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Rising natural gas prices and real economic activity

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Abstract

In the aftermath of the disruptions caused by hurricanes Katrina and Rita, natural gas prices rose to record-high levels. Because natural gas is an important energy source for the U.S. economy, there was widespread concern that these high prices might cause a significant slowing in the economy - especially among those manufacturing industries that heavily consume natural gas. The analysis presented in this article suggests that output is responsive to natural gas prices in some manufacturing sectors. Although perhaps significant, this result must be balanced against the finding that, when the analysis is extended to the macroeconomy (real gross domestic product growth), increases in crude oil prices significantly predict real gross domestic product growth, but natural gas prices do not.

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  • Kevin L. Kliesen, 2006. "Rising natural gas prices and real economic activity," Review, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, vol. 88(Nov), pages 511-526.
    • Handle: RePEc:fip:fedlrv:y:2006:i:nov:p:511-526:n:v.88no.6
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    1. Martin Neil Baily, 1981. "Productivity and the Services of Capital and Labor," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 12(1), pages 1-66.
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    1. Arora, Vipin & Cai, Yiyong, 2014. "U.S. natural gas exports and their global impacts," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 120(C), pages 95-103.
    2. Xu, Zhiwei & Wang, Xuefei & Zhang, Teng, 2024. "The international natural gas price and its cross-sectional pricing implication: Evidence from Chinese stock market," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 313(C).
    3. Geng, Jiang-Bo & Xu, Xiao-Yue & Ji, Qiang, 2020. "The time-frequency impacts of natural gas prices on US economic activity," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 205(C).
    4. Ioannis Dokas & Georgios Oikonomou & Minas Panagiotidis & Eleftherios Spyromitros, 2023. "Macroeconomic and Uncertainty Shocks’ Effects on Energy Prices: A Comprehensive Literature Review," Energies, MDPI, vol. 16(3), pages 1-35, February.
    5. Arora Vipin, 2014. "Aggregate impacts of recent US natural gas trends," The B.E. Journal of Macroeconomics, De Gruyter, vol. 14(1), pages 419-443, January.
    6. Payne, James E. & Loomis, David G. & Wilson, Renardo, 2011. "Residential Natural Gas Demand in Illinois: Evidence from the ARDL Bounds Testing Approach," Journal of Regional Analysis and Policy, Mid-Continent Regional Science Association, vol. 41(2), pages 1-10.
    7. Ribeiro Scarcioffolo, Alexandre & Etienne, Xiaoli L., "undated". "Does Economic Policy Uncertainty Affect Energy Market Volatility and Vice-Versa?," 2018 Annual Meeting, August 5-7, Washington, D.C. 273976, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association.
    8. Arora, Vipin & Lieskovsky, Jozef, 2012. "Natural Gas and U.S. Economic Activity," MPRA Paper 42659, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    9. Ji, Qiang & Geng, Jiang-Bo & Fan, Ying, 2014. "Separated influence of crude oil prices on regional natural gas import prices," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 70(C), pages 96-105.
    10. Y lmaz BAYAR & Cuneyt KILIC, 2014. "Effects of Oil and Natural Gas Prices on Industrial Production in the Eurozone Member Countries," International Journal of Energy Economics and Policy, Econjournals, vol. 4(2), pages 238-247.
    11. Michelfelder, Richard A. & Pilotte, Eugene A., 2024. "U.S. vertically integrated electric utility greenhouse gas emissions and carbon risk premiums around the Paris Accord," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 195(C).
    12. Torul Orhan & Alper C. Emre, 2010. "Asymmetric Effects of Oil Prices on the Manufacturing Sector in Turkey," Review of Middle East Economics and Finance, De Gruyter, vol. 6(1), pages 90-105, July.
    13. repec:aen:journl:ej35-3-08 is not listed on IDEAS

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