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U.S. Natural Gas Exports and their Global Impacts


  • Vipin Arora
  • Yiyong Cai


We evaluate potential global impacts of increase in U.S. natural gas exports as a result of the shale gas boom. To our knowledge this is the first such analysis using a global economic model to understand this timely policy issue. Our primary conclusion is that world economic activity is higher through most of the simulation period [2014-2035] when U.S. natural gas exports rise. The overall U.S. results mirror the global ones, but the magnitude of income gains depends upon how the rate of increase and level of exports are determined, and the price elasticity of natural gas supply. The U.S. benefits more when export increases and levels depend on natural gas production rather than when they are pre-determined by assumption. The economic impacts on other natural gas importers and exporters can change as well based on how export levels are determined. The effects on natural gas prices, consumption, and production in individual countries vary with the scenarios and model parameter values.

Suggested Citation

  • Vipin Arora & Yiyong Cai, 2014. "U.S. Natural Gas Exports and their Global Impacts," CAMA Working Papers 2014-22, Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis, Crawford School of Public Policy, The Australian National University.
  • Handle: RePEc:een:camaaa:2014-22

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    Cited by:

    1. Zhang, Qi & Li, Zhan & Wang, Ge & Li, Hailong, 2016. "Study on the impacts of natural gas supply cost on gas flow and infrastructure deployment in China," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 162(C), pages 1385-1398.
    2. repec:eee:enepol:v:106:y:2017:i:c:p:41-47 is not listed on IDEAS
    3. Cai, Yiyong & Newth, David & Finnigan, John & Gunasekera, Don, 2015. "A hybrid energy-economy model for global integrated assessment of climate change, carbon mitigation and energy transformation," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 148(C), pages 381-395.
    4. repec:eee:appene:v:199:y:2017:i:c:p:88-95 is not listed on IDEAS
    5. Edwards, Joel & Othman, Maazuza & Burn, Stewart, 2015. "A review of policy drivers and barriers for the use of anaerobic digestion in Europe, the United States and Australia," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 52(C), pages 815-828.
    6. Zou, Youqin & Yang, Changbing & Wu, Daishe & Yan, Chun & Zeng, Masun & Lan, Yingying & Dai, Zhenxue, 2016. "Probabilistic assessment of shale gas production and water demand at Xiuwu Basin in China," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 180(C), pages 185-195.
    7. Yuan, Jiehui & Luo, Dongkun & Feng, Lianyong, 2015. "A review of the technical and economic evaluation techniques for shale gas development," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 148(C), pages 49-65.
    8. Geng, Jiang-Bo & Ji, Qiang & Fan, Ying, 2014. "A dynamic analysis on global natural gas trade network," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 132(C), pages 23-33.
    9. Middleton, Richard S. & Carey, J. William & Currier, Robert P. & Hyman, Jeffrey D. & Kang, Qinjun & Karra, Satish & Jiménez-Martínez, Joaquín & Porter, Mark L. & Viswanathan, Hari S., 2015. "Shale gas and non-aqueous fracturing fluids: Opportunities and challenges for supercritical CO2," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 147(C), pages 500-509.

    More about this item


    natural gas; exports; shale; general equilibrium; international;

    JEL classification:

    • E17 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - General Aggregative Models - - - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications
    • F47 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications
    • Q31 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Nonrenewable Resources and Conservation - - - Demand and Supply; Prices
    • Q43 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Energy - - - Energy and the Macroeconomy

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