Fiscal policy and sectoral spillovers in open-economy HANK

Government spending falls disproportionately on non-tradable services. We show empirically that government spending shocks stimulate private consumption along with sizable spillovers to the goods sector and a relative decline in goods prices. We rationalize these findings with a two-sector open-economy HANK model. Uninsurable income risk and precautionary savings lead to a persistent income-driven expansion in private consumption. In the tradable sector, import intensity and limited labor reallocation dampen wage pass-through to prices, matching observed co-movements. The resulting expenditure switching produces a positive tradable output response despite deteriorating net exports. Household heterogeneity and trade openness jointly shape sectoral fiscal multipliers. JEL Classification: E62, F41, E21, C11, C32