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U.S. Natural Gas Exports and their Global Impacts

  • Vipin Arora
  • Yiyong Cai

We evaluate potential global impacts of increase in U.S. natural gas exports as a result of the shale gas boom. To our knowledge this is the first such analysis using a global economic model to understand this timely policy issue. Our primary conclusion is that world economic activity is higher through most of the simulation period [2014-2035] when U.S. natural gas exports rise. The overall U.S. results mirror the global ones, but the magnitude of income gains depends upon how the rate of increase and level of exports are determined, and the price elasticity of natural gas supply. The U.S. benefits more when export increases and levels depend on natural gas production rather than when they are pre-determined by assumption. The economic impacts on other natural gas importers and exporters can change as well based on how export levels are determined. The effects on natural gas prices, consumption, and production in individual countries vary with the scenarios and model parameter values.

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File URL: https://cama.crawford.anu.edu.au/sites/default/files/publication/cama_crawford_anu_edu_au/2014-02/22_2014_arora_cai.pdf
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Paper provided by Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis, Crawford School of Public Policy, The Australian National University in its series CAMA Working Papers with number 2014-22.

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Length: 27 pages
Date of creation: Feb 2014
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:een:camaaa:2014-22
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  1. Nel, Willem P. & van Zyl, Gerhardus, 2010. "Defining limits: Energy constrained economic growth," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 87(1), pages 168-177, January.
  2. Chappuis, Thomas & Terrie Walmsley, 2011. "Projections for World CGE Model Baselines," GTAP Research Memoranda 3728, Center for Global Trade Analysis, Department of Agricultural Economics, Purdue University.
  3. Logan, Jeffrey & Lopez, Anthony & Mai, Trieu & Davidson, Carolyn & Bazilian, Morgan & Arent, Douglas, 2013. "Natural gas scenarios in the U.S. power sector," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 40(C), pages 183-195.
  4. Arora, Vipin, 2014. "Estimates of the Price Elasticities of Natural Gas Supply and Demand in the United States," MPRA Paper 54232, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  5. Wakamatsu, Hiroki & Aruga, Kentaka, 2013. "The impact of the shale gas revolution on the U.S. and Japanese natural gas markets," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 62(C), pages 1002-1009.
  6. Apergis, Nicholas & Payne, James E., 2010. "Natural gas consumption and economic growth: A panel investigation of 67 countries," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 87(8), pages 2759-2763, August.
  7. Sheng, Yu & Shi, Xunpeng, 2013. "Energy market integration and equitable growth across countries," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 104(C), pages 319-325.
  8. Sharma, Susan Sunila, 2010. "The relationship between energy and economic growth: Empirical evidence from 66 countries," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 87(11), pages 3565-3574, November.
  9. Kevin L. Kliesen, 2006. "Rising natural gas prices and real economic activity," Review, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, issue Nov, pages 511-526.
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