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Household Excess Savings and the Transmission of Monetary Policy

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Abstract

Household savings rose above trend in many developed countries after the onset of COVID-19. Given its link to aggregate consumption, the presence of these "excess savings" has raised questions about their implications for the transmission of monetary policy. Using a panel of euro-area economies and high-frequency monetary policy shocks, we document that household excess savings dampen the effects of monetary policy on economic activity and inflation, especially during the pandemic period. To rationalize our empirical findings, we build a New Keynesian model in which households use savings to self-insure against counter-cyclical unemployment and consumption risk.

Suggested Citation

  • Thiago Revil T. Ferreira & Nils M. Gornemann & Julio L. Ortiz, 2024. "Household Excess Savings and the Transmission of Monetary Policy," International Finance Discussion Papers 1397, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    • Handle: RePEc:fip:fedgif:1397
    DOI: 10.17016/IFDP.2024.1397
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    1. Mr. Hyun S Shin, 2013. "Procyclicality and the Search for Early Warning Indicators," IMF Working Papers 2013/258, International Monetary Fund.
    2. John C. Driscoll & Aart C. Kraay, 1998. "Consistent Covariance Matrix Estimation With Spatially Dependent Panel Data," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 80(4), pages 549-560, November.
    3. Bu, Chunya & Rogers, John & Wu, Wenbin, 2021. "A unified measure of Fed monetary policy shocks," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 118(C), pages 331-349.
    4. Francois de Soyres & Dylan Moore & Julio L. Ortiz, 2023. "Accumulated Savings During the Pandemic: An International Comparison with Historical Perspective," FEDS Notes 2023-06-23-2, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    5. Rishabh Aggarwal & Adrien Auclert & Matthew Rognlie & Ludwig Straub, 2023. "Excess Savings and Twin Deficits: The Transmission of Fiscal Stimulus in Open Economies," NBER Macroeconomics Annual, University of Chicago Press, vol. 37(1), pages 325-412.
    6. Scotti, Chiara, 2016. "Surprise and uncertainty indexes: Real-time aggregation of real-activity macro-surprises," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 82(C), pages 1-19.
    7. Alpanda, Sami & Granziera, Eleonora & Zubairy, Sarah, 2021. "State dependence of monetary policy across business, credit and interest rate cycles," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 140(C).
    8. Harald Badinger & Stefan Schiman, 2023. "Measuring Monetary Policy in the Euro Area Using SVARs with Residual Restrictions," American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 15(2), pages 279-305, April.
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    2. Ece Fisgin & Joaquin Garcia-Cabo & Alex Haag & Mitch Lott, 2025. "Expanding the Labor Market Lens: Two New Eurozone Labor Indicators," International Finance Discussion Papers 1415, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).

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    Keywords

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    JEL classification:

    • E12 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - General Aggregative Models - - - Keynes; Keynesian; Post-Keynesian; Modern Monetary Theory
    • E21 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Consumption; Saving; Wealth
    • E24 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Employment; Unemployment; Wages; Intergenerational Income Distribution; Aggregate Human Capital; Aggregate Labor Productivity
    • E31 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Price Level; Inflation; Deflation
    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy

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