IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/bpj/bejmac/v14y2014i1p25n15.html

Aggregate impacts of recent US natural gas trends

Author

Listed:
  • Arora Vipin

    (US Energy Information Administration, 1000 Independence Ave S.W. Washington District of Columbia 20585, USA)

Abstract

Predictions about the macroeconomic impacts of recent US natural gas trends vary widely. I re-evaluate the possible effects on US economic activity using a standard general equilibrium model. Within this framework I show that increases in natural gas supply result in small-to-moderate economic gains, even with unemployment or under-utilized capital. Subsequent rises in economy-wide productivity are the key to magnifying the economic impacts of greater natural gas supply and resources. I also find that the macroeconomic effects of greater domestic oil production differ from those of natural gas.

Suggested Citation

  • Arora Vipin, 2014. "Aggregate impacts of recent US natural gas trends," The B.E. Journal of Macroeconomics, De Gruyter, vol. 14(1), pages 419-443, January.
    • Handle: RePEc:bpj:bejmac:v:14:y:2014:i:1:p:25:n:15
    DOI: 10.1515/bejm-2013-0109
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://doi.org/10.1515/bejm-2013-0109
    Download Restriction: For access to full text, subscription to the journal or payment for the individual article is required.
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1515/bejm-2013-0109?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to look for a different version below or

    for a different version of it.

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Kinnaman, Thomas C., 2011. "The economic impact of shale gas extraction: A review of existing studies," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 70(7), pages 1243-1249, May.
    2. Greenwood, Jeremy & Hercowitz, Zvi & Huffman, Gregory W, 1988. "Investment, Capacity Utilization, and the Real Business Cycle," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 78(3), pages 402-417, June.
    3. Kevin L. Kliesen, 2006. "Rising natural gas prices and real economic activity," Review, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, vol. 88(Nov), pages 511-526.
    4. Arora, Vipin & Lieskovsky, Jozef, 2012. "Natural Gas and U.S. Economic Activity," MPRA Paper 42659, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    5. Galí, Jordi, 2010. "Monetary Policy and Unemployment," Handbook of Monetary Economics, in: Benjamin M. Friedman & Michael Woodford (ed.), Handbook of Monetary Economics, edition 1, volume 3, chapter 10, pages 487-546, Elsevier.
    6. Robert J. Gordon, 2000. "Does the "New Economy" Measure Up to the Great Inventions of the Past?," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 14(4), pages 49-74, Fall.
    7. Bodenstein, Martin & Erceg, Christopher J. & Guerrieri, Luca, 2011. "Oil shocks and external adjustment," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 83(2), pages 168-184, March.
    8. Marimon, Ramon & Scott, Andrew (ed.), 1999. "Computational Methods for the Study of Dynamic Economies," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, number 9780198294979.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Arora, Vipin, 2017. "Shale and the US Economy: Three Counterfactuals," MPRA Paper 79672, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    2. Arora, Vipin, 2018. "Natural Gas and the US Economy: Some Preliminary Rules of Thumb," MPRA Paper 87279, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    3. repec:aen:journl:ej35-3-08 is not listed on IDEAS

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Klein, Alexander & Otsuy, Keisuke, 2013. "Efficiency, Distortions and Factor Utilization during the Interwar Period," CAGE Online Working Paper Series 147, Competitive Advantage in the Global Economy (CAGE).
    2. Jonathan Heathcote, 2003. "On the Distributional Effects of Reducing Capital Taxes (previously: Factor Taxation with Heterogeneous Agents)," Working Papers gueconwpa~03-03-22, Georgetown University, Department of Economics.
    3. Basu, Susanto & Fernald, John G. & Shapiro, Matthew D., 2001. "Productivity growth in the 1990s: technology, utilization, or adjustment?," Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy, Elsevier, vol. 55(1), pages 117-165, December.
    4. Matthew D Shapiro, 2003. "Has the rate of economic growth changed? Evidence and lessons for public policy," Reserve Bank of New Zealand Discussion Paper Series DP2003/07, Reserve Bank of New Zealand.
    5. Bodenstein, Martin & Kamber, Güneş & Thoenissen, Christoph, 2018. "Commodity prices and labour market dynamics in small open economies," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 115(C), pages 170-184.
    6. Andrei Polbin & Sergey Drobyshevsky, 2014. "Developing a Dynamic Stochastic Model of General Equilibrium for the Russian Economy," Research Paper Series, Gaidar Institute for Economic Policy, issue 166P, pages 156-156.
    7. Olayinka Oyekola, 2022. "How Resilient Is the U.S. Economy to Foreign Disturbances?," Mathematics, MDPI, vol. 10(9), pages 1-33, April.
    8. Andr�s Gonz�lez & Sergio Ocampo & Diego Rodr�guez & Norberto Rodr�guez, 2011. "Asimetr�as del empleo y el producto, una aproximaci�n de equilibrio general," Borradores de Economia 8890, Banco de la Republica.
    9. Richard W. Evans & Kerk L. Phillips, 2018. "Advantages of an Ellipse when Modeling Leisure Utility," Computational Economics, Springer;Society for Computational Economics, vol. 51(3), pages 513-533, March.
    10. Lan, Hong & Meyer-Gohde, Alexander, 2013. "Decomposing risk in dynamic stochastic general equilibrium," SFB 649 Discussion Papers 2013-022, Humboldt University Berlin, Collaborative Research Center 649: Economic Risk.
    11. Yusuf Soner Başkaya & Timur Hülagü & Hande Küçük, 2013. "Oil Price Uncertainty in a Small Open Economy," IMF Economic Review, Palgrave Macmillan;International Monetary Fund, vol. 61(1), pages 168-198, April.
    12. Galí, Jordi & Rabanal, Pau, 2004. "Technology Shocks and Aggregate Fluctuations: How Well Does the RBC Model Fit Post-War US Data?," CEPR Discussion Papers 4522, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    13. Gantert, Konstantin, 2022. "The impact of active aggregate demand on utilisation-adjusted TFP," IWH Discussion Papers 9/2022, Halle Institute for Economic Research (IWH).
    14. Giovanni Nicolo, 2020. "Monetary Policy, Self-Fulfilling Expectations and the U.S. Business Cycle," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2020-035, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    15. repec:aen:journl:ej38-6-martinmoreno is not listed on IDEAS
    16. repec:hum:wpaper:sfb649dp2006-023 is not listed on IDEAS
    17. Nikolay Hristov, 2016. "The Ifo DSGE Model for the German Economy," ifo Working Paper Series 210, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich.
    18. Dániel Baksa & István Kónya, 2021. "Convergence stories of post‐socialist Central‐Eastern European countries," Manchester School, University of Manchester, vol. 89(3), pages 239-258, June.
    19. Alex Klein & Keisuke Otsu, 2013. "Efficiency, Distortions and Factor Utilization during the Interwar Period," Studies in Economics 1317, School of Economics, University of Kent.
    20. Yukhov, Alexey, 2021. "Long-term implications of oil discoveries for international saving in a DSGE model," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 67(C).
    21. Peter Ireland & Scott Schuh, 2008. "Productivity and U.S. Macroeconomic Performance: Interpreting the Past and Predicting the Future with a Two-Sector Real Business Cycle Model," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 11(3), pages 473-492, July.
    22. Hornstein Andreas & Uhlig Harald, 2000. "What is the Real Story for Interest Rate Volatility?," German Economic Review, De Gruyter, vol. 1(1), pages 43-67, February.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    ;
    ;
    ;
    ;
    ;
    ;

    JEL classification:

    • D24 - Microeconomics - - Production and Organizations - - - Production; Cost; Capital; Capital, Total Factor, and Multifactor Productivity; Capacity
    • E17 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - General Aggregative Models - - - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications
    • E27 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications
    • Q43 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Energy - - - Energy and the Macroeconomy

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:bpj:bejmac:v:14:y:2014:i:1:p:25:n:15. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Peter Golla (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://www.degruyterbrill.com .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.