue Win, pages 14-23.
    14. Matteo Iacoviello, 2015. "Financial Business Cycles," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 18(1), pages 140-164, January.
    15. Mark Gertler & Nobuhiro Kiyotaki, 2015. "Banking, Liquidity, and Bank Runs in an Infinite Horizon Economy," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 105(7), pages 2011-2043, July.
    16. Bernanke, Ben S. & Gertler, Mark & Gilchrist, Simon, 1999. "The financial accelerator in a quantitative business cycle framework," Handbook of Macroeconomics,in: J. B. Taylor & M. Woodford (ed.), Handbook of Macroeconomics, edition 1, volume 1, chapter 21, pages 1341-1393 Elsevier.
    17. Jeanne, Olivier & Masson, Paul, 2000. "Currency crises, sunspots and Markov-switching regimes," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 50(2), pages 327-350, April.
    18. Douglas Gale & Piero Gottardi, 2015. "Capital Structure, Investment, and Fire Sales," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 28(9), pages 2502-2533.
    19. Laeven, Luc & Ratnovski, Lev & Tong, Hui, 2016. "Bank size, capital, and systemic risk: Some international evidence," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 69(S1), pages 25-34.
    20. Lawrence J. Christiano & Martin Eichenbaum & Charles L. Evans, 2005. "Nominal Rigidities and the Dynamic Effects of a Shock to Monetary Policy," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 113(1), pages 1-45, February.
    21. Giri, Federico & Riccetti, Luca & Russo, Alberto & Gallegati, Mauro, 2016. "Monetary policy and large crises in a financial accelerator agent-based model," FinMaP-Working Papers 65, Collaborative EU Project FinMaP - Financial Distortions and Macroeconomic Performance: Expectations, Constraints and Interaction of Agents.
    22. S. Viswanathan & Adriano A. Rampini, 2010. "Financial Intermediary Capital," 2010 Meeting Papers 1071, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    23. Cerutti, Eugenio & Claessens, Stijn & Laeven, Luc, 2017. "The use and effectiveness of macroprudential policies: New evidence," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 28(C), pages 203-224.
    24. Harold L. Cole & Timothy J. Kehoe, 2000. "Self-Fulfilling Debt Crises," Review of Economic Studies, Oxford University Press, vol. 67(1), pages 91-116.
    25. Arnold Cheng & Michael Fung, 2008. "Financial market and housing wealth effects on consumption: a permanent income approach," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 40(23), pages 3029-3038.
    26. Matteo F. Ghilardi & Shanaka J. Peiris, 2016. "Capital Flows, Financial Intermediation and Macroprudential Policies," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 27(4), pages 721-746, September.
    27. Christiano, Lawrence J., 2017. "The Great Recession: A Macroeconomic Earthquake," Economic Policy Paper 17-1, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis.
    28. Adrian, Tobias & Liang, J. Nellie, 2014. "Monetary policy, financial conditions, and financial stability," Staff Reports 690, Federal Reserve Bank of New York, revised 01 Dec 2016.
    29. Frank Smets & Rafael Wouters, 2007. "Shocks and Frictions in US Business Cycles: A Bayesian DSGE Approach," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 97(3), pages 586-606, June.
    30. repec:eee:moneco:v:89:y:2017:i:c:p:25-44 is not listed on IDEAS
    31. Mark Gertler & Nobuhiro Kiyotaki & Andrea Prestipino, 2016. "Anticipated Banking Panics," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 106(5), pages 554-559, May.
    32. Ramon Moreno, 2011. "Policymaking from a "macroprudential" perspective in emerging market economies," BIS Working Papers 336, Bank for International Settlements.
    33. Tullio Jappelli & Marco Pagano, 1994. "Saving, Growth, and Liquidity Constraints," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 109(1), pages 83-109.
    34. Roger E.A. Farmer, 2015. "Global Sunspots and Asset Prices in a Monetary Economy," NBER Working Papers 20831, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    35. Nicole Boyson & Jean Helwege & Jan Jindra, 2014. "Crises, Liquidity Shocks, and Fire Sales at Commercial Banks," Financial Management, Financial Management Association International, vol. 43(4), pages 857-884, December.
    36. Meenakshi Basant Roi & Rhys R. Mendes, 2007. "Should Central Banks Adjust Their Target Horizons in Response to House-Price Bubbles?," Discussion Papers 07-4, Bank of Canada.
    37. Karl Walentin, 2014. "Housing Collateral and the Monetary Transmission Mechanism," Scandinavian Journal of Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 116(3), pages 635-668, July.
    38. Gertler, Mark & Karadi, Peter, 2011. "A model of unconventional monetary policy," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 58(1), pages 17-34, January.
    39. Chen, Nan-Kuang & Chen, Shiu-Sheng & Chou, Yu-Hsi, 2010. "House prices, collateral constraint, and the asymmetric effect on consumption," Journal of Housing Economics, Elsevier, vol. 19(1), pages 26-37, March.
    40. Zhiguo He & Arvind Krishnamurthy, 2013. "Intermediary Asset Pricing," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 103(2), pages 732-770, April.
    41. Gertler, Mark & Kiyotaki, Nobuhiro & Queralto, Albert, 2012. "Financial crises, bank risk exposure and government financial policy," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 59(S), pages 17-34.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Shadow banking; Bank run; Recession; Sunspot equilibrium; Double-dip.;

    JEL classification:

    • E23 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Production
    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
    • E44 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy
    • G21 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Banks; Other Depository Institutions; Micro Finance Institutions; Mortgages
    • G33 - Financial Economics - - Corporate Finance and Governance - - - Bankruptcy; Liquidation

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:ema:worpap:2018-01. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Stefania Marcassa). General contact details of provider: http://edirc.repec.org/data/themafr.html .

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service hosted by the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis . RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.