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Excess Savings and Twin Deficits: The Transmission of Fiscal Stimulus in Open Economies

Author

Listed:
  • Rishabh Aggarwal
  • Adrien Auclert
  • Matthew Rognlie
  • Ludwig Straub

Abstract

We study the effects of debt-financed fiscal transfers in a general equilibrium, heterogeneous-agent model of the world economy. In the long run, increases in government debt anywhere raise the world interest rate and increase private wealth everywhere. In the short run, a country with a larger-than-average fiscal deficit experiences both a large increase in private savings (“excess savings”) and a small but persistent current account deficit (a slow-motion “twin deficit”). These patterns are consistent with the evolution of the world’s balance of payments since the beginning of the Covid pandemic.
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Suggested Citation

  • Rishabh Aggarwal & Adrien Auclert & Matthew Rognlie & Ludwig Straub, 2023. "Excess Savings and Twin Deficits: The Transmission of Fiscal Stimulus in Open Economies," NBER Macroeconomics Annual, University of Chicago Press, vol. 37(1), pages 325-412.
    • Handle: RePEc:ucp:macann:doi:10.1086/723586
    DOI: 10.1086/723586
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    Cited by:

    1. Julian di Giovanni & Şebnem Kalemli-Özcan & Alvaro Silva & Muhammed A Yildirim, "undated". "Pandemic-era Inflation Drivers and Global Spillovers," RBA Annual Conference Papers acp2023-01, Reserve Bank of Australia, revised Nov 2023.
    2. Adrien Auclert & Matthew Rognlie & Ludwig Straub, 2024. "The Intertemporal Keynesian Cross," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 132(12), pages 4068-4121.
    3. Bellifemine, Marco & Couturier, Adrien & Jamilov, Rustam, 2025. "Monetary unions with heterogeneous fiscal space," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 156(C).
    4. Rodolfo G. Campos & Jesús Fernández-Villaverde & Galo Nuño & Peter Paz, 2024. "Navigating by Falling Stars: Monetary Policy with Fiscally Driven Natural Rates," NBER Working Papers 32219, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    5. Thiago R.T. Ferreira & Nils Gornemann & Julio L. Ortiz, 2025. "Household Excess Savings and the Transmission of Monetary Policy," International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 21(2), pages 1-36, April.
    6. Paul Ho & Pierre-Daniel G. Sarte & Felipe Schwartzman, 2022. "Multilateral Comovement in a New Keynesian World: A Little Trade Goes a Long Way," Working Paper 22-10, Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond.
    7. Bayer, Christian & Kriwoluzky, Alexander & Müller, Gernot J. & Seyrich, Fabian, 2024. "A HANK2 model of monetary unions," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 147(S).
    8. Xiaoshan Chen & Spyridon Lazarakis & Petros Varthalitis, 2023. "Debt targets and fiscal consolidation in a two-country HANK model for the Euro Area," Working Papers 374162075, Lancaster University Management School, Economics Department.
    9. Xiaoshan Chen & Spyridon Lazarakis & Petros Varthalitis, 2023. "Debt targets and fiscal consolidation in a two country HANK model: the case of Euro Area," Department of Economics Working Papers 2023_02, Durham University, Department of Economics.
    10. Mohimont, Jolan & de Sola Perea, Maite & Zachary, Marie-Denise, 2024. "Softening the blow: Job retention schemes in the pandemic," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 238(C).

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • E21 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Consumption; Saving; Wealth
    • E62 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Fiscal Policy; Modern Monetary Theory
    • F32 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Current Account Adjustment; Short-term Capital Movements
    • F41 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Open Economy Macroeconomics

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