IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/mnt/wpaper/2204.html

The Transmission of International Monetary Policy Shocks to Firms' Expectations

Author

Listed:
  • Serafin Frache

  • Rodrigo Lluberas
  • Mathieu Pedemonte
  • Javier Turen

Abstract

Motivated by the dominant role of the US dollar, we explore how monetary policy (MP) shocks in the US can affect a small open economy through the expectation channel. We combine data from a panel survey of firms’ expectations in Uruguay with granular information about firms’ debt position and total imports on a monthly basis. We show that a contractionary MP shock in the US reduces firms’ inflation and cost expectations in Uruguay. This result contrasts with the inflationary effect of this shock on the Uruguayan economy, suggesting uncertainty about the policy regime. We discuss the issues and challenges of this expectation channel.

Suggested Citation

  • Serafin Frache & Rodrigo Lluberas & Mathieu Pedemonte & Javier Turen, 2022. "The Transmission of International Monetary Policy Shocks to Firms' Expectations," Documentos de Trabajo/Working Papers 2204, Facultad de Ciencias Empresariales y Economia. Universidad de Montevideo..
    • Handle: RePEc:mnt:wpaper:2204
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www2.um.edu.uy/fcee_papers/2020/The_Transmission_of_International_Monetary_Policy_Shocks_to_Firms_Expectations.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Olivier Coibion & Yuriy Gorodnichenko & Saten Kumar, 2018. "How Do Firms Form Their Expectations? New Survey Evidence," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 108(9), pages 2671-2713, September.
    2. Òscar Jordà, 2005. "Estimation and Inference of Impulse Responses by Local Projections," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 95(1), pages 161-182, March.
    3. Serafin Frache & Rodrigo Lluberas & Javier Turen, 2021. "Belief-Dependent Pricing Decisions," Documentos de Trabajo/Working Papers 2101, Facultad de Ciencias Empresariales y Economia. Universidad de Montevideo..
    4. Riccardo Degasperi & Seokki Simon Hong & Giovanni Ricco, 2020. "The Global Transmission of U.S Monetary Policy," ERSA Working Paper Series, Economic Research Southern Africa, vol. 0.
    5. Rey, Hélène, 2015. "Dilemma not Trilemma: The Global Financial Cycle and Monetary Policy Independence," CEPR Discussion Papers 10591, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    6. Nittai Bergman & Benjamin Born & David A. Matsa & Michael Weber, 2022. "Inclusive Monetary Policy: How Tight Labor Markets Facilitate Broad-Based Employment Growth," NBER Working Papers 29651, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    7. Ethan Ilzetzki & Carmen M Reinhart & Kenneth S Rogoff, 2019. "Exchange Arrangements Entering the Twenty-First Century: Which Anchor will Hold?," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 134(2), pages 599-646.
    8. Flaccadoro, Marco & Nispi Landi, Valerio, 2025. "Foreign monetary policy and domestic inflation in emerging markets," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 159(C).
    9. Mark Gertler & Peter Karadi, 2015. "Monetary Policy Surprises, Credit Costs, and Economic Activity," American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 7(1), pages 44-76, January.
    10. repec:rza:wpaper:814 is not listed on IDEAS
    11. Konstantin Egorov & Dmitry Mukhin, 2020. "Optimal Policy under Dollar Pricing," Working Papers w0261, New Economic School (NES).
    12. Francesco D’Acunto & Ulrike Malmendier & Juan Ospina & Michael Weber, 2021. "Exposure to Grocery Prices and Inflation Expectations," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 129(5), pages 1615-1639.
    13. Emi Nakamura & Jón Steinsson, 2018. "High-Frequency Identification of Monetary Non-Neutrality: The Information Effect," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 133(3), pages 1283-1330.
    14. Jordi Galí & Tommaso Monacelli, 2005. "Monetary Policy and Exchange Rate Volatility in a Small Open Economy," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 72(3), pages 707-734.
    15. Marek Jarociński & Peter Karadi, 2020. "Deconstructing Monetary Policy Surprises—The Role of Information Shocks," American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 12(2), pages 1-43, April.
    16. Bu, Chunya & Rogers, John & Wu, Wenbin, 2021. "A unified measure of Fed monetary policy shocks," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 118(C), pages 331-349.
    17. Guillermo A. Calvo & Carmen M. Reinhart, 2002. "Fear of Floating," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 117(2), pages 379-408.
    18. Olivier Coibion & Yuriy Gorodnichenko & Tiziano Ropele, 2020. "Inflation Expectations and Firm Decisions: New Causal Evidence," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 135(1), pages 165-219.
    19. Frache, Serafin & Lluberas, Rodrigo & Turen, Javier, 2024. "Belief-dependent pricing decisions," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 132(C).
    20. Juan Herreño & Mathieu Pedemonte, 2022. "The Geographic Effects of Monetary Policy," Working Papers 22-15, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Giancarlo Corsetti & Keith Kuester & Gernot J. Müller & Sebastian Schmidt, 2021. "The Exchange Rate Insulation Puzzle," ECONtribute Discussion Papers Series 060, University of Bonn and University of Cologne, Germany.
    2. Taylor, Alan M. & Cloyne, James & Hürtgen, Patrick, 2022. "Global Monetary and Financial Spillovers: Evidence from a New Measure of Bundesbank Policy Shocks," CEPR Discussion Papers 17587, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    3. Karau, Sören, 2023. "Monetary policy and Bitcoin," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 137(C).
    4. Santiago Camara, 2021. "Spillovers of US Interest Rates: Monetary Policy & Information Effects," Papers 2111.08631, arXiv.org, revised Feb 2023.
    5. Santiago Camara & Maximo Sangiacomo, 2022. "Borrowing Constraints in Emerging Markets," Papers 2211.10864, arXiv.org.
    6. Ilzetzki, Ethan & Jin, Keyu, 2021. "The puzzling change in the international transmission of U.S. macroeconomic policy shocks," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 130(C).
    7. Ha, Jongrim & Kim, Dohan & Kose, M. Ayhan & Prasad, Eswar S., 2025. "Resolving puzzles of monetary policy transmission in emerging markets," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 173(C).
    8. Camara, Santiago, 2025. "Spillovers of US interest rates: Monetary policy & information effects," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 154(C).
    9. Guillaume Bazot & Eric Monnet & Matthias Morys, 2024. "Central banks and the absorption of international shocks (1891-2019)," Working Papers halshs-04778323, HAL.
    10. Ilzetzki, Ethan & Jin, Keyu, 2021. "The puzzling change in the international transmission of U.S. macroeconomic policy shocks," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 130(C).
    11. Pablo Aguilar Perez, 2024. "Global Spillovers of US Monetary Policy: New Insights from the Remittance Channel," Working Papers hal-04706954, HAL.
    12. Breitenlechner, Max & Georgiadis, Georgios & Schumann, Ben, 2022. "What goes around comes around: How large are spillbacks from US monetary policy?," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 131(C), pages 45-60.
    13. Georgiadis, Georgios & Jančoková, Martina, 2020. "Financial globalisation, monetary policy spillovers and macro-modelling: Tales from 1001 shocks," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 121(C).
    14. Kalemli-Özcan, Sebnem, 2019. "US Monetary Policy and International Risk Spillovers," CEPR Discussion Papers 14053, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    15. Wataru Miyamoto & Thuy Lan Nguyen & Dmitry Sergeyev, 2023. "How Oil Shocks Propagate: Evidence on the Monetary Policy Channel," Working Paper Series 2024-06, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
    16. Karau, Sören, 2021. "Monetary policy and Bitcoin," Discussion Papers 41/2021, Deutsche Bundesbank.
    17. Kerstin Bernoth, 2025. "Dovish Coos or Hawkish Screech? From Central Bank Talk to Economic Walk," Discussion Papers of DIW Berlin 2137, DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research.
    18. Christoph Kaufmann, 2023. "Investment Funds, Monetary Policy, and the Global Financial Cycle," Journal of the European Economic Association, European Economic Association, vol. 21(2), pages 593-636.
    19. Tim Munday & James Brookes, 2021. "Mark my words: the transmission of central bank communication to the general public via the print media," Bank of England working papers 944, Bank of England.
    20. Ding Dong & Zheng Liu & Pengfei Wang & Min Wei, 2024. "Inflation Disagreement Weakens the Power of Monetary Policy," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2024-094, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).

    More about this item

    Keywords

    ;
    ;
    ;

    JEL classification:

    • E31 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Price Level; Inflation; Deflation
    • E58 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Central Banks and Their Policies
    • F41 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Open Economy Macroeconomics
    • D84 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty - - - Expectations; Speculations
    • E71 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macro-Based Behavioral Economics - - - Role and Effects of Psychological, Emotional, Social, and Cognitive Factors on the Macro Economy

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:mnt:wpaper:2204. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Juan Briozzo (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/fceumuy.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.